Intelligent_Investor
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Posts posted by Intelligent_Investor
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Lots of people use the Nifty fifty bust in the 70s as a cautionary tale of buying great companies too expensive and while its true that the bust was big and took a while to recover from, if you held an equal weighted basket of nifty fifty stocks bought the day before the crash and held for the next 45-50 years you would have outperformed every index by a large margin. In the end the truly great companies in the nifty fifty were what made a difference over time, when you have companies that can compound capital at high teens for decades its very very hard to pay too high a price just due to the math of compound growth.
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EV/FCF, P/E or P/whatever are shit metrics because it doesn't take into account capital structure, they basically only work if the company is cash neutral
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China was down the last several weeks, I'm assuming someone probably got wind of the news and was pricing it in
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Market is probably pricing in the WSJ news this morning that the US is preparing to sanction China
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Lmao this dude is a clown. Imagine shorting Microsoft or Amazon because its 18% overvalued based on what you think fair value should be. If I was an investor in his fund I'd be pulling capital right now because he obviously doesn't know how to manage money. Probably has a burner on r/WSB
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3 hours ago, hillfronter83 said:
how often do we see billion$ market cap wiped out in 10 minutes?
I'd assume quite frequently...big tech can move tens of billions in market cap in a single tick
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People are realizing rates and monetary policy will barely make a dent in inflation if you have a government that is gonna rain fiscal stimulus from the sky. Rate cuts generally only effect that ultra-rich and wall street, not as much main street. But fiscal stimulus and policies such as rent moratoriums, student loan forgiveness etc all puts money directly in the pockets of the average person who then goes out and spends driving up prices. Cutting rates will lead to asset price inflation, not inflation of every day items, and most assets are owned by the rich anyways who are have a lower propensity to spend vs the average middle class family.
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IIRC they are investigating if dirty fuel was the reason for the power loss
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Depends on timeframe tbh. 3/4 will probably not be great long term compounders, so if your time horizon is decades and not years it might be better to go with stuff like tech every 2-3 years when they get cheap for no damn reason.
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29 minutes ago, bizaro86 said:
Republicans buy insurance to.
Charging high fees for bespoke insurance that no one else can write is what I want Berkshire to do. If they didn't feel his collateral was good then fine, but I hope they aren't giving up lucrative opportunities for political/optics reasons.
I feel like they always have, Warren once he got big enough knew one of the biggest risks to Berkshire was political risk so he wants no part in that at all
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I wasn't alive long enough to take advantage of Berkshire's huge run before the 2000s
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50 minutes ago, MMM20 said:
Low short interest just means it’s not a highly shorted stock and the borrow cost is probably cheap. In other words, it’s a contrarian short (at least not a crowded one) which is the best kind if you’re proven right.
In this case, I think the odds are good that some big fund out there with a ~$50-100mm short decided to exit before earnings and therefore paid Muddy Waters with their big following to publish this during the quiet period. This is quite common and somehow legal, though regulatory changes are apparently in the works right now.
It might also partially explain the low quality of the work vs. some others we’ve seen from MW.
Wouldn't that be insider trading if Muddy Waters shorted due to knowing insider info that a large shareholder was selling? That sounds pretty illegal to me
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Honestly if he wants to short a few more shares I can lend him mine. Just gotta call me up
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Most short sellers are frauds themselves is what I've found.
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Fiber buildout makes a lot of sense for large telcos trying to replace copper networks to reduce opex, as you are trading a high upfront cost for lower run rate opex, which only really pays off if you have a large enough scale. Not sure how the economics shake out for smaller players
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Can you do custom metrics or average over a certain time period on TIKR
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Over a short term on pure valuation I think there is a good chance small caps can beat the Mag 7, but long term its very hard to beat a capital light business that can compound equity at 20%+ for over a decade
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Tbh churning CC rewards is probably higher ROI given there are methods you can float the spend
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Its very rare, most screens just turn up pages and pages of shitcos. Computers have really arbed the shit out of certain types of stocks
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Its kinda hard to find cheap growth-ish stocks unless you are willing to back up the truck when megacaps get wrecked for some reason. You could've bought META, GOOGL, and AMZN for $90/share or less just a year ago and Chinese tech can still be had for less than 10x FCF. I've had quite good performance finding low growth, but high quality small to mid caps and buying them dirt cheap. Signet jewelers was trading for around 5x normalized FCF just a few months ago, but they aren't really a growth stock.
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Close to $1k USD
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37 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
There are no options much less leaps with nanocaps. The exception may be a mid cap that becomes a nanocap because it is on the verge of bankruptcy but in this case, the stock is already trading like an option.
I see. I've seen small caps in the 100M-200M range with options, so I assumed it would be possible to find something a bit under 100M with options, but I guess that might be very rare
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I feel like with true nanocaps that are undervalued the play is probably LEAPS, because most are either value traps or multibaggers, so the end payout even if owning the common stock looks a lot like an option payout anyways. The option leverage will in turn probably turn a 5x return into a 50 bagger
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Probably gonna start selling my position in SIG if they hit the 105-110 range again. I was out of the country when they got to 107 last month. 105-110 is close enough to fair value that it won't be worth trying to squeeze out a few more bucks per share, so I'll take profits at that range
Why Do Investors Feel Entitled to Every High Water Mark?
in General Discussion
Posted
Im like the exact opposite I get sad I didn't buy more at the bottom when I could have.