muscleman

It is hard to say on volume alone. It could be that there are no sellers, so the smart players are not able to buy too many shares.

For anyone of you who remotely believe in some of what I am saying about focusing on technicals, check out the daily chart of FNMAS. The big move started on 3/26, one day before WH big announcement. Why? As I said before, there are players who are either smarter than us or have insider information or both, and these people are acting ahead of the news.

I don't use Japanese candle sticks. ;) I was expecting a bottom last Friday that should go low first and then close strong and I would buy then. I actually messaged one of our members here to look out for the bottom last Friday. But it closed super weak so I missed the buy this time. I am expecting certain things to happen before I act. I don't arbitrarily buy and sell. I am on the sidelines right now seeing you all making money. Congrats for those who held on. :) However, I don't feel jealous or feel the pressure to do something at this moment. After value investing for many years, I realized that my emotion can't handle big down times, and I can handle the fear of "missing a rally" far better than handling big down times. So I switched my styles. Note that no strategy can get the best of both worlds. I am now doing everything very calmly and no more heart attacks and adrenaline rushes. With that said, FNMA actually looks stronger than FNMAS. Hmm... Fundamentally it is too risky for me.

Let's list all the tax traps for US investors so we can all benefit. Let me start: 1. PFIC: Passive foreign investment companies. This is the trickiest of all. It has to be a foreign company, with more cash and cash equivalent assets than other assets, and investment income. Banks and insurance companies excluded. Note that a lot of small biotech companies easily fit this category. Also some ETFs? Foreign mutual funds? If you bought a PFIC and didn't sell by the end of the year, then good luck. Filing returns per PFIC takes a long long time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_foreign_investment_company Also, if you invest in a fund and the fund happens to own a PFIC, I wonder if that can cause big problems? 2. LP (limited partner): A lot of oil and gas companies are LP instead of corporations. They send you K1 that you have to fill out for tax filing, which is very annoying. Sometimes you could lose money trading LP shares, and at the same time, pay for the LP's share of income tax. 3. REITS? I don't have a good understanding of REIT. They seem like LPs, but will I get K1 forms? Or do I just treat it like a regular stock? They have to pay 90% of their income out, so dividend yield is usually high just like the LPs. Anything else?

Fellow traveller Mark M. Zandi is there to lecture congress. Is anyone from the pro-GSE side invited?

If the market goes up today, CNBC and WSJ will say, market goes up on Mueller report. If the market goes down today, they will say, markets down on global slowdown concerns. These articles are beyond junk quality that I don't even use as contrarian indicators. :)

The Russian investigation is wrapped up after two years finally, without this administration's intervention. Law and order. If that's the attitude toward the Russian investigations, doesn't this apply to GSE reforms even more? In that case, this administration may be waiting for Collins before they do any real administrative reform?

My view is that a legal surprise could totally throw TA out of whack, but if the thesis is built on administrative reforms, then TA is more helpful than FA. We know this administration has been talking to lots of people in the mortgage industry, so these mortgage people likely know something. If you want a recent example, Otting's leaked talk about the 2-4 week plan release is an example. He was not making a public statement. He was talking to an inner circle of people.

Based on my technical analysis, the market thinks it is certain that this 3/31 dividend will be paid. So we'll see. It has been flashing red lights to me since 2/25. Could we get some kind of surprise? We certainly could. But the market is usually right most of the time. What did your fortune cookie say though? Fortune cookie? Lol. That's a new interesting name for technical analysis. The most common one I heard of is "voodoo" :) As I said, this 3/31 dividend will be paid. And I sold most preferred on 2/25 and rest on 2/26 market open. Yesterday morning I was expecting a bottom, but at market close it looked more bearish, so a bottom may not be in for a couple of more weeks. muscleman, don't sweat the arrogant posts antagonizing you and TA. While this board is naturally a fundamentally-based value crowd, most serious investors agree that technical analysis can complement fundamental research if used in a structured manner. it also appears you approach your analysis with humility - something we could all use more of. good luck to you. Thank you! A few members here have been providing great contributions to the thread. I was mostly inactive before because I have nothing else to add. Then I realized that I could probably contribute as well by providing my technical analysis. So I became more active, and was taunted by a few members. But that's ok. I am sure there are a few members who benefit. My goal is to contribute back so we can all mutually benefit from each other on the GSE discussions.

Based on my technical analysis, the market thinks it is certain that this 3/31 dividend will be paid. So we'll see. It has been flashing red lights to me since 2/25. Could we get some kind of surprise? We certainly could. But the market is usually right most of the time. What did your fortune cookie say though? Fortune cookie? Lol. That's a new interesting name for technical analysis. The most common one I heard of is "voodoo" :) As I said, this 3/31 dividend will be paid. And I sold most preferred on 2/25 and rest on 2/26 market open. Yesterday morning I was expecting a bottom, but at market close it looked more bearish, so a bottom may not be in for a couple of more weeks.

Based on my technical analysis, the market thinks it is certain that this 3/31 dividend will be paid. So we'll see. It has been flashing red lights to me since 2/25. Could we get some kind of surprise? We certainly could. But the market is usually right most of the time.

Thank you Chris. Your legal perspective is always invaluable here! :)

Well, Bruce is facing severe liquidation pressure and had to sell of everything he has. When he sells suckers like SHLD, it makes sense to book profits on FNMAS to cancel out those losses so his mutual fund investors don't have to worry about taxes or tax loss carry forward. Didn't his GSE position in terms of % of total portfolio stay flat or even increased a bit?

mnuchin to date has been weak on housing finance. however, he's far smarter than me, so in order of likelihood imo: -- otting's comments and leaks were staged to spark congress to act. this may be working given the document released by crapo and 2 days of hearings upcoming. mnuchin might really want the paid-for explicit guarantee and perhaps is willing to accept the other stuff like multiple guarantors to try to get it through congress. the Democrats may just go along if the price is right on their programs. -- otting had his mnuchin nov-2016 moment and the leak blew everything up, back to the drawing board. -- after the collins arguments, mnuchin hit pause to hear the results because the lamberth and sweeney plaintiffs settlement ask requirements might be adjusted / finalized after this specific ruling is announced. -- or something else Good summary.

This is why I follow technicals. When I sold again on 2/25-2/26, I was quite puzzled because the fundamentals look so good that I felt like I may be making a mistake and miss a huge run up in just 1-2 weeks. Then day by day passed and there is no Otting plan yet.

Right. As Chris said, last in first out.

Oh, I see. No wonder there was a lot of expectation to get Calabria closure last Thursday. Does anyone know what the senate procedure is, to inject one FHFA director ahead of other judges waiting for closure? I am sure William Barr was injected into the head of that queue. After searching in Google, it seems like William Barr was nominated on December 7th, and got confirmed on Feb. 14th. Calabria was nominated on December 12th, so I'd think he would get confirmed by end of Feburary. Otting's original comment of 2-4 weeks may be because he expected Calabria to have been confirmed at that time. Why is Calabria confirmation taking so much longer than William Barr?

Thursday again. Are we getting Calabria confirmation today?

I really like the book "Trading in the Zone". There are lots of great quotes. These are not word by word from the book as I only remember the generation meaning, not the exact sentences. "Smart investors are flexible in their expectations of each outcome and rigid in their rules. In contrast, amateur investors are flexible in their rules and rigid in their expectations". "As a result, amateur investors never have a plan for cutting losses. They can't be wrong, so why have a plan for cutting losses?"

Isn't it amazing that every time there was an admin delay, we say "Now the thesis is back to courts", and every time there was a negative court ruling, we say "Courts don't matter. Now the thesis is back to admin reform"? ::) With that said, I do think Collins is promising. But we have been wrong all along the way. ::)

I think your subconscious is really making you feel miserable for having sold. But don't worry. Maybe enough of retail gets scared that you get your chance. That's absurd LOL. Why do I feel miserable for having sold? Because at these prices you aren't happy and would like to see a hard dive -which so far- has been elusive. At times, you seem to be timing the market by your own admission (charts), while simultaneously finding a reason that will justify the decision. What is absurd about unconsciousness or issues you aren't even aware of? I am sorry. With the wide bid and ask I can't see getting in and out of the preferreds as an intelligent action. Unless you play the most liquid ones. Which happen to be an overcrowded trade. No I am no longer a value investor since last year, and if you understand how momo investors think, they never want the price to take a hard nose dive. If that happens, they would go away and won't touch it for a long time. Yes I was trading FNMAS and FNMAT.

I think your subconscious is really making you feel miserable for having sold. But don't worry. Maybe enough of retail gets scared that you get your chance. That's absurd LOL. Why do I feel miserable for having sold?

Interesting to see this from our cheerleader: "Otting 2019 Glen ‏ @DoNotLose Following Following @DoNotLose More Well calabria has not been announced by McConnell yet. I think that makes it unlikely if not impossible that he gets in in time to make changes this month... But anything is possible if anyone cares" Coincidentally, last night I also had a dream that FNMAS was down 10.4%. I think this is just a general reflection of what people are feeling right now, cast into my own sub concious. I take this as a positive sign that it may build the bottom soon. :)

1. no 2. yes 3. no 4. of course, to no avail I agree with most of your points, except that #2 may not happen if Calabria is not confirmed by 3/31. Otting announcing anything drastic may impact Calabria confirmation voting, and cause additional delays. We only have two Thursdays before 3/31, so I expect the confirmation voting to happen soon.

That's true but I don't expect that to happen. Technical analysis shows me if we don't get a setup within the next two weeks, then there may not be a setup to buy anytime soon. Right now it looks to be getting ready. That's accidentally inline with the 3/31 deadline. I am flat since 2/26. We'll see what happens.