Mikenhe
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Posts posted by Mikenhe
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bring back the good old days when all we had to complain about was the runoff and the combined ratio exceeding 100% all the time.
I guess its a case of there will always been some big issues to complain about.....
as soon as you sort out the biggest issue - then the next one on the list becomes the biggest...
Runoff makes money, combined ratio is under 100%. They are good investment managers who look after all the cash being generated by the insurance operations. They also have hedges in place that will protect the company if the market goes tits up!!
I think that's a better strategy than cash under the mattress.
Its not a big part of my portfolio but its one I like having there...
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I don't suppose several years reading this board, investing my own money, being allowed to work in London legally and a desire to be paid a lot of money means I'm qualified for this job does it???
Or I can work remotely from Florida :D
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down in 2013 - thats not good
[current talking head mode] clearly lost his way and its indicative of a lack of confidence in the long term strategy.sell sell sell. [\current talking head mode]
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Since this thread has turned into a Q&A with Eric (which I really appreciate, btw! :) ), here's my question for Eric:
What would you estimate your record would have been without the use of leverage?
Probably mid-high teens maybe? Low 20s?
I'm okay with the reality that this was gambling. Better not to fool myself into thinking this was prudent investing. Maybe prudent gambling, but that's not the same as prudent investing. I think the research (not mine) into the ORH buyout, the CDS research (again, not mine), etc... that was like rigging the outcome of the game, and then betting on it. Only legal! So I like the profile picture of Rothstein -- I have gambled, only I think I've been as smart about it as I can get without being illegal.
I think he would be very much a fan of some of these bets.
Its gambling - but not in the conventional sense - more like card counting at blackjack... waiting until the deck is in your favour then push your chips in the middle to maximise the advantage.
Nothing wrong with that - and obviously its helped with leverage.
I spent years dripping funds into my 401k - funds that I had many internal debates about the use of. when I finally got control of part of my 401k I was able to invest in funds that I wouldn't have touched via a fund and my returns finally outstripped the market.
Its nothing spectacular - and nor do I have the backup that Eric mentioned - but I'm way ahead of the game compared to the average. If I can manage to keep up even half the gains that I have got in the last couple of years then I can finally do what I want for a living - reading up on markets and financials to my own investments - in my own time!!
nice work Eric!
Funnily enough my grandfather did something similar - except he was in the back end of a lancaster over europe....
I love the sucess stories - shows it can be done!
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I got involved with the msn board as I managed to free up some money in a 401k and wanted more information about how to invest it. The good news was that I was stubborn enough to not accept the advice I was given by ML. The bad news was that I didn't ignore all of it!!
I also wanted more information on Fairfax - even though I was working for one of the subsids at the time!! I needed the opinions of others who didn;t have the biased outlook that I did. I'd have been much better off if I'd followed my heart (and the opinions of those on the board) re Fairfax - instead I followed my head and cut my original amount I was to invest by 50%...
I guess it was good that I didn't follow my heart - but it was a financial mistake.
I'm now a year past working for Fairfax and I have to say that it was an incredible experience. I just wish the values that Prem imposes on Fairfax reached to all level of the organisation...
However so this board been an experience as well.. Certainly seems to confirm the phrase "birds of a feather flock together".
The last time ML called me to talk about advising me the guy at the other end talked to me as he was lookign up my investments " so mikenhe, you've been managing a lot of your own investment decisions and your performance in the last few years has been..... (tumbleweed) ... well quite impressive.. If theres anything we at ML can do please let us know"
This board gave me the confidence to invest in some areas that I wanted to - and avoid some others.
Thank you.
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Having met Mr Watsa several times I have to say that his relious leanings (or not) have no bearing on me whatsoever. Its him as a person and a leader that allows me to continue to carry on invest in FFH.
They may not get everything right, sometimes they may do things in a manner that costs them more money that if other people had done them but ultimatley he lays out the ground rules and actually does what he says.
my biggest concern is that as FFH get bigger will there be too much distance betweem Mr Watsa and the FFH standards and principals and those who are charged with implementing them.
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I'm all for him making restitution, accepting the blame and moving forward. I believe in second chances. But I'm not sure you get a second chance as a fiduciary or CEO of a public company...!
I think that if you have a second chance then you are able to do whatever you wish. Legally of course. Clean slate etc...
My concern here is not the second chance but the covering up of the past...
One thing I haven't been able to work out - whats his connection to SAC???
SAC? Where did you see that. Cheers!
I haven't - but if the caps fits......
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I'm all for him making restitution, accepting the blame and moving forward. I believe in second chances. But I'm not sure you get a second chance as a fiduciary or CEO of a public company...!
I think that if you have a second chance then you are able to do whatever you wish. Legally of course. Clean slate etc...
My concern here is not the second chance but the covering up of the past...
One thing I haven't been able to work out - whats his connection to SAC???
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Series: Dexter, Breaking bad (behind about 2 seasons in each), Downton Abbey and Graham Norton (both “watch with wife things!”)
Occasional programs on the food network and travel channel and sometimes sit with the kids and watch the Daily show and The Colbert Report
Other programs – Football (Liverpool FC) and the NFL.
I’ll watch the occasional movie on DVD.
So far the results are showing that the respondents watch far fewer hours and average (I think 40 hours is average per week with the TV being on 6 hours a day in the average house)
So a follow up question – who watches live tv and who watches adverts? Even the sports I watch I’ll often record them and watch them on dvr a little later so I can skip through the ads (take note nfl!!!).
If companies like apple and Google go the TV route then how will they turn it into cash flow – will people pay for the channels? If so will it be enough to make those ventures feasible?
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I'm interested in how much TV people watch.. please include TV shows watched on your computer!!!
I don't mean actually have it on in the background but the actual amount you actually sit down and watch.
I probably watch 3 or 4 shows that are on TV - all of which I record and watch at my convenience - and skip the ads.
However I am a sucker for Live sports so my hours get pushed up because of that..
I'm anticipating the answer to be far lower than the national average.
any commentary that enhances your answer would be welcome!!
Mike
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As for winning the champions league twice in 20 years, this is incredibly hard to do. The only managers who I can think of who have this are Fergie, Ancelotti, Sacchi, Hitzfeld, Llorente, Clough, Mourinho, heck even Cruyff only had 1 with Barcelona and that team of his with Laudrup, Bakero, Guardiola, Koeman, Txiki and Stoichkov was one of the best around. I think only Paisley managed to get 3 with his Liverpool team. And if we can't judge managers based on their long term records and strength of the league they are competing in, how are we to judge them?
Edit: And if you read any of my comments at no point do I saw he is the best manager ever, but I do say he is one of the greatest managers in the history of the sport and I don't think you will find many football enthusiasts who disagree with that.
I'd just like to point out that Paisley won 3 European cups in his time as manager - and the uefa cup in his first season as manager. No other manager has every achieved that.
in 9 seasons he also managed a mere 6 league titles (to add to the one he won as a player) 3 league cups and a few other baubles such as six manager of the year awards.
No-one else you mention comes close to winning that much (when considered in terms of trophies per year).
Ferguson had the young kids emerge at the same time that saved his bacon early on - after that, and with the money coming in from Europe (remember they started letting in runners up etc at that time...), the expansion of the stadium and a fanastic business plan and marketing enabled him to spend money on whatever he wanted in the way of players.. as with every other club there has been expensive flops as well as stars.
He's not a value investor - he's a ruthless manager in a ruthless club then can give him the money to go and buy players when he wants.
Value manager - probably Dario Gradi at Crewe over the years produced so many good players that kept Crewe going for so many years.
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I'm running about 22% for the last 4 years when I took control of my 401k - no leverage.
I took over because I was accepting advice that I didn;t agree with - and lost a chunk in Lehman Bros.
I have found that since then I'm capable of making my own investing mistakes instead of lettign other people screw up my retirement funds for me!
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+38%
would have been closer to 50 if I had held cash instead of a certain oil and gas stock.......
Its nto too shabby though.. I'd be happy with that return for the next few years....
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I suspect that whilst damage might be light there could be qute a few claims for business interuption - and the longer it take to restore power and do repairs then the higher it will go.
It could turn ugly very quickly.
as mentioned the good news is that there hasn;t been any other major weather losses in the USA in this storm period.
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nobody would enter the ME if it was about the odds of winning.. its not good value.. even with all the people in it just to say they have done it.
Its all about a deep run and exposure for your own purpose or your sponsor.. Theres noway someone like Harrington seriously thinks he can win - but his book gets free mention over and over again everyyear - you can't buy that coverage for 10K - at least not directly...
I'll play when I'm in Vegas - at limits and tourneys I like - and 10K is too rich for me - I'd rather play for a share of 5K in prize money and worse player in it.... plus if I don't win it doesn't ruin my day/week/life....
as for stakign poker players - no thanks. Theres a lot of degens playing above their level.. and there ones who play big and have money management skills are few and far between... and they don't need my stake..
The really good ones can sell 100% of themselves and just collect sponsorship on top - now thats the way to earn a living.... like a broker ;)
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wsop is a terrible series to play in.
to many good poker player - too many players in general attracted to the series.
Theres good maoney to be made in side games and earlier tourneys such as the Binions series - but the returns probably aren't worth investing in. Tournament play is very hard to profit in on a regular basis.
A few other things also need to be in place. The time to dedicate to getting up to speed, the time to play the tourneys, the discipline to focus on the task at hand and not be distracted by everythign else that goes on - especially in vegas.
I'm not sure I have the tools required - and thats before my poker skills come under scrutiny!!
I hit up vegas for a trip every march and play plenty of poker then – in the last years I think I’m about even on poker – and behind on everything else!! Except fun.
And telling my wife that I’m taking more time off from home and work to go play poker – for other people…. That’s not a value play!
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I want in on that!!!!
anyone want to stake me (I'll even look after their hours on the jet - albeit not the cost :D ) ;D
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I caught this on the way to work the other day - woth a quick listen but not very detailed.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/08/23/159806895/why-do-taxpayers-subsidize-farmers-insurance
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Atletico Madrid, how to run a football team into the ground ... and other Spanish football musings.
http://swissramble.blogspot.ch/2012/08/atletico-madrid-its-mad-world.html?m=1
good write up on the state of football. Especially scary is the amount of debt that the clubs carry - even the top two. Its not a level playing field.
I've always found it ironic that the best revenue sharing leagues are the ones in the USA. Effective socialism in the most capilalistic of countries.
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England (mostly around London) then on to New Hampshire.
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. Don't let Boston's soft exterior fool you. They are probably one of the dirtiest teams in the league.
Correct. Great reach and sees the game well, but as slow as he is strong.
I've seen the Providence Bruins play a few times... they all seem to be 6foot + and play a very physical game - seems to be the Bruins culture.. and dirty too. The nice exterior to the media doesn't fool me..
and for Chara - thanks for confirming that.. I get the feeling that they should stick to having him on the ice for Penalty situations only - for and against the Bruins.. normal play seems to slip by him..
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Enjoying this series.. I’m hoping that it’ll go 7 games though as on Wednesday I’ll be on my way to La Crosse Wisconsin as chaperone for 13 teens in an international Future problem solvers competition.. I’m guessing they won’t leave me any time to watch the game 5 either…
So please get this into next week…
Hockey isn’t my number one sport by any means and I came late to the game so I don’t have too much experience watching it so a couple of questions for the hockey nuts here..
1) Are Vancouver always that dirty/snide? Seems to be a lot going on – I know that Boston are a big team (and the farm team they have only seems to recruit big players) so is it a case of not being able to match Boston physically so play dirty to wind them up?
2) Chara – obviously highly rated but to me he’s not agile enough in tight turns and even a bit slow. Seems to always be around when the puck gets turned over and its normally because someone has out witted him on the ice.. Does his size outweigh the deficiencies in his game?
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I’m liking slide 12.
Reserve redundancies 2002-2009 nearly at 10% for the active companys.
I’ll take high reserves on the front end (which then looks bad in the combined ratio) in return for a few years of investment and then reserve redundancy later.
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I own because my wife wants the peace of mind of bringing up a family in a property that we know we can live in for as long as we like and can change it to suit our needs as required (within reason).
Can’t see any rate of return on any investment that can compare to my wife being happy.
Go Leafs Go!
in General Discussion
Posted
Let have a bruins win so that leaf fans can get back to a normal, playoff, empty, May schedule....
;)