Jump to content

Luca

Members
  • Posts

    2,789
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by Luca

  1. 31 minutes ago, Spooky said:

    New Howard marks memo just dropped, talks about the effects of declining interest rates over the last 40 years on investment returns and how there is a sea change happening:

     

    https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/sea-change.pdf?sfvrsn=a69a4066_7

     

    Ends on the note that his base case is rates in the 2-4% range and doesn't see them dropping back to 0-2% any time soon and the investment strategies that worked best over the past 13 years may not be the ones that outperform in the years ahead. I think he is correct.

     

    A reason why i shifted in stock picker, value investing type buisnesses lately. BRK, Markel, bit of Fairfax.

  2. 30 minutes ago, gfp said:

    These are from quarterly NAIC filings:  NAIC = National Association of Insurance Commissioners.  Columbia Insurance is a large insurance subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway that goes all the way back to the Diversified Retailing days (it was a subsidiary of Diversified Retailing, the department store company).  National Indemnity even larger, as you would expect.  Other individual filers are General Re and Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance.  Some insurance subsidiaries don't file on their own because they are subsidiaries of other insurance companies.  These are screenshots because to find this information in the filing would take most people a lot of time.  Here are a few of the Q3 filings (attached) - edit: they are too big and taking too long to upload so here is one.

     

    You can buy the individual filings at the naic website here https://insdata.naic.org

     

    Another interesting thing you can see from these filings is the internal structure of Berkshire Hathaway through the multiple Org charts they include on what all the corporate entities are, which subsidiaries own what, etc.  Also it becomes very obvious that Berkshire went huge on affordable housing tax credits when it hired over the guy that build AIG's affordable housing business.

     

    National Indemnity Q3 NAIC.pdf 37.28 MB · 1 download

    Great, Thank you!!

  3. 14 hours ago, gfp said:

    This screenshot is from National Indemnity Q3 NAIC filing - showing purchases of stock inside National Indemnity only.  I thought it was interesting that Buffett was buying TSM as early as August 25th at around $88/share.  Makes it more likely he continued to buy the stock after quarter end but that is a guess.

     

    (I should add that several of these entries are intercompany transfers and the rightmost column is price paid, second from the right is number of shares)

     

    image.thumb.png.8d7d007fba4d558208dd3f1384431da4.png

     

    He bought another billion dollars worth of TSM at around $76.84 / sh. inside Columbia Insurance Company.

     

    image.thumb.png.5e9d3c98659efb3c8b407fe3507c2598.png

    What kind of filing is this? I dont understand how you were able to find this information. Columbia Insurance what? Would like to understand 🙂

  4. 1 hour ago, Castanza said:

     

    Did the same exact thing except I sold SMH. Was able to pick up some TSM after hours when WB news came out. Haven't added to INTC since my initial buy last year. Looks like a good amount of insider buying at these levels. 

    Yeah, i own Micron,TSMC,ASML and INTEL (ordered by position size) now. I think each of them has a good chance to be worth a lot more in the future. I am least certain about intel but also think at this price its not too bad. Pat looks like a decent CEO, proved himself before. They are really behind but i think there is a chance they will find their place and produce cashflows far into the future. 

  5. 10 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

     

    Seems to me every nearly every fiat currency this year has failed this exact same test. 

     

    Is +/- 20-30% really considered "stable"? 

     

    Can you point one out that has maintained purchasing power over even the last 10-years? 

     

    Because 10-years ago BTC was a fraction of where it's at today no matter which currency or asset you measure it in. Which one "maintained" purchasing power? 

     

    Good point, a good currency like the swiss frank is relatively stable. 

     

    Look at all other coins, losing 90% of their value. This is just too much.

  6. 9 hours ago, Parsad said:

     

    Crypto was never worth anything.  It's the blockchain backbone that is important.  It will work its way into every asset class in the future and every financial transaction.  Cheers!

     

    To be honest i dont understand blockchain, could very well be great technology usable for a lot of things. 

     

    @Parsad Do you own any crypto?

  7. 1 hour ago, Viking said:

    What a bloodbath in crypto. Billions $ are getting eviscerated. What is the next shoe to fall? Where are the skeletons? There is no transparency/oversight in this ‘industry’ which makes the path forward pretty much impossible to call. And so much of this industry is intertwined. 
    ————-

    i wonder how much windfall gains in crypto was fuelling economic growth in 2021. How does this now work in reverse? Is the crypto crash now bigger than the .com crash?

    —————

    Trust is gone. How does crypto work without trust?

    I agree with Pabrai here: Crypto will vaporize into nothing. Crypto market was around a few trillion at its all time highs, not a huge part of global wealth but certainly an effect on markets. 

     

    Bitcoin is worth nothing to me, not even 1$. 

     

    What exactly is crypto? 

     

    Three things it could be according to Aswath Damodaran:

     

    1. Asset

     

    Its not an asset since it doesnt produce anything. 

     

    2. Collectible

     

    Collectible grow in value in inflation and are stable, look at a picasso painting, will go up in value with inflation long term, doesnt lose lots of the value, even during crisis. This is not true for bitcoin.

     

    3. Currency

     

    Yes, Bitcoin is a currency. But currency do not have value, they have a price. 

     

    A good currency is: Stable and maintains purchasing power+is usable. 

     

    Crypto or bitcoin is nothing of those. It is not stable (stable coins excluded) and you cant use it (in the majority of cases). 

     

     

     

    Quote Aswath Damodaran: 

     

    What the heck are you paying 20k for!!!!!!

     

     

  8. Why is Fairfax so much preferred over Markel here?

     

    Feel like Markel offers similiar attributes with even Buffett buying the stock lately...

     

    I own Markel too and wondered why i should buy Fairfax if i can buy BRK or Markel as a smaller top notch insurer.

     

     

  9. 1 hour ago, hillfronter83 said:

    It's not about what he says. Everybody supportive of economic reform were pushed out. There will be fundamental changes in the country's direction going forward and nobody can stop him now.

     

     

    Very mixed signals from Xi, supporting businesses and common prosperity/socialist reforms, lots of FUD

  10. Sold my stake in Alibaba and shifted the remains into tencent and prosus equally. 

     

    I think Tencent will be able to circumvent regulations better than Baba (regulation wise) and has more experience in foreign investments which makes it a bit more protected against political turmoil. 

     

    Also has higher Cashflow and more attractive metrics than Baba.

  11. 2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

    Yes, i think there is a significant probability that the financial markets between of China HK will be cut of from the western financial system. That means that you may not be able to have access to your HK or chinese shares any more.

     

    The consequences of such an invasion would be much more severe than with the Ukraine war, due to the relative size of the Chinese economy vs the Russian economy.

    I see it like that aswell.

  12. 12 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

    What do you think will happen for chinese stocks after a taiwan invasion? Will the stock market be cut off as with russia? Even if we hold share in HK? I am thinking of leaving my china positions and buying some tsm 😄 If i loose the total value anyways if the invasion happens id rather hold tsm than alibaba currently...

  13. On 9/10/2022 at 3:31 AM, stahleyp said:

     

    The dude lost his mind. Why value his thoughts on this topic?

     

    I think he is even more relevant today than ever and was far ahead of his time back then. Wouldnt underestimate Nietzsche. He got ill yes 😄

×
×
  • Create New...