LongHaul

Pelosi and other of leadership should at least wear a surgical mask. Wearing a cloth mask is a last resort as it is the least effective type. She probably has an even less effective type as it looks like a scarf or something. I read dishtowels were good. The contrast is with the East Asian Country leaders who are consistently wearing surgical masks. And I disagree with the N95 for the healthcare workers. If the everyone in the US wore N95 almost noone would go to the hospitals. The US should distribute N95 masks to everyone in the US. I guess some people will die rather than learn.

Good point. A number of regimes - will likely change.

Haha. My brother and I used to cut each other hair when we were kids. He is younger. I would go second and usually push the electric razor into his head cutting a small line of hair out and then I would say "oops". Poor kid looked like he had a bunch of lines in his head.

Pelosi face mask - scarf or whatever she is wearing picture https://thehill.com/homenews/house/497196-house-democrats-press-pelosi-for-automatic-unemployment-insurance-and-food Kind of Amazing that she is wearing a fabric mask. It is better than nothing but not by much. The fact that she is not wearing an N95 or Surgical masks tells you a lot - she is totally clueless about how to seriously kill the virus with masks. Pathetic - and this is the Democratic leadership. (the mask might be fashionable - yeah!) Basically what we have is massive stupidity at high levels of govt - both Republicans and Democrats steering this thing. The deaths from their incompetence will be large. Begs the question - why should we trust them with any other issues if they can't even get this right. BTW - Americans seems like the some of the most spoiled, entitled, selfish and stupid people on the planet. There are parts of American culture that I like but the lack of focus on community at times and selflessness is disgusting. At times we must put aside or emotional wants for the greater good. If you might have the virus and spread it and kill people how is that different from murder?

I also think that if China's massive real estate bubble blows up that it could result in the Communist party collapse and democracy for China.

What Extreme Events may take place during the pandemic? The main ones that I think are quite likely: 1. Sovereign debt defaults - Italy, Greece, etc. After the great depression there was a wave of sovereign defaults. I would not loan Italy 1 Euro. ~13% of the economy is tourism, it was 135% net debt to GDP prior to the crisis, weak economy, Euro as a currency and highly corrupt society. So on the 10 year Italian bonds you make ~2%, but could lose >60% in a default. No thanks. With ~2.5 trillion of debt this could easily cause a huge financial panic around the world. 2. Higher inflation in many countries from governments pissing away money rather than letting free markets work. Plus central banks easy money policies. 3. Real estate crashes with banking crisis in many part of the world. Thoughts?

Andy Slavitt is 100% right. Is it that complicated to copy the best? Leadership is incredibly important - a leader can take you over a cliff or pull a drowning team out of a river to safety. People follow leaders. Especially those of the same ideology. I would follow Trump if he was rational and effective in this pandemic and I do have a big allowance for mistakes in the fog of war with this. I have made a ton on the virus and try to keep learning. There are a lot of psychological bias' at play with leaders- Authority, Social proof, Association, Doubt Avoidance, Stress and reason respecting that are at work. That is why any leader needs to be an exemplar. Trump has been much of the opposite. Trump has and likely will continue to do a horrible job on many, many metrics. (I do hope he wises up on the masks). Trump is still not wearing a mask. He is still not wearing a mask. He is still not wearing a mask. Oh - did I mention he is still not wearing a mask. Even when he goes to a mask factory. Even when he is around others that may have it. China and South Korea and tons of data now show wearing masks is super effective. The first lady promotes masks (I give her credit!). Trump's #1 job is reducing the R0. That is by far the most important thing for him. And it has been a total joke. I am sure he has incredibly capable scientists at the CDC, etc but where are they? Why can't I listen to more of them? Why doesn't he let them lead? If I am totally outclassed in an area I stand aside to let someone more effective do their job. A few other points. 1. The false negative rate for Covid-19 tests could be up to 30%. Might be problems with when they do the swabs. That means that anyone that has any symptoms needs to quarantine for 14 days. 2. If I was in Canada or Australia I agree with TwoCities - I would expect a Depression. Was primed for one anyway and then pandemic hit. 3. Great Depression - there were a lot of benefits of the Great Depression - built character and a whole generation of bankers and consumers and businesses learned to be prudent with money. No financial crisis for over 30 years after. Not that I wish for another but perhaps when lessons have been forgotten or ignored one has to come back so people can learn.

Japan is a fascinating case study. Another East Asian Country that I would give an A+. My neighbor was a high level protein researcher and we have discussed it a lot. 1. They wear masks. Before Covid they would wear masks culturally - if sick, allergies, etc. 2. Social distancing - bows, etc. 3. Quieter culture. The louder a culture is perhaps the more the virus spreads. Explains the big mouth New York theory! 4. Clean culture of washing hands carefully, etc. I think the biggest thing is the masks though. Reduces the RO a ton. I am not sure if I posted this but Island in Northern Japan had increase in virus after pressure to open up https://time.com/5826918/hokkaido-coronavirus-lockdown/ In my opinion the US has handled this whole thing very badly (could have been worse though) because of Trump not being an intelligent and effective leader. The reality is that in the US this has turned into the survival of the fittest - if you have a weakened immune system or put yourself at risk you are more likely to die.

Ahhh Leases. This was a major hidden risk that is no longer off balance sheet and still not fully understood (even by me!) If you are in business you can generally either own or lease. Owning you have to put up capital and pay the expenses. Leasing you don't have to put up the ownership capital but are now obligated to pay the lease. Essentially it is a financing transaction where the business, if leasing, has decided to pay monthly for capital over time - essentially with an interest rate included - to someone else who lays out the capital. There is no questions that all else equal the business that owns the real estate is safer than the one that leases it. And lease defaulting/liability is correlated with economic downturns. A business is contractually obligated to pay the remaining lease payments. I think there are really 2 aspects to the lease liability. 1. The remaining payments that a business is liable for. For worse case liability purposes. 2. The amount of capital that the business would require if the owned all the real estate (for ROIC purposes) I have made a few mistakes with leases and try to avoid them and try to consider them very carefully when investing. If the future lease payments are big in relation to the equity value I generally just pass. It is really just extra leverage that gets many businesses in trouble. But they can always declare bankruptcy and reject them ....

"Why are N-95 respirators most often recommended for SARS? The CDC Guidelines for Isolation Precautions in Hospitals recommends that health care workers protect themselves from any disease spread through the air (airborne transmission) by wearing a respirator at least as protective as a fit-tested N-95 respirator.† These guidelines were written before SARS was discovered, but they have been used to protect against other airborne diseases such as tuberculosis." Respirator fact sheet https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/topics/respirators/factsheets/respsars.html

FYI Terminology A mortality rate — often confused with a CFR — is a measure of the number of deaths (in general, or due to a specific cause) in a population scaled to the size of that population per unit of time.[2] A CFR, in contrast, is the number of dead among the number of diagnosed cases.[3] Technically, CFRs, which take values between 0 and 1 (or 0% and 100%, i.e., nothing and unity), are actually a measure of risk — that is, they are a proportion of incidence. They are not rates, incidence rates, or ratios (none of which are limited to the range 0-1). Hence, even though the terms “case fatality rate” and “CFR” appear often in the scientific literature, if one wishes to be very precise, they are incorrectly used, because they do not always, in every instance, take into account time from disease onset to death.[4][5] Sometimes the term case fatality ratio is used interchangeably with case fatality rate, but they are not the same. Case fatality ratio is the comparison between two different case fatality rates, expressed as ratio. It also can be used to compare different diseases or to assess the impact of an intervention.[6] The term infection fatality rate (IFR) also applies to infectious disease outbreaks, and represents the proportion of deaths among all the infected individuals. It is closely related to the CFR, but attempts to additionally account for all asymptomatic and undiagnosed infections.[7] The IFR differs from the CFR in that it aims to estimate the fatality rate in all those with infection: the detected disease (cases) and those with an undetected disease (asymptomatic and not tested group).[8] (Individuals who are infected, but always remain asymptomatic, are said to have "inapparent" — or silent, or subclinical — infections.) The IFR will always be lower than the CFR as long as all deaths are accurately attributed to either the infected or the non-infected class.

If a million people die (regardless of age) the economy would be trash anyways. Probably worse than it is right now (if that’s possible). Can you expand on this? If a million people die... would the economy necessarily be trashed? I'm interested in thoughts on this. -- I suppose if we got to point of 1million dead, we would have completely overwhelmed the health care system, and a lot more doctors and nurses would sicken and die from COVID. And many people would die from untreated heart attacks (et al) due to lack of medical care. If 1 million people die over 6 months or 1 year that is 30 bps of the US population. But the US population was growing around 70 bps per year so still some slight population growth. I don't know how much the economy would go down in a no stay at home situation (probably less though).

BTW - math on cost per life is very high for the US government. My assumptions (just guesses) Number of people would have died from Covid if just kept everything open: 1 million Incremental cost to economy: $ 2 trillion Cost per life: $2 million I am not sure if the average age but it may be ~76-80 It is interesting because I am guessing the market value in a court settlement would be much less.

This is a good question - here is what I see for 2nd and 3rd order effects. 1. Housing bubbles and real estate bubbles around the world. China, Canada, Aussie, and many more. Those are likely to go down a lot with serious hits all around. 2. Banks tightening with big losses - I would not be surprised if many banks went under from real estate collapsing or country debt problems down the line. With 10-20x leverage you don't need much to go under. Who knows what is in their portfolios. I don't think the CEO's even know. 3. Consumers pulling back on all. 4. Businesses generally cutting spending especially cyclical ones. 5. Because the democracies have turned into a bunch of drunken sailors trying to bail everyone out of any kind of misfortune - I expect within the next few years many democracies getting into trouble. Then all hell breaks loose if the big economies actually have to default, have high inflation and much higher interest rates, etc. Why would I loan to these countries when they have no discipline to let individuals and corporations cut way back or go bankrupt? Country defaults could take years although I read that already at least 2 3rd world countries have defaulted. Where are some safe assets that one can put with a lot of liquidity? Norweigan bonds?

Great article. No matter your politics in the US - the last thing we all want is a dictator who slowly or quickly strips away our freedom. All Hail Dictator Trump also known as Mr. Deficit.

Nice find Liberty. Good thing I am a REDNECK! Vitamin D and respiratory tract infectionsVitamin D is a steroid hormone. It is available in small quantities in food, but the primary source is via endogenous synthesis. This process occurs in a stepwise manner that starts in the skin following exposure to ultraviolet light and continues in the liver and kidneys, where the vitamin's active hormone form is made. Since ultraviolet light is required for vitamin D synthesis, reduced exposure to the sun or having dark-colored skin impairs vitamin D production. Approximately 70 percent of people living in the United States are vitamin D insufficient and ~30 percent are deficient.Robust evidence suggests that vitamin D is protective against respiratory tract infections. Data from 25 randomized controlled trials from around the world demonstrate that daily or weekly supplementation of vitamin D reduced the risk of acute respiratory infection by more than 50 percent in people with low baseline vitamin D levels. People with higher baseline vitamin D levels also benefited, although the effect was more modest, with only a 10 percent risk reduction. Vitamin D and the renin-angiotensin-systemhttps://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1 I've been taking 5,000-8,000 UIs daily for a long time (10+ years), and lately I've been taking 10,000 UI/day. Make sure you take gelcaps and not dry tablets, it's fat soluble and much better absorbed that way. Also, with a big meal, better absorption there too. ok thx. FYI - my wife got a shot for Vitamin D (I don't remember the dosage) and it really hurt her knees. The dosage was way too much so be careful with dosage.

South Korea has done an incredible job of "killing" the Virus. They had ~ 8 new cases yesterday (source worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/). The number of cases in South Korea spiked in Feb 2020 and then were down drastically by March 9. South Korea had social distancing and distributed masks to all its citizens very early. I give them an A+ for effectiveness. Trump - could have seen this and just copied them for a national response. He did not and as a result I give him a C- because we have tons more cases and deaths. BTW I would also give almost all the other western governments very low marks. C+ to B- ish. Trump is still not wearing a mask and has not distributed them or suggested people wear them to my knowledge. Trump's wiring from birth is flawed. He is a narcissist, egomaniac, delusional, in denial, etc and he will never change. He is like the scorpion in the old tale about the frog crossing the river.

Nice find Liberty. Good thing I am a REDNECK! Vitamin D and respiratory tract infectionsVitamin D is a steroid hormone. It is available in small quantities in food, but the primary source is via endogenous synthesis. This process occurs in a stepwise manner that starts in the skin following exposure to ultraviolet light and continues in the liver and kidneys, where the vitamin's active hormone form is made. Since ultraviolet light is required for vitamin D synthesis, reduced exposure to the sun or having dark-colored skin impairs vitamin D production. Approximately 70 percent of people living in the United States are vitamin D insufficient and ~30 percent are deficient.Robust evidence suggests that vitamin D is protective against respiratory tract infections. Data from 25 randomized controlled trials from around the world demonstrate that daily or weekly supplementation of vitamin D reduced the risk of acute respiratory infection by more than 50 percent in people with low baseline vitamin D levels. People with higher baseline vitamin D levels also benefited, although the effect was more modest, with only a 10 percent risk reduction. Vitamin D and the renin-angiotensin-systemhttps://www.foundmyfitness.com/episodes/covid-19-episode-1

New chart on adherance to mask wearing and RO. Fascinating. https://masks4all.co/

Sweden looks ok - not great. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Complement to Cobafdek, in the middle of the (tribal) fight. Your question is difficult to answer (it feels like: What's the risk of shorting Tesla stock?) and it includes the evaluation of tail risk. Since my background has some relevance and since i need to address this question now, here's a tentative answer. It seems that the opening will be gradual and the rate of opening will be inversely proportional to virus resurgence. So you'll need to adjust your risk management for your area and with the evolving picture. I work with a scenario of localized and limited resurgence activity during the opening with no second or third wave although this could become low-grade seasonal. I'd say testing will be useful for certain areas of concern but it's hard to see how testing at large will be useful for local decisions. I would also add that herd immunity is not a black or white concept. Relative herd immunity may be much lower than the often 60-70% quoted. 1st risk: risk that you become a spreader without being sick This is a population-level risk but also an individual risk as you may bring the disease to loved ones who may be susceptible (known risk factors or even rarely idiosyncratic). Then, your cumulative (i share DocSnowball's realism about molecules and timeline) individual risk is likely lowish (and will evolve over a fairly long time), especially if you take basic precautions (basic distance, washing hands, and avoiding social contacts with older (or frail) friends or family members). The concept of position sizing (extent of your social participation along the activity risk spectrum you describe) could be applied as a degree of conviction that your area is safe (from publicly announced statistics, hospital activity level etc). 2nd risk: risk that you become significantly sick Apart from idiosyncratic risk, which is very low, your risk will be proportional to risk factors (age, lung disease, obesity, diabetes etc) with individual risk factors being likely more than additive and serious event risk going up exponentially with the overall level of frailty. Assuming not super vulnerable means no major risk factors, it seems that your risk of becoming significantly sick is very low (do your own work :) ). What you do as an individual is also tied to your risk personality. If you used to go for the flu vaccine every year versus not even worrying about becoming sick will have an influence on future behavior vs CV. It's possible CV becomes old news very rapidly especially if other events take eyeballs off the bug (and its consequences). @Jurgis: personally I wait for one incubation period to start to trust the data - cases in your state have gone down and stayed down for 14 days; and for two incubation periods for giving the all clear - cases are in single digits or zero in your state for 28 days. Try to phase your return back towards activities in that way. The most essential activities come first, and the lowest risk will be where you're not within 3-6 feet of others and are outdoors. The highest risk will be going to healthcare facilities and crowded indoor gatherings. One thing I've learned is this virus is 2 SD beyond what I've expected of it in spreading, so better to be safe than sorry. The fact that it spreads so easily in healthcare facilities (10k healthcare workers infected in the US!!! cities with public transport really hit hard) tells me there is effective transmission beyond droplets, perhaps it lives well on surfaces + asymptomatic/presymptomatic people spread it early on...(you fill in your thoughts) Maybe a smart idea to build a checklist of do's and don't to follow before, during and after going out and test-drive/refine it when you start going out. I'll try to get it started. Is this activity essential? What is the risk in this activity? How can it be substituted or minimized? Hand sanitizer - check. Wipes - check. Mask - check. Keeping social distance, minimizing touches, minimizing time spent/risk incurred in the activity Sanitize when done, dispose mask and take footwear off safely on return Hand washing when home Dispose clothes for washing later, hand washing again These are good suggestions. Thanks. This checklist is gold! thanks

Oh Trump is going to reopen. Wheww because I was worried about a pandemic. As long as he is in charge and I can clearly trust him because I know he has no blindspots or bias' or ideologies or a big ego that would totally turn his brain into cabbage... - I am being massively sarcastic - :) The pandemic is keeping people inside and will continue to do so. Not a government leader. How many are normalizing to this and getting numb to it? "Even if restrictions were eased by mid-April, 61% of Americans would still stay at home when possible — while only 19% said they’d go back to their regular life." https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/most-americans-will-stay-home-this-month-even-if-lockdown-lifted-poll/

super funny!

Actually this pandemic doesn't seem so bad ... it may actually turn out to be a good warning making us more prepared for a really nasty one. Black death ~30-50% of Europe died. And people stayed in to hunker down. Trump should have 1 job -Focus on how to decrease the R0 - and he is doing a horrible job of it. He should copy the East Asian countries and China - they have barely any cases.

If you have not seen this site recently they have really added a lot of data and information. Highly recommend it.