djokovic1

FFH usually has 1-1.5% exposure of the total cat loss. The $50bn wildfire estimate also includes losses that are insured by the California State (If I recall correctly). My best guess would be ~$300m on the wildfires.

@Crip1 I hear you. Everyone makes mistakes in investing (and life), just have to learn from them. The mistake of overlooking FFH in 2023 (which was the first time I came across it), was regrettable because it has all the elements I look for. Great capital allocation, 10/10 culture and a strong financial engine. And I was just lazy to not dig deeper at the time / too quick to say no. Well that’s been corrected. On the FFH train now.

Yes I agree with your assessment. It's very surprising that analysts dont use a 40 year track record for their inputs for arguably the biggest driver of ROE!! Common sense is again, not that common.

FYI Intact posted pretty solid results today. They trade at ~2.5x Fairfax's valuation.... I have a couple of questions. It's pretty clear that Fairfax can earn 15-20% ROE for the next few years given the locked in fixed income yields assuming normalised combined ratios and equity returns. 1. Then why are consensus expectations for 2025 and 2026 so low? In my view it doesnt require more than common sense to say, they will do much better than that assuming normalised cat losses and equity returns. 2. How do you think Fairfax would do in a very low interest rate environment. It doesnt seem likely that happens in the near term but for whatever reason if rates go down below 3%, Fairfax's ROE likely finds it much harder to get to 10%-15% ROE? Of course at current valuation, and the fixed income yields locked in, not a big issue for a few years.

I am the newest addition to the Fairfax shareholder list, as of this month. Yes, stupid and late I know But better late than never! I posted this on the Fairfax2025 thread but adding here for posterity: @Viking Firstly, I have to say thanks so much for your 550 page compendium. It is such an amazing piece of work. I love it. I have gone through it in detail. Me + 1 run a long only fund from the UK. I looked at Fairfax early 2023 and like an idiot didn't spend time on it because of the 2010 to 2018 period. Could I trust their capital allocation, this idiot said. Well I think it's not too late to correct that mistake. I have fallen in love with Fairfax over the last 2 months and you have helped a lot. So thank you! We now (finally) have a position in this beautiful company. As you and others on this forum allude to, even with the stock run up I think the risk reward on Fairfax right now is unmatched. I look forward to participating in this forum albeit, I wish I was smart enough to have found it at least a few years ago.

@Viking Firstly, I have to say thanks so much for your 550 page compendium. It is such an amazing piece of work. I love it. I have gone through it in detail. Me + 1 run a long only fund from the UK. I looked at Fairfax early 2023 and like an idiot didn't spend time on it because of the 2010 to 2018 period. Could I trust their capital allocation, this idiot said. Well I think it's not too late to correct that mistake. I have fallen in love with Fairfax over the last 2 months and you have helped a lot. So thank you! We now (finally) have a position in this beautiful company. As you and others on this forum allude to, even with the stock run up I think the risk reward on Fairfax right now is unmatched. I look forward to participating in this forum albeit, I wish I was smart enough to have found it at least a few years ago.