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Palantir

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Posts posted by Palantir

    The Rise and Fall of Brands

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    That's not a very long or particularly illustrious list. He invested in Heinz because he got a good deal, he invested in Coke because it is a great business, same with Gillette and its razor-blade model. FTL is not a particularly notable brand. See's Candies is a good example, but there are not many, however, it continue to be attributed to him.

     

     

    Frankly, I think it is hard not to invest in brands when you are looking for great businesses, but that's just me.

    The Rise and Fall of Brands

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Why do you say that Buffett popularized the idea of investing in brands? Yeah he has made a few famous bets on KO, but apart from that, it has not been a cornerstone of his philosophy. I think this idea is mistakenly attributed to him, and in some cases is used as a justification arbitrarily...."its brand is an economic moat".

    Steve Ballmer Buys Clippers For 2 Billion!

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Why are you guys assuming that the 2 Billion price was based on a "valuation" of the team? Ballmer, I believe, has never thought along those lines, if he sees an asset that is strategic to his plans, he will pay what he thinks he can afford. My understanding is that his bid of 2B was designed to be well above any other bids and it would force a sale, even from an unwilling seller like Mr. Sterling.

    When is a completely free market bad?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I think an obvious example are with corporations that have externalities, things like pollution etc, where market mechanisms aren't enough to reverse harms.

     

     

    Other cases are in markets with incomplete and asymmetrical information. I'm sure you can think of obvious scenarios in healthcare.

    What stocks will make their owners rich over the next generation?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Berkshire is designed to run by WEB alone, I believe it is unrealistic to assume that someone else could simply step in to the post and run Berkshire smoothly. WEB is a skilled executive and an icon, it's difficult enough to replace his skill set and impossible to replace the icon. His successor will not have the stature, respect, or gravitas to command a team of stars, and I expect them to struggle after his departure. Given that WEB has been absolutely cryptic and unclear about succession planning, my prediction is the David Moyes scenario.  :-[

     

     

    Just IMHO of course.  :)

    What stocks will make their owners rich over the next generation?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Anyone thought about Under Armour (UA)? I don't see why they cannot be Nike and Adidas' equal.

     

    Adidas' market cap is ~22B$ vs UA's ~10B$, so even if UA catches up to them, it's not going to get you far.

     

    I think it is pretty far fetched to find a stock that makes you rich based on buy and hold right now, given, extended valuations and a pretty extended economic cycle (5 years into a recovery). Once we head into a recession and the market turns down 30% or more and some baby's do get thrown out with the bathwater, things will get easier.

     

    I agree it is difficult, but I don't think that means we shouldn't try....as you note, when valuations reverse you will be ready to pounce......

    What stocks will make their owners rich over the next generation?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    My issue with Tesla is that it is already a 20B firm, and larger in MCap than most car firms, so even if it replaces Mercedes, it will be a 90B firm....which is great, but nothing compared to the MSFT or BRK or AAPL of the world.

     

     

    AMZN could be up there. Given its growth rate, dominant position in an emerging cloud market, apex predator CEO etc etc. But again, it is already a 180B firm.

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