Sunrider

Liberty - I know that you're invested in this, and it's great to see someone trying to get to Bloomberg level functionality and quality in a way which is affordable for small-time investors .... but for god's sake, can you just tell the man that he's not living up to his own standards? Somewhere on his site he says that Bloomberg is horribly complicated and thus difficult. At least it has a search function. I just want to see Chtr's LTM EBITDA/EV alongside that of its closest competitors ... takes two clicks on TIKR.com but I've yet to figure out how to do it on Koyfin ... and there's no bloody help function. BB may be over the top, but at least there's help! For shits and giggles, try to google stuff like 'Koyfin how to get comparables' or 'Koyfin how to get company competitor estimates' ... impenetrable!

Of course looking at the glass somewhat full, one could also argue that the FHFA announcing that it will conserve, stabilise and operate only until that's done, one might not reasonably expect to be expropriated... but given court's views on this so far, I'm afraid that this is just wishful thinking ...

Yes, that's what the bottom of page 17 says ' rights to dividends and liquidation inhere in the security ' Page 19, second para from bottom 'For an investor contract the time of contracting for the purpose of the implied covenant inquiry must be the time of the most recent change in contract ...' also read the rest of that page and start of the following page, which basically say that the court will look to Hera to determine what investors' reasonable expectations should have been. This may set up a split between those shareholders who bought pre and post, if the conclusion is that investors should've expected on the basis of HERA that the government will take actions which lead to their liquidation preference to be worth very little. (for clarity: That might then mean that whilst as a post shareholder you have the liquidation preference as it travelled with the security, you should've expected for it to be worth very little ... ) What am I missing? By the way, is cherzeca still active here? Thanks!

The way I read it is that the rights travel with the securities, but not necessarily what should be deemed 'fair' and 'reasonable expectations' ... i.e. those might be different for those who bought prior to NWS and those who bought after ... in other words, no question that prefs have liquidation preference, etc., but whether a shareholder who bought post NWS could've reasonably expected that the liquidation preference is worth >0 is a question he left open. if you read that differently, could you please point to where Lambeth addresses the point in the way you interpret it? Thank you. Christian

Well, sadly, 10 years later, we now should update the title of this thread to '15 or 16 baggers', which is what some of the prefs now trade at. This one hurt. I've re-read the delawarebay paper, and the Lamberth opinion ... main worry is (a) question about whether not only the rights to liquidation preference and dividends travel with the shares but also the expectation of fair dealing (as plaintiffs will be able to show that GSEs were about to be profitable and as a matter of record did not receive anything new in return for the NSW). -> My brain has trouble thinking of how this might practically work if they were divorced, but then again it seems that judges have now split hairs so fine they could circumcise a mosquito. (b) Sweeney seemed to be balanced and didn't take too much of the government's BS ... not clear what to make of the new judge ... and there seems to be a leaning towards the government once these guys are in the seat, irrespective of what their views were previously. (c) whether this admin is genuinely interested in getting the GSEs off the government's books (so to speak). If so, then they will work towards recap. If not, they may simply want to speculate that the next crisis requiring a bailout may be a problem for the next guy/girl in the role. I am tempted to average down, but I am aware that I may just be blinded by commitment bias and the (so far) stupid belief that the land of liberty will eventually conclude that if this all stands, property rights don't matter, and will therefore correct this. Perhaps that is pure naiveté. On the other hand, one should evaluate investments based on what they offer today. FNMAH at 1.68 is about 1:15. The fact that the total investment IRR after such a long time would be pedestrian doesn't matter, it's a sunk cost. Giving it 3 more years and making 15x does look attractive compared to everything else, but I am genuinely wondering whether this is the right mental model for such a binary situation. Input welcome.

Seems like it - only one opinion published. @cherzeca - has it happened before that opinion only arrives in next term?

Too much whitespace ads too large requiring even more scrolling (and in middle of Text) doesn’t jump down to last read which in combinations with the prior points makes things aggravating as hard to see in topic what already read

I would suggest you try and open the site on an iPad hold it horizontal and measure how efficient you can scan topics and read them. On my 12 inch it’s basically all irrelevant stuff and a huge add taking ca 25% of space before I even see a single topic. my efficiency in perusing these boards has dropped significantly and I actually find myself browsing here less thanks Edit screenshots attached first two full screens. I understand having a server costs money but do the adds need to take 25 - 30 pct of the real estate? Looks more like one of these clickbait sites these days

Indeed, this last post takes up a whole horizontal iPad page thanks to the white space in the post and the inexplicable white space underneath it. Also, why are the adds so much taller now. At the top I have to scroll past the first one, then there’s the first post in the forum, then straight after there’s another one, also tall. No longer efficient to browse here.

The problem isn't the ads - they were fine on the previous layout. It's where they are, how big they are, and how many there are. Now when I get to a page, the top 25 or 30 percent is irrelevant stuff, sometimes I think it's two huge ads! Then when you scroll through you lose space for one or two posts where there is ads interjected. When you go back to a prior page it no longer pops you to were you were on that page but puts you back to the top, where once again you have to scroll past all this wasted space.

Spot on. +1 Prior site looked old and boring but was much quicker to scroll and read. Take out the unnecessary white space and shrink the ads (not just on mobile)

Those work too. I have all my FnF shares at IB now. I am able to trade every series I keep track of, which is 34 of them, including the variable-rates. I haven't tried to trade FNMFO or the privately-placed Freddie juniors (FREJO, FREJP, maybe there's one or two more?) though.

Well, it seems that you are able to cause the market to revalue those by 7% .... so only a few more posts to go until we hit par :) On a serious note - anyone see anything else which might explain today's pop?

Slightly higher ration FNMAT, if memory serves, 8.25? vs. 7.5?

- Government amended a perfectly normal agreement that bailed out the GSEs during the GFC to sweep all profits the companies are making and part of their net worth to the Treasury. - It did this knowing (as court evidence shows) that the companies were about to be very profitable again. - In doing so, it did not pay anything to shareholders (whether common or preferred), thus it effectively expropriated without compensation. - The court cases take various angles to fight this expropriation, and aim to reverse that bailout amendment (the net worth sweep). - Steve Mnuchin, shortly after being appointed, went on tv and said that the GSE should not be government owned, need to have private capital in them, etc. So the second angle is that he will do the right things before the new team comes in to get that on the road - what 'the right things' is, is open to debate on these boards. - Most people here are invested in the pref shares, which offer somewhere around 3 - 4x upside to par if the above works out as people (me included) hope.

I'd add that rather than fearing Mnuchin resigning, we should worry that the orange-faced nutcase hears that some members of his cabinet are discussing invoking the 25th, and he fires them all out of fear/panic/spite/vengeance/... Sadly, given everything that's come from that man over the last four years, writing this is not even shocking or feels outlandish any more (and I'm on that side of the political spectrum).

Think of it like this You magically get the Fed’s money printing press (well computer these days) and print yourself 10tn real dollars, i.e. there is no dispute that they are real valid can be spent etc. Does that cause inflation? No, not as usually defined. It will only drive up the price level if A - you start spending them on stuff (and ideally faster than stuff can be supplied) or B - People think you are going to spend them and start raising / paying higher prices in anticipation. Same thing here, just putting newly created money into fed reserves for the banks doesn’t create inflation as long as people don’t adjust their expectations or the money actually does go start cycling in the economy. What does that mean? The banks would have to convert those reserves into loans to customers, who then spend the money. So far it seems they only have loaned to financial investors and thus financial assets have inflated... and the public has not (yet?) begun to believe that prices might rise. (There’s a technical point in the above in that you can argue that the creation of these new dollars alone makes all existing dollars worth less in terms of real goods ... a bit like it used to be when the dollar was pegged to gold - then it was more obvious as the quantity of money was (nearly) fixed. ... it just seems that people generally don’t think about it as an exchange of two things anymore and so have not adjusted their price expectations). What Wabuffo and Hunt are also saying, I think, is that if the fed liabilities become legal tender, the. All bets are off, because at the moment the money being printed basically just turns extant debt from one form (government treasuries) into another (fed deposits). That shortens the maturity and should push banks to seek higher yields on these assets.

my argument is my opinion but it's not just that.. it's an argument made by David Thompson in a previous oral argument, I think in the original DC circuit case. This argument has been made probably since then. If you're referencing something specific in the current brief, amicus (which one), or replies, etc, then why not reference it directly rather than the snipe, which isn't helpful? I don’t think he was sniping ... just pointing to the full legal argument.

Trump has far more urgent things to do in the next 35 days than releasing FnF. Given the alt left's attitude toward him, I think his entire business may face bankruptcy soon once he leaves the POTUS position. The left will show the country whoever goes against them will end up bankrupt, and probably in prison, so in the future no more Trumps will show up. Only RINOs and alt left socialists. But I just don't see how Trump can turnaround himself at this moment. I feel really sad for him and for this country. We’re getting far away from FNMA here ... but how is what you predict about Trump any different from what it’s been the last years. He only cares about himself, not about anyone else, not the country, and if he had to, he’d also throw Kushy Ivanka etc to the wolves .... do you really think he cares about some HF ‘buddy’ - his world is transactional and he’s made a reputation (fortune: more questionable) out of conning people (steaks anyone? Trump university to make you rich?). Look at Georgia - do you think he gives a flying crap about the two Republican senators ... or ‘his’ party? It was never his. He’s got a party of one only. Whatever you believe about left or right, this man as president really has been a shame for the country. He spits on the service of those who gave their lives for the country and calls them stupid. The US was always great, and didn’t need a bumbling want-to-be emperor to make it a reality TV show. Back to FNMA - if you want to put your faith in any politician doing something for his pals it’s still Mnuchin ... whether that’s a good bet or not, who knows .... ? Clearly it hasn’t been for the last four years (and I’ve been holding for far longer trusting that the courts will eventually end this madness).

There is no constructiveness in your post. May has little to do with anything. We're at 5% now, our guru estimates 15%, and it's very possible we go way above that. To avoid that obviousness is counterproductive, given that experts have estimated ~50% of pop contracting virus but only a fraction has to date. You know what would be productive? if some of you boardmembers entrenched in FnF for a decade (like me), but far more knowledgeable, would help us understand poor scenarios, instead of the same old 'the treasury is going to void their $200b because we're special' What's the point of this post? Whether you've been 'entrenched' or not, you're pretty new to CoB&F it seems, so perhaps you may want to lay off that sort of commentary. If you'll go back through posting history you'll see that cherzeca has made many, many insightful contributions to this community over the last decade, in particular on issues of a legal nature. (When I first joined here, I was all fire and brimstone and quick to give offence, and quick to take it - that's not constructive, and it took me a while to realise how that stifles debate and prevents one from learning.)

Can we please go back to discussing points related to developments which may impact the GSE's release from conservatorship, rather than any individual's calls on the stock price movements? (N.B.: I have no issue with MM's posts in this regard - any input is welcome, what I have an issue with is the discussion on whether TA works, MM's method works, MM was right or not, whether anyone should/not have followed him, etc. Everyone has to make their own call what signals/logic to follow.) :)

Has anyone looked at these recently? My thesis is that the economic repercussions of this crisis will reverberate beyond the COVID headlines, but then again all the cheap money may support credit markets sufficiently. Homebuilders on average seem in a much better financial position than in the last crisis. What's the board's views on which ones may be attractive and have sufficiently strong balance sheets so that even if things get worse, they will ultimately come through well? Thanks.

Thank you that's helpful. Which size screen do you have an how heavy is it (re comfort holding with one hand/reading on the couch or in bed)?

How is it different to using a kindle or to any of the other e-readers shown on that site? Thanks!

Chris, as always clear and to the point - much appreciated!