Blake Hampton

2023 U.S. government financials Total net cost: $7.9 trillion - Department of Health and Human Services: $1.7 trillion, 26% of total - Department of Veterans Affairs: $1.5 trillion, 19% of total - Social Security Administration: $1.4 trillion, 18% of total - Department of Defense: $1 trillion, 13% of total - Interest on Treasury Securities held by the public: $0.7 trillion, 9% These top 5: $6.3 trillion, 83% of total Let's cut more taxes!!! Best of luck to Elon and his DOGE!!!

I'm not a gold bug but this is still super interesting.

I am super bearish. The current financial state of our country points directly toward large inflationary pressure in the future. Given that one of our central bank's primary objectives is price stability, it's highly likely that interest rate increases will follow. Potential effects from such a scenario: - Substantially higher interest expenses across the board, as everyone has to refinance old debt issued during ZIRP - Increased government interest expenses, which will almost certainly lead to large changes surrounding both taxation and spending policies - A higher discount rate for assets In 1977, Buffett wrote about how equities had historically delivered a mean return on book value of roughly 12%. While this figure may be a bit outdated, I still believe it holds relevance. The tremendous increases in ROE we’ve seen in recent years has largely been driven by historically low interest rates and corporate tax expenses. I believe the market now is more expensive than it was in 1999, and imagine how long a dotcom recovery would have taken if the whole system hadn't been geared toward equity owners. Currently, the S&P 500's P/B and TTM ROE is 5.3x and 17.2% respectively. Remember, this is everyone's retirement account. Buffett is clearly fortifying. He holds essentially no fixed-income, more than half of his portfolio is cash, and the rest is equities. History has shown that assets can experience large price decreases sustained over many years. Inflation included, it could be worse. The last two major financial crises in 2008 and 2020 were both catastrophic, potentially Great Depression level events, where the U.S. government had to step in. My concern is that our past savior might be the source of the next crisis.

All this talk is almost certainly pointless because it seems everyone here is solidified in their own beliefs. It makes me sad that Buffett is as old as he is. This country needs a financial lighthouse now more than ever, but would they even listen?

Trump committed fraud, plain and simple. He mismarked assets so that his company could get better financing terms from Banks. He got caught, was fined $450 million, and what did ole' Donny boy do to save his own ass? He issued equity in a nearly worthless meme stock to raise money. But you guys are probably right. This case, including the multiple other cases that were all presided over by different judges and juries, are all total frauds. Our entire judicial system is a sham overseen by the ghost of Stalin himself. Trump is a moron. I almost certain his ass is gonna cause a financial crisis during the next four years, and the funny thing is he doesn't understand the economic dynamics of which he is now involved. It will be interesting none-the-less.

There are no atheists in foxholes and there are no crypto holders in a cash crunch

This is wisdom

- Trump is a fraud committing felon - BTC will be worthless the second people need cash

Very rarely I think you get a good interview on CNBC, but they are rare

Our country is doomed

Bitcoin is the new oil lol

Interesting thread. From everybody here who has a pool, would you personally recommend for someone else to get one?

Look at how much fixed-income Buffett currently owns, I believe the treasury markets are asking for it. The problem to me lies in the fact that every other asset market is underpinned by treasuries, particularly real estate through mortgage financing.

Buffett’s ability to continue holding onto a stock is simply incredible to me. Even though he talks against market timing, it almost seems that he is incredibly good at it. I’ve read about how people consider him holding KO past the late 90s being a mistake, but I imagine this trait has done him far more good over the years than bad. I just don’t understand it. When does Buffett truly decide it’s time to sell?