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ALiveH

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  1. Go back and re-read my post. I know the yield isn't staying constant, in fact I expect a year from now it will trade at a lower yield (higher price) & that the quarterly distribution is going to go up 2c / quarter for at least the next 1.5 years without having to do any new transactions & I explained why. And if the cost of capital gets too high, the ETE put is there (which was the exact rationale for the KMR/KMI/KMP take-out and the attempted WMB/WPZ take-out). Where else in this market can you buy a utility / consumer staple type business model with 100% tax-advantaged payout ratio that grows at HSD trading at 11.5x? Also, I explained why they don't need to do much/any ATM this quarter. They don't need to. They just received $1 Bn cash in the latest transaction. http://ir.energytransfer.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=106094&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2067885 http://ir.energytransfer.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=106094&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2067884
  2. Almost 9% current yield with 7-8% growth is a pretty attractive high teens total return assuming the yield stays constant. I believe it should trade closer to a 6% current yield given its safety, the ETE put, organic & inorganic growth levers. Last week's transaction was instantly 30c accretive according to mgmt which locks in 4 more quarters of HSD distribution growth. And the RGP transaction neutral this year, should start being accretive in 2016. Beyond 2016, there's the $11 Bn project backlog. And, there are other accretive financial engineering transactions they can do between energy transfer family members to clean up the structure ETP mostly addressed the equity issuance question in the near-term (see the conference call) by being a bit more aggressive than usual in Q2 with ATM issuance and also the transaction announced last week retired 20M ETP shares and paid ETP $1 Bn cash. ETE is holding up really well relative to ETP (~500 bps spread on current yield). the spread when KMI rolled up KMR & KMP and when WMB attempted to acquire WPZ (all at ~25% premiums) were only 300-350 bps. A couple weeks ago ETE CFO Jamie Welsh was asked directly on CNBC whether ETE would acquire ETP. He said too much on the plate for energy transfer family this year but next year he might have a different answer. ETP seems like a no-brainer at these levels to me.
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