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giofranchi

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Everything posted by giofranchi

  1. Gary, with this I undoubtedly agree! Unfortunately, I cannot help you… That’s just the way they do business… If you don’t like what you see, then you should stay away! But this has nothing to do with price… ;) Gio
  2. Tom, I focus more on ownership + management, than on management alone. I do so because I experience in everyday business life the difference it truly makes. And, as I go on studying the methods of great entrepreneurs of the past, I find they had very similar experiences about the importance of partnering with great people. Have you read my last quote on the thread about George F. Baker? ;) Be sure that also Mr. Buffett agrees! 3 out of 8 great entrepreneurs profiled in “Outsiders” he invested with, a fourth was he himself, a fifth, Mr. Singleton, came just a little bit too early! ;) This doesn’t mean you will do awesomely all the times… No one knows the future, right? But if the people we partner with truly deliver what they promise 5 or 6 times out of 10, we might get very rich indeed! ;) Cheers, Gio
  3. Gary, You simply cannot point at the fact in 1998 FFH got wildly overvalued - BV was little above $100, while price reached above $525 (see the chart attached) - and say who bought at that precise time only collected the dividends… What does that observation have in common with today’s reality?? Imo NOTHING! Today we are trading at 1.247 x BV, after 3 years BV has gone nowhere, even if IV imo has gone up a lot! Like I have very often repeated, you must know what you own… Otherwise, selling is the right choice… but not because of the price! ;) Gio fairfaxchart.pdf
  4. Well, I look for great people (at the helm of a predictable business), and then I stay with them. I act only when the price is VERY low (averaging down), or when the price is VERY high (selling some, most often not my entire position!). This way I reduce the number of choices I have to make as much as possible! ;) Gio PS I am sure I know that one… Just cannot remember it right now… ::)
  5. Tom, I agree. Unfortunately, this is only theory. For instance, I think FFH is worth much more than 1.3 x BV, I don’t even think its BV makes any sense today… You, on the other hand might think about FFH differently… You see? I think FFH is trading well below IV, you might think it is trading above IV! Practice is much more complicated! ;) What I think we might agree on follows: holding or buying FFH today, you partner with a great entrepreneur and his wonderful team of people, and you pay a fair price to do that. This simple recipe in the long run tends to yield very satisfactory results. Unless, of course, you want to jump in and out… then, good luck to you! ;D ;D ;D Gio
  6. They (the shareholders you are asking) like the price if they choose to hold (unless they do so only for tax savings). Otherwise, it's all too easy to sell and go to cash. Just as easy in fact as having cash and buying the shares at the same price. So how is that any differnt? Buying vs holding? Other than taxes and psychology, they are the same bullish sentiment. Having cash and buying is basically the same vote of confidence as holding and not selling to raise cash (other than taxes and psychology). This imo makes no sense at all… there are a lot of reasons why someone might just hold a business. In fact the great majority of business owners just hold their businesses. But you are traders… Ok! Yet, I still believe the more you trade the more mistakes you will make in the end. So, please go on: jump in and out of FFH! Good luck to you! :) Please, consider this: if the markets are in for a correction, FFH BV will explode (today’s BV multiple basically won’t matter!); if the markets keep getting more and more expensive, FFH will be a mediocre investment. Therefore, why won’t you keep some funds invested in FFH and some other funds invested elsewhere much more correlated with the stock market? Are you so sure about what the market is going to do next?! ;) Gio
  7. Q1 2014 Conference Call Transcript Gio fairfax-financial-holdings-Q1-2014-conference-call-transcript.pdf
  8. Obama And US Growth by Mr. Charles Gave Gio Daily+5.2.14.pdf
  9. Great piece by Mr. David Hay. I couldn’t agree more! ;) Gio EVA+5.2.2014_NA.pdf
  10. Pete, you know I couldn't agree more. ;) Gio
  11. I agree this might not move the needle much… Anyhow, it is the strategy and the process that I like! :) Gio
  12. I have just bought it! Thank you! ;) Gio
  13. The process of acquiring insurance platforms opportunistically goes on. :) Cheers, Gio PRFFH_April_24_2014_Fairfax_to_Acquire_Indonesian_Insurer.pdf
  14. It is pleasantly surprising to realize how much flirtatious Mr. Ben Franklin was with women! Always, of course, in a very gentlemanly manner! He simply enjoyed to talk to and to spend his time among women. One more trait I gladly share with this man born 270 years before I came into this world! ;D ;D ;D Gio
  15. Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook First Quarter 2014 Gio HIM2014Q1NP.pdf
  16. I think once again Mr. Einhorn put it best citing Gertrude Stein at the end of Greenlight Capital Q1 2014 letter: ;) Gio
  17. I read one step each morning... over and over again. ;) Gio
  18. Easy Eurozone Trades Are Running Out Of Road by Mr. Charles Gave Gio Daily+4.22.14.pdf
  19. One regret I have is I was not able to meet with Kraven … Hey, my friend, where were you? Cheers, Gio
  20. No!!!! Please … I know you are joking, but I am a bit touchy about such a thing right now … After Mr. Brindle’s departure from LRE, if Mr. Watsa were to leave FFH too … I guess I would start playing golf and devoting the rest of my life to that wonderful sport!! ;D ;D Gio
  21. ;D ;D ;D Sanjeev, You know those gorgeous models hired by The Keg? When one of them handed me the gift card with $25 bucks for free, I didn’t have the readiness to address her this way: “Wow! Now that I have $25 bucks for free, I must surely offer you a dinner!!” … I would have made Kraven proud of me, but I miserably failed the test … I tortured myself for days after the meeting! ::) Cheers, Gio PS Truth be told, I am dating Ginevra right now, and she is gorgeous too! ;)
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