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indythinker85

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Posts posted by indythinker85

    Great article on behavioral finance

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Interesting comments from Lipper:

     

    I do not know when and from what sector a bubble will appear. Others have identified bubbles in 1929, 1962, 1987, 1998, 2000 and 2008. I could add some others that I have lived through. The main point is that we could be due for one, and it will be called an upside breakout to recognize how productive the world will be in the future. What has me particularly concerned is that various studies at Caltech and elsewhere have found that many participants in a simulated bubble knew it was risky, but were playing the so-called “bigger fool theory” — knowing full well that were paying too much but believing that they could sell at a bigger price. When the eventual decline is underway the most likely panickers will be the bigger fools turning on themselves. http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/11/behavior-patterns-help-hurt/

    Ackman has a new short! Fun times

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Ackman’s controversial Herbalife short also gained during October, as the stock fell 7 percent for the month after he announced in early October that he restructured his short bet. It has moved against him all year, with investors like Carl Icahn taking the opposite side.

    Ackman covered 40 percent of the equity short, replacing it with long-dated over-the-counter puts. The equity short is now about 10 percent of the portfolio.

     

    http://nypost.com/2013/11/04/ackman-making-a-4th-quarter-comeback/

    Italian Banks

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I couldnt evaluate these banks (or US ones) but iv been looking and invested in Europe (mostly Greece for two years already) anyone have list of some Italian banks with stronger balance sheets at cheap valuations? Id consider some as a basket. Thanks!

    Ben Bernanke: Slayer of Value Investors

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The article is complete garbage. Pretending to not "know" what true valuation metrics mean is just a cover to pitch a macro approach.

     

    I like his economic analysis, but whenever he ventures into the investment side of things I'm not a fan.

     

    I agree i dont consider myself a monetary realist but I enjoy Cullen's insights. However, I thought this piece was very weak for many reasons, least of which is he only referred to market valuations not stock specific valuations.

    Baupost Group Builds 28% Stake In Drug-Maker

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I looked at IDIX and other drug pharms for a while but could not understand anything, even though I have a degree in biology. :(

     

    LOL such a good quote. Its outside my circle but was just curious, I dont plan to buy the company. Interesting earlier post about Boston and medicine i was thinking along those lines. I did not realize Baupost has 180 employees thought it was closer to 100.

    Ackman has a new short! Fun times

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Looks like a small position:

    According to the October stat sheet, Pershing Square has 11 long positions and 2 short positions. The fund has -10% gross exposure in a large cap short and -1% gross exposure in a mid cap short. It would appear that the -10% net exposure in large cap short is Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) whereas the new short is a smaller one worth roughly $100 million. http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/11/ackman-herbalife-short/

    Anyone else still in Greek equities?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I am!

     

    I still my positions in "Greek Organization of Football Prognostics".  Which is one of the best names for a company that I've ever seen  ;D

     

    It has had a tremendous run lately, but is now starting to back off.

     

    If it rallies again and goes over $8/share, I would be very tempted to sell.

     

    LOL OPAP they are making some big changes there CFO just left this week I saw in their press release

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