giofranchi

Maybe, I just like history too much… And surely I don’t want to sound too cerebral and too much of a senseless scholar here… I am not, and what I do in life is running businesses. Yet, before talking about history, its usefulness, or lack of a real purpose, I strongly advice to read: [amazonsearch]The Historian's Craft: Reflections on the Nature and Uses of History and the Techniques and Methods of Those Who Write It.[/amazonsearch] By March Bloch It is a wonderful essay about history and about those who write it. And of course one of the best tool I know of to answer the following question: what’s the true role of history in our life? Highly recommended! giofranchi

I understand and agree with all that has been said in this thread! Yet, as always, I like to bring in the perspective of a businessman… As a business owner I know two things: 1) I wouldn’t start one if too unpredictable, 2) (and most important in my view) I wouldn’t start one without a partner who allocates capital reliably or, even better, shrewdly. I don’t know if 1) + 2) = “high quality”… and I don’t care much about the answer either. The fact is simply I demand: predictability + good capital allocation. I don’t shift capital into any venture, if I don’t see those two prerequisites. Instead, if I see both, then I look and wait for an entry price which would allow me to compound capital at 15% yearly for many years into the future. giofranchi

Half way through the paper. Excellent paper! Thank you for posting! My pleasure! :) Cheers, giofranchi

Shiller, Fama, Hansen win Nobel Prize in economics http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shiller-fama-hansen-win-nobel-prize-in-economics-2013-10-14?link=MW_home_latest_news giofranchi

Very good paper by Prof. Sanjay Bakshi on Indian Family-Owned Business: A Framework for Classifying Types of Owner-Operated Businesses. giofranchi Corporate_Governance_in_Indian_Family-Owned_Businesses.pdf

Very interesting essay by Mr. George Gilder! giofranchi EVA+10.11.2013+NA.pdf

Just great! Far from disparaging your cautious stance! Instead, many thanks for “opening the oven door” and let us also “peer at what is inside” for a while, Mr. Grant! giofranchi

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook - Third Quarter 2013 giofranchi HIM2013Q3NP.pdf

Sad piece of news... :( I have long considered an investment in both Pargesa and Power Group, without ever pulling the trigger... now it might be too late... giofranchi cp1013.pdf

[amazonsearch]Titan: The Life of John Rockefeller, Sr.[/amazonsearch] Finally, it is out on audiobook (unabridged) at audible.com. Not to be missed! :) Cheers, giofranchi

--Russell Sage: The Money King giofranchi

--Russell Sage: The Money King giofranchi

--Russell Sage giofranchi

About the Panic of 1857: --Russell Sage: The Money King giofranchi

--Russell Sage giofranchi

+1 giofranchi

"Nightmare on Wall Street: This Secular Bear Has Only Just Begun" by Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research giofranchi Easterling-131004.pdf

Good weekly commentary by Mr. David Hay. giofranchi EVA+10.4.2013+NA.pdf

--Benjamin Franklin Great piece by Charles Gave! :) giofranchi Daily+10.01.13.pdf

Kumar, I am no politician at all… believe me! And I’d much prefer to be called a “value investor” rather than a “politician”… The truth, though, is I don’t like “labels”… If you want to put a label on me, try this one: “a person who will constantly endeavor to grow the equity of his company 15% annual for the next 45 years”. And I will gladly learn anything that could help me achieve that goal! Therefore, I try to avoid prejudices like the plague. For instance, are there useful skills a value investor might learn from a politician? Of course there are! I wish I had the PR skills of a politician! They would serve me extremely well in my business. :) giofranchi

Yesterday I finished reading “High Financier: The Lives and Time of Siegmund Warburg” by Niall Ferguson. Highly recommended! giofranchi

Liberty, nothing in particular… it is just the general tone of the article… something like: “it might be true: markets are overvalued, and are at risk of coming down abruptly… anyway, disregard this piece of information, because it is not actionable.” Just give me the information, and let me be the one to decide what to do with it! The relevance of the same piece of information might be very different for me than for you. Simply because my situation is different from yours. That’s my point! But, of course, I might have misunderstood the general tone of the article. :) giofranchi

--Warren Buffett You quote WB, I quote WB. :) If you decide not to plan, in order to have cash, when all others suffer from a lack of liquidity, you not only choose to disregard WB’s advice, but also the examples of all the great and very successful financial minds that came before him. This being said, I have an extreme aversion to “rules”… because they tend to work, until they don’t… Instead, I want to stay flexible, to adapt, and to go wherever I see value. If you study Warren Buffett long enough, I think anyone would agree that he has always shown great flexibility and adaptability during his whole, very long career, searching for value. Imo, that’s also what the so-called (hey! I really don’t like it!) “Warren Buffett of Canada” is doing. --The Plateau Effect – Getting from Stuck to Success giofranchi

I usually like to read what the Brooklyn Investor has to say, and very often I agree with his point of view. Unfortunately, I think that “macro” is misunderstood by the great majority of so-called “value investors”. Let me explain: If you study the Vanderbilts, the Sages, the Mellons, and the Baruchs of the past, I think you will get more and more convinced about basically one truth: they grew steadily and moderately in times of prosperity and optimism, and they grew by leaps and bounds in times of adversity and pessimism. So, if the greatest financial minds of the past were flexible enough to adapt their strategies to the times, why instead should we invest as if the world were always the same?! The answer, as far as I am concerned, is: there is no reason. This has nothing to do with “macro bets” or “being in and out of the market”. Macro should be something purely “qualitative”, that gives you an idea of how other investors are behaving. That idea is just one of the many things anyone should take into consideration, while devising his/her strategy. A strategy that will be sometimes more aggressive, sometimes more conservative, depending on the circumstances. According to the GMO 7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts, US Small Caps are to return –3.1% annual, while US Large Caps are to return –1.6% annual. Why on earth would you ignore such forecasts? Because you have found a company selling below BV? That would be like saying: I might have two pieces of information, but the first one is good enough, therefore I won’t even consider the second… Crazy, no?! I want both pieces of information, sure that my whole strategy will be stronger for that! Even Mr. Buffett has always managed to have ready cash at hand, when others instead were in trouble. Given his very long career, which do you think is more plausible? a) he devised a carefully conceived strategy to achieve such a favorable outcome, b) he is the luckiest guy on earth! I repeat: “macro” is only one of the many things that could help shaping an effective strategy. And it must be put in context with all the others. For instance, Mr. Buffett controls many recession resistant businesses, that will keep handing him tons of cash, even during difficult times, and yet holds more than $40 billion in cash & equivalents. He clearly has a strategy and, given how much resilient that strategy is, “macro” might play a very small role, almost no role at all. The question is: which is YOUR strategy? And which role “macro” plays in it? None? Well then, you better be sure your strategy is as resilient as Mr. Buffett’s… Otherwise, chances are you won’t be the one holding the coveted cash, when troubles finally arrive, as they always do. giofranchi

In my opinion your whole answer just proves how difficult it is to invest in technology and, I would add, in fashion too. You write: Sure! But the problem remains the same, if even the CEO or the board cannot predict the outcome accurately enough! And that is just the nature of the beast with technology and fashion. You also write: Those are good questions… in hindsight! What was BBRY to do instead? The only thing I can think of is to become a BRK: to buy new and completely different businesses, using the cash generated by operations that were going to die… Come on! Let’s face it: BBRY is (or was…) in the business of selling mobile phones, either you succeed or you don’t. If you want to run the risk, you do whatever it takes to come up with the best product you can. Vice versa, if you don’t want to run the risk, you use all the cash you generate, until you can generate some, to change business. Could have Mr. Watsa taken the decisions required to follow the second course? I don’t think so. And despite the existence of a wonderful device like the i-phone, it seems that Samsung is doing pretty well, isn’t it? Therefore, to compete with Apple might not be easy, but neither it is utterly impossible. Or so it seems. giofranchi