Blake Hampton

This could certainly be the situation if Biden is re-elected. If Trump becomes president however, companies will soon have a negative tax rate and actually receive tax revenue from the government.

This guy has some of the most informative financial content I’ve ever found: MoneyWeek MoneyContent Make sure to sort by popular since all the best uploads are kinda old

What do you think about his overall allocation between equities / bonds / cash?

Berkshire has essentially no money in long-term bonds, with the little that he does being primarily in foreign governments.

After adjusting for corporate taxes, Shiller PE is currently sitting around where it was at the peak of the tech bubble.

I don’t know what to think anymore Link - might be worth a read

You know it’s funny because I’m young, my point being that I’ve only been investing for a couple of years now. I think that if I were to have started say 10-15 years ago, I might view the current situation completely different. I’m sure that is some form of bias and I don’t know how to feel about it to be honest.

I thought the Value Line binders were cool. Too bad the print subscription only sends you like 17 papers a month now.

No those are good examples. I just feel like the way that I see things, these current yields on long term bonds are not sufficient enough to account for the risk I would take buying them.

I very much disagree with your opinion towards climate change. Average global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented rate starting about 200 years ago or so. This directly correlates with humanity’s large usage of fossil fuels for energy. I’m not a fanatic who stands in front of cars and demands for oil executives to be hung, I think fossil fuels have done an unbelievably great service for humans. However, I do think people need to consider how we are going to transition from our current energy situation. The future of the world depends on it.

I feel like focus should be more-so on long term interest rates. Long bonds yielding 4.5% is crazy to me when you can get 5.25% on cash. This is before you consider a FED that is currently in the process of shrinking its balance sheet, effectively adding more pressure. I’ve heard talks about the possibility of a future debt crisis concerning lack of demand in treasury auctions. Looking at TreasuryDirect, auctions seem to be relatively strong right now, but I still can’t come to understand why people are buying at current yields. I’ll agree with Buffett though. I’m thinking our current situation is more of a fiscal problem than a monetary one.

I’m starting to think more-so fixed income

Is this illegal?

You know the funny thing to me is that if you go and talk to any financial advisor, they will be very quick to tell you that equites have historically returned about 10%. This can also be “confirmed” with a simple google search. As you probably already assumed, I don’t believe equities will return anything close to that at current prices. Maybe then people are going into this with false assumptions.

This is from Seth Klarman in June of 2023. The market has appreciated approximately 20% since this interview was aired. Legendary investor Seth Klarman on investing challenges: We've been in an 'everything bubble'