muscleman

Court doc attached... Thank you Luke. I was using my mobile phone when I pasted Glen's twit, and it was hard to attach the pdf from the phone. What's the timeline for this? I'd expect the en banc to come out way ahead of this trial right?

from Glen: Judge Lamberth entered an order today denying FHFA, Fannie and Freddie’s request that he reconsider his not decision that preserved shareholders’ contractual claims. Judge Lamberth declined FHFA and the GSEs’ invitation. Accordingly, shareholders’ implied covenant breach claims will not be dismissed and will proceed to trial. A copy of Judge Lamber’s decision is attached to this e-mail message.

Is Calabria supposed to talk today? Does anyone know any update?

isn’t it funny that value investors are disbelievers of efficient market hypothesis, while at the same time complain that the price is not trading at the correct value right away?

$.13 away from 5 year high on fnmas. (is that good or bad TA-wise?) The above statement alone is hard to say whether it is good or bad. We need more context. For example, if FNMAS makes a blow off move to a high of this level, I’d sell all of it. But for our current case, I am bullish because I just said I added more today. The most important thing to check is whether the smart guys are selling when the stock is at a new high. If they are not willing to sell, then it means this thing will soon go much higher. If they are selling, and likely bribing journalists to write bullish articles at the same time(example: March 2014) then it is a negative sign. Right now, I am not seeing a lot of bullish articles about it. I am seeing two clowns Carney and Gasparino bashing hard while the stock steadily moves up. That’s a bullish sign

Added more today. Don’t worry about the 9th circuit ruling on CFPB. Check the charts on FNMAS. It says that ruling is unrelated.

Chart shows a big move is coming soon, and most likely to the upside. Good luck to us! :) I see a lot of eager buyers but no sellers.

There sure is. There are many ways to make/lose money. The most important thing is to find a way that suits your personality and day to day life. I think it is off topic here so I created another thread. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/the-most-important-lessons-in-my-8-years-of-value-investing/

I put up my summaries here and hope it helps people on this board. I am no longer doing value investing but that's another topic. Please don't try to help and advise me to get back to value investing. I know what I am doing and like what I am doing. :) 1. I keep statistics how the number of hours I put into each stock, and the improvement of my batting average. I advise any value investor to do this to find the optimal number of hours to put into each name. You have to balance between improving your batting average vs missing the opportunity to look at other names. For me, this number is unfortunately low at 30 minutes. My batting average doesn't increase after I put in more than that amount of time. The optimal for others could be hundreds of hours for Buffet and he could make his batting average as high as only occasional losers, but that's fine. Each person has different personality and work habits. I have a full time job and a family to accompany. I also don't enjoy sitting tight reading all day long. But anyone should keep this kind of stats to see how he is doing to improve batting average instead of merely his confirmation bias. 2. If I lose 50% on a stock, I have to make 100% just to break even. If I lose 10%, I just need to make 11% to break even. This is just simple math. In general, wider stop losses requires less experience and skills, and the wider the stop loss, the more likely your portfolio becomes like an insurance company. (Consistent small profits. Occasional huge losers.) But I would never ever operate with no loss cutting plan. Even Buffet has loss cutting plans. He sold his department store in Baltimore break even as soon as he realizes that it was not gonna be a winner for him, though he blew up on his Dexter shoe position. (Occasional huge losers) 3. Avoid mental power black holes. If I have 10 positions, and 9 of them are doing fine, but there is one position that I kept worrying about, probably because it is not doing well, etc. tanking 50%, it sucks in all of my mental power and got me worry about it all day long. For the next few weeks, I'd have no mood researching new stocks, or keep track of my existing stocks, and my performance will plummet. You can figure out ways to solve this problem that fits your personality. For me, I have to sell it to avoid thinking about it anymore, so it is better to sell early than late before losing too much money. I am sure Bruce Berkowitz got his mental power sucked into the black hole named "SHLD", and he stopped generating good ideas ever since. So is Eddie Lambert. 4. How to eliminate conflicts in my mind. From time to time, I really like a stock, but then I was worried about some other things, and didn't end up buying. A few months later, it is 2x. And also from time to time, I wanted to sell but didn't sell because of some other reasons, and a few months later it is 50% down. I was in constant distress of "I should have done this, and could have done that". If any of you have similar problems, I recommend reading Mark Douglas's book "Trading in the Zone", which focuses on psychology. It is really important to keep asking myself to forget about the artificial excuses I put up. What's really the conflict in the mind, and actively resolve any mental conflicts. Only after that will I be able to buy and sell like breathing naturally.

My fear is that Calabria will do too much of what Watt did: make no move and wait for Congress. However, I have re-read the article after taking a break, and it isn't as bad as I thought. Calabria has talked about a sense of urgency, and he is committed to getting FnF out of conservatorship. I don't think the article is entirely positive, but I have backed away from the ledge! For the juniors, I agree. But a capital raise could dilute the commons badly, especially if it's large-scale and fast. There will be value added, but much of it could accrete to the new common shareholders. I ask myself everyday if I am being gullible in believing their words, while the real game is a waiting one. Government can wait forever. That's the problem of fundamental analysis. A lot of times this kind of uncertainty drives me nuts and then I sell, and then right after I sell, the stock goes 3x. :( I don't have this problem any more after I give up on FA. The chart continues to look incredible. It is one of the best looking chart in all of my holdings right now. I see lots of buying and no sellers on the market. What's really funny is that on Tuesday, the collaborated bashes by John Carney and Gasparino happens to be the lowest volume day of this week for FMCKJ. That tells us that the last group of weak holders (Chris call them LIFO guys) are out. So now we have no sellers and eager buyers, so guess what's gonna happen next. :) In a strange kind of way, LocusofTexas got it right. This, whether we like or not, is a gamble of the rankest kind. What makes this a sordid speculation is government's involvement. Not the kind of involvement known through 10k's, that is, Congress providing GSE's charters and public mission or government entanglement as a "sponsor", but the type of pervasive involvement that is so vast and widespread that involves both houses of Congress and all branches of government in an insidious type of way: politics. I imagine that the day Warren Buffett reached a similar realization, way before any hint of any nws, he promptly concluded fundamentals really did not count or, if they did, they would take a back seat to anything even remotely connected to a politico farting, deciding -was it a large position in Freddie Mac?- it was time to pack and leave with a boatload of profits. Not to risk such fart would end up smelling worse than a rotten egg. Judging this bet on a fundamental basis or a technical basis is an exercise in futility. Charts also looked GREAT on the day this article was published making it the first public acknowledgement of hedge funds' involvement on the Jrs. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-03-10/westhus-reaping-fannie-windfall-to-rival-big-short-mortgages That day, my friend, was the historical peak (or the day before if you want more precision). A day later, the sell-off began. And within 2 days Crapo announced a plan to eliminate and replace Fannie and Freddie: https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2014/03/12/fannie-and-freddie-preferred-shares-fall/#567834e9423e Then, a few months later, Lamberth hand-grenade blew us up into pieces. Fundamentals? Technicals? Coincidence? Inside trading? The only right way to handle a bet on these shares -and I only focus on the Jrs.- is by trying to assess in the best possible manner cumulative information from many different sources interpreting this data in many different ways with a great deal of latitude and an enormous amount of humility that allows for admitting errors. Sometimes major ones. And this assessing, in general, is more like reading tea leaves in its simplest form. Today, I like to think Mnuchin is not yapping. He told us last year, to our great disappointment, that the GSEs were a 2019 story. We got crashed. But we now know he was honest. Why would he publicly say such thing last year and why continue to say it today, in an open forum, that not only this is a 2019 story but one that will unfold within the next 6 months? Why not continue to delay the story to 2020 and beyond? Given he was honest last year, I'd like to think it is true we may see things accelerating in the next few months. Thank you for your kindness to help. But trust me, I am not the thrilled 18 year old high school kid who just discovered the "magic of fast moving average crossing the slow moving average." or something as naive as that. :D When I was 18 years old, I first started with technical analysis, and blew my whole account in one year. (Tiny account though). I stopped for a few years, and after graduation, I encountered value investing, learned really hard for 8 years, but eventually give up. I am back to technical analysis because I knew what this is all about and why I blew up in the first place 16 years ago. I am not a pure TA though. I look at both TA and FA. You mentioned 2014 events. I started tracking GSEs since 2009. I have studies those tops and the Perry ruling top. I've done intensive studies since last May on TA and went over thousands of charts per week.

My fear is that Calabria will do too much of what Watt did: make no move and wait for Congress. However, I have re-read the article after taking a break, and it isn't as bad as I thought. Calabria has talked about a sense of urgency, and he is committed to getting FnF out of conservatorship. I don't think the article is entirely positive, but I have backed away from the ledge! For the juniors, I agree. But a capital raise could dilute the commons badly, especially if it's large-scale and fast. There will be value added, but much of it could accrete to the new common shareholders. I ask myself everyday if I am being gullible in believing their words, while the real game is a waiting one. Government can wait forever. That's the problem of fundamental analysis. A lot of times this kind of uncertainty drives me nuts and then I sell, and then right after I sell, the stock goes 3x. :( I don't have this problem any more after I give up on FA. The chart continues to look incredible. It is one of the best looking chart in all of my holdings right now. I see lots of buying and no sellers on the market. What's really funny is that on Tuesday, the collaborated bashes by John Carney and Gasparino happens to be the lowest volume day of this week for FMCKJ. That tells us that the last group of weak holders (Chris call them LIFO guys) are out. So now we have no sellers and eager buyers, so guess what's gonna happen next. :)

How much did you put into the stock market each year? You probably have both great returns and a lot of money saved each year to put into the market to get to 1M now. Mind sharing?

while I dont read gaspo and carney, I can see how the LIFO guys do, and so this can only mean volatility until a plan is released...and likely a new round of volatility once the plan is sought to be executed. the POTUS memo was a sea change (the B guy thinks a recap is now a foregone conclusion), and a favorable collins en banc decision is another sea change opportunity. but this is going to be a slow moving process with a lot of chirping by the gaspo/carney/tbtf types The positive sign to me is that the number of LIFO guys have greatly diminished. With Gasparino and John Carney bashing hard on Tuesday, we have seen very little volume, and stock closed higher than the open after an initial dip of 3.5%. All stocks tend to make a move to where the least number of people make money. It is never so easy that everyone is making money on the trade. Only those who are strong and smart are the ones making money in the end. As Livermore put it, "it wasn't my thinking that made me money. It was my sitting on my hands". Exactly! I think Munger also said something like this.

while I dont read gaspo and carney, I can see how the LIFO guys do, and so this can only mean volatility until a plan is released...and likely a new round of volatility once the plan is sought to be executed. the POTUS memo was a sea change (the B guy thinks a recap is now a foregone conclusion), and a favorable collins en banc decision is another sea change opportunity. but this is going to be a slow moving process with a lot of chirping by the gaspo/carney/tbtf types The positive sign to me is that the number of LIFO guys have greatly diminished. With Gasparino and John Carney bashing hard on Tuesday, we have seen very little volume, and stock closed higher than the open after an initial dip of 3.5%. All stocks tend to make a move to where the least number of people make money. It is never so easy that everyone is making money on the trade. Only those who are strong and smart are the ones making money in the end.

For those who cares about TA, today's price action is very positive. While John Carney and Gasparino are powerful market movers, their negative articles only caused a 3% decline for less than a few hours, and then price fully recovered, with more weak holders shaken out.

Which broker is sucking your blood? I started realizing this problem since last October. TD AM just won't give me anything reasonable. But I called Fidelity and they put my cash into a sweep vehicle called government obligations that yields 1.9%. Interactive Brokers pays 1.9% interest on cash if your cash balance is above like 100k? Schwab also offers something like Fido's cash sweep vehicle. Don't listen to the other guy that suggest you put cash into vanguard. You have to manually make that trade, and pay a $30+ commission, and if you withdraw within 90 days, there is extra penalty. What you needed is a cash sweep vehicle that doesn't need any of your actions so you can focus on important tasks like buying stocks.

The analyst is my buddy's MBA classmate. Lu Li moved to Seattle last summer. I work in a company that rented a few floors in a big building that a few other companies share with. Lu Li rented one floor as well. I have even met him and his two daughters once in the elevator and shake hands with him. :)

MM, re-read what you said in this paragraph. I think you DO have the makings of a successful value investor if you are able to overcome the emotional struggle of not catching the bottom. Look, I've been there. It stinks paying more today for something I could have had cheaper yesterday, but it is what it is. Why not pay 10% or 20% more over and above the bottom price when the stock, as you've experienced a lot of times, would double from the low? Is that additional 80%+ not worth trying to work on the emotional discipline of getting over the disappointment of not catching the bottom? I would think you'd agree that it is a worthwhile discipline to try to get a handle on given you were in the right place at the right time a lot of times... but missed it because of something that you can work on with some effort. Thank you for your kind words. I have tried this for 8 years and in the end, realized that I am not suitable for it. I've known lots of kind people who were willing to help, including an analyst from Lu Li's fund, but that's ok. I really like what I am currently doing with technical analysis and trading, and happy with it.

That's a strong sell signal. Sell all your positions to me. ;) Just kidding.... Nowadays more and more trades happened in the dark pool, and the volume is not reported in real time. However, due to regulations, they have to be reported some time after market close, so that's why on 1 minute chart, you'll see a sudden huge volume spike after market close, at a price that may not be meaningful. This is when the dark pool reports are aggregated. This is why daily chart is the minimum time frame I look at.

Strong sell! Sell all your positions to me! ;) Based on the price actions, I think we would expect preferred on par or close to par and a lot of dilution for the common. Don't under estimate the power of efficient market hypothesis. I don't agree with it, but I do think it has a lot of merits. right, I think market sees juniors diluting common, then govt warrants diluting everyone. it may be so but that sets up for a possible surprise when some kind of plan comes out. I think if you want to trade around a mostly junior position it makes sense at these levels to have some exposure to common Well, I am a momo "investor" now, so I wouldn't touch anything that goes down. Value investing is doing the opposite, so that's why you may be excited about buying a falling common, but I would not do that. I have my strict entry rules. So strict that sometimes I had to pass on good opportunities. On March 22nd 2019 for example, I messaged another member about the bottom likely in, but I didn't buy there because it hasn't fit all of my rules for an entry point. Later it did turn out to be the bottom but that's ok. In the past when I was a value investor, I'd be upset and swearing why the hell I miss the bottom, and since it is up so much from the bottom, I would not touch it now unless it goes back down there. A lot of times it just never comes back down, and I would see the stock going up 100% without me. Eventually I decided to give up value investing because it is so out of sync with my genetics.

Strong sell! Sell all your positions to me! ;) Based on the price actions, I think we would expect preferred on par or close to par and a lot of dilution for the common. Don't under estimate the power of efficient market hypothesis. I don't agree with it, but I do think it has a lot of merits.

Nice! Now finally all the right people are in charge.

Hmm... Why is Calabria not included? The twit above shows Mitch filing closure for Calabria. Is the senate doing only one vote per week? That's gonna be really slow to get all vacancies filled.

Nice!

This is all Monday morning quarterback. Had he over-weighted growth stocks and lost money there, and made money in SHLD, he would have said it the other way. "The growth names were worth 60 cents when we thought they were worth 100 cents. The troubled companies were worth 150 cents when we thought they were worth 100 cents. " I could totally see some fund manager saying this after the 2000 dot com crash. :)