73 Reds

LOL, I think Sanjeev created personal messenger for that reason. Look, I'm not here to criticize you and please don't take this dialogue as such, but the personal attacks on many threads tend to undermine otherwise constructive conversations and really should end. Peace.

Again and for the final time, who cares?

Who appointed you to determine what is "independent"? Cubs can speak for himself but I can recall many instances where his opinion is not as you suggest a "mouthpiece" for Fox News and clearly his own thoughts and opinion. In any event, even if he does agree with Fox News, who says his thinking is not his own?

Thank you - you just made my point. You can choose who to agree with, or not. Same as any other poster on this board.

Why do so many here treat Fox News like the enemy? Don't folks understand that Fox News and Right Wing advocates like Rush Limbaugh came about solely as a reaction to a news media that had become entirely leftist? I am old enough to recall the days of real newsmen - Walter Cronkite, Chet Huntley, even David Brinkley. Sadly, those days are long gone. Do all you critics believe everything you hear and read from other National news outlets? Maybe their rapid decline in viewership/readership is simply a coincidence. Or, maybe a lot of folks have rightfully learned not to trust them because of outlets like Fox News. No one - not even the network itself suggests that most commentators on Fox News don't have an agenda. How refreshing that at least they acknowledge it. You can agree with them or not, no one really cares. But endless complaining about people who happen to agree with most of the policies they support is as about as mindless as complaining about mainstream media.

Another way to look at margin is three things can happen with margin and two are bad. Stocks go down, you lose. Stocks remain flat, you lose. Stocks go up by more than what margin costs, you win. (I know, stocks go up far more often than they go down). Just saying....

LOL, you're probably asking the wrong person for advice. I made lots (LOTS) of investment mistakes in my younger days but managed to learn from all of them. One involved an unexpected margin call and it stung. Admittedly back then I knew very little about the process and thought I'd have more time to bring the account up to speed (wrong!). So I guess my advice would be not to employ margin if the risks outweigh the potential benefit and even then, does the added benefit justify the risks? Only you can answer that question.

@Viking Stocks needed a reason to fall. Seriously. I recall before the US presidential election thinking that regardless of who won, stocks would go down (I posted something to that effect here). Two bad choices, albeit for different reasons don't lend themselves to investor confidence which we all know determines current prices. What is surprising is folks just now realized that Trump wasn't kidding about tariffs. Folks here on this board should be getting ready for an opportunity that doesn't often come along. Hopefully Buffett, too finds a way to wet his beak because unlike Covid, this has a readily foreseeable conclusion.

I don't use margin but certainly don't shun those that do. Personally if I were to use margin now it would be for a very specific, one time, can't-miss investment (but in more than 30 years that opportunity has never arisen). It is very important to understand how much leverage is permissible by your broker. You don't want to risk blowing up a portfolio over what are usually short term, but sometimes violent market downturns. Best investment advice (or any advice for that matter) ever given to me was live to fight another day.

No issue here with your portfolio mix but that isn't the only issue. What are your means? Are you prepared in the event of a margin call?

@LC That's a great post. I do something similar with my various real estate businesses and interests. When prices rise, the lending business is active and lucrative. When prices fall, time to buy. Rentals are always good due to location and title pays a lot of bills.

@Red Lion Even the scenario you posted requires context. How much of the $3-$4 million portfolio is comprised of capital gains? How long did it take you to build that portfolio? If you're still "young", why can't you do it again (and again)? If you're competent, both your income level and investment skills will likely continue to improve over time.

Well, retirement is another one of those things that is different for everyone. I always hated the thought of doing nothing productive so if "retirement" still involves some sort of money-making activity, don't sweat it as much.

My perspective (also practiced) is while you're young, focus more on your earnings potential - do something that interests you and provides growth opportunities if at all possible. Adjust your lifestyle so your earnings always exceeds what you spend and save/invest the rest. The young folks I see and try to help often are either good investors but spend too much or have plenty of disposable income but shy away from taking adequate risk. Find a proper balance to suit your own capabilities but living below your means requires mostly just discipline. When you're young and market downdrafts scare you it is primarily because you lack the means to invest at the right times, i.e., during scary periods.

Good strategy for a lot of folks but don't go all in at once. As an aside, someone needs to explain to me why most stocks growing 5-10%/year with not much optionality are worth 20-30x earnings. Call me old fashioned.

Yup. Trading in and out with non-taxable funds is a question of risk/reward but when you throw taxes into the mix, the costs are higher and chances of being right rather than sitting tight are that much worse. Your 6-8 weeks often becomes many months or even years for a lot of folks. Hardly worth it.

He did the prudent thing under the circumstances. I don't have an agenda but have a hard time understanding those that do.

Isn't hindsight a beautiful thing? Doing nothing as you suggest, in the wake of thousands of people getting sick and dying every day was not an option. Yet in my home state (Florida) which has a population more than twice the size of Sweden, we were "shut down" for about as long as it took to blink. Blaming Trump for shutdowns ignores the fact that local governments determined how restrictive life was on their respective citizens. Florida's economy did just fine, thank you. Others, not so well.

Really? How many people were traveling in and out of Sweden?

Horrible mistake? What would you have done Mr. Kemosahbee?

Why is this surprising? More importantly does this have any bearing on the future price of oil and the dynamics that drive supply and demand? Your instincts on the value (not current price) of oil are probably correct.

So Trump shut down the economy? Not where I lived but that's a good one. Shoulda/Woulda/Coulda is simply an excuse. My recollection is the World was in panic and Trump did everything possible NOT to shut everything down.

Blake, glad you're back. I'm trying to think of all the horrible consequences of Trump's first term but can't seem to recall any.

@Viking I love you man, but placing too much emphasis on one individual at one point in time, or subscribing permanent [anything] to what we all knew since November was coming is IMO not a successfully investible long term strategy. Tradable? Sure, for those so inclined. From a realistic fear factor, Covid at its outset had far more dire potentially bad consequences. The entire dialogue here regarding tariffs reminds me of the old Abbott and Costello skit "Whose on First, What's on Second"? (For anyone here too young to know what this is I highly recommend Googling the act.). Everyone with an opinion seems to know exactly what is going to happen from now until forever. Let's check back in 6 months and determine precisely where we are with trade, relationships and business in general. Personally I've funded 4 separate transactions in the last 10 days and have two more upcoming closings. No one I know or do business with has any dire concerns about their own situations. People are realistic that asset prices don't rise indefinitely and even the best of businesses go through cycles and difficult times. Bear markets actually happen. That doesn't make great businesses worth any less in the long run and gives people like us opportunities.

Yet even for all its cash, one can argue that the discount between BV and price is far more today than it was 18 years ago. Berkshire's price would have to go a lot higher and prices of anything else of interest would have to be MUCH lower before I'd consider selling.