alertmeipp
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Posts posted by alertmeipp
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What puzzle me the most the demand and supply is still tight.
Look at the eia data that just released. We are talking about 1 percent gap.
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Almost 20 percent swing today.
They probably will cut capex and let production drop if they do both buyback and dividend.
Until oil price recover or another major asset sales.
They said they will try to live within cash flow.
Asset sale very unlikely at this environment. I actually think cutting the dividend make little sense for now. Cut fifty percent only save them 48m.
Like ten percent of flow fund.
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management has bought 500k shares last week. they again didn't operate well.
unreal that this was at 6 when they close the last deal and now trade less than half.
Insiders will get a double before many other break even.
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I started my company in 2004 with 25,000 Euros in equity. Until the end of 2010 operating earnings were much larger than investments. At the end of 2010 investments reached 1 million Euros for the first time, and truly started to matter. I have zero debt.
Yesterday the value of my firm’s investments exceeded 2 million Euros for the first time. Little more than a 20% cagr during the last 3 years and 10 months.
I am particularly satisfied by the way I have reached such a goal. Always behaving very conservatively and keeping as detached from stock market gyrations as possible. 30% of my capital has always remained invested in Fairfax, and another 20%-30% always in cash.
On the contrary, of course, if I had been more aggressive, by now I would probably be at 2.5 or 3 million Euros! ;)
Cheers,
Gio
What is the subject "doubled my capital for first time" mean? you went from 25,000 to 2millions, that's many times of doubling... what am I not understanding?
I first thought he meant that yesterday he doubled his money in one day -- a first for him. In that case he's got me beat because my record is two days.
I have my personal double in days experience, but later I found, getting a double is no where as hard as keeping the doubled. You guys definitely passed the challenges.
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I started my company in 2004 with 25,000 Euros in equity. Until the end of 2010 operating earnings were much larger than investments. At the end of 2010 investments reached 1 million Euros for the first time, and truly started to matter. I have zero debt.
Yesterday the value of my firm’s investments exceeded 2 million Euros for the first time. Little more than a 20% cagr during the last 3 years and 10 months.
I am particularly satisfied by the way I have reached such a goal. Always behaving very conservatively and keeping as detached from stock market gyrations as possible. 30% of my capital has always remained invested in Fairfax, and another 20%-30% always in cash.
On the contrary, of course, if I had been more aggressive, by now I would probably be at 2.5 or 3 million Euros! ;)
Cheers,
Gio
What is the subject "doubled my capital for first time" mean? you went from 25,000 to 2millions, that's many times of doubling... what am I not understanding?
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LTS - Insider just bought 66900 shares
Another 30100 shares yesterday.
Hope it's from management.
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Saw that, he sure puts the money where his mouth is.
But i think there is glut, but if the glut is 1-2% (about 1m boe/d), how much WTI needs to go down to balance it?
Is 20-30 bucks enough?
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Thanks, Kevin. Just that the way u said it, I thought u mean there is a huge glut now. They tried shale gas in mexico and china few years ago.. didn't work out for some reasons.
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Kevin,
re: huge supply glut. - what are your #s? I see we are over-supplied about about 1% (~92 vs ~93).. you call that huge? or u have different #s?
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LTS - Insider just bought 66900 shares
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Once in a lifetime opportunity to lose lots of money in really short amount of time for sure.
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Typical LTS release, operation issue here and there. :-\
Swan Hills news is both good and bad, with certain WTI pricing, it's better for them not to piss money away. What is the 3rd infrastructure impairment they refer to?
Still no actual buyback, why have NCIB in place but never used it.
Cheap based on assets, but management is weak.
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Some funds closing out on oct and oil cant bounce above 82
I bet most of the margin selling is done given the 65 percent drop from top.
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Yes.
I too am finding the drop incredible especially compare to the asset sale metrics. But the drop in wti and brent is serious even if you factor in the cdn exchange rate.
Anyone adding to oil exposure? Canadian seems out of favor again.
Sd looks interesting given their hedge and growth.
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time to load up?
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this is the key - "Who knows what oil prices will do. "
Leverage hits both ends, and one of its growth asset in in doubt pending update.
They sold about 15% of their assets for 729m last year, and now the market says the remaining assets worth less than 2.3b or less.
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We all have to decide whether the fd cost of $60 is one off event or here to stay. No point to argue here
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Next if you do a quick and dirty NAV it comes out to approx. $3.8/shr. My conservative quant model gives a sub $2/share NAV (down from $6, and it takes into account other assets and liabilities). So basically the company destroyed 60-70% of value with a terrible return on a huge capex. It's gone, the company is nearly worthless for equity holders. This was also in a time of high oil prices.
really? recommended in jan and 9 months later stock is worthless
Not even 9 months, he changed mind after the March report. So it's more than 2 months. He missed the run up to 9 bucks, but he also missed this massive selling. :'(
I was hoping asset sales with such good metrics would provide a floor to LTS's share price. How wrong I am.
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The FD cost jumped to $50 (not $70) because of so called some "one time" expense and some -ve revisions, it was explained. Historically, FD is about $30 per barrel. 2014 is projected to be $25 to 30. With $50 netback, it's good return. They have good assets (you can tell from the prices they got and the time those assets are getting sold)
Not the best management, no argument. But I see some potential short term catalysts.
More info:
http://www.lightstreamresources.com/news/news-releases.cfm?newsReleaseAction=view&releaseId=146
During 2013, our capital program resulted in the addition of 20.7 MMboe 2P reserves and 11.5 MMboe of TP reserves. With a total of 16.9 MMboe of reserves produced during the year, this resulted in our 2013 capital program replacing 122% of 2013 production.
For the year ended December 31, 2013, we realized net technical revisions that resulted in 2P reserves being reduced by 7.9 MMboe. The technical revisions to our reserves bookings were primarily comprised of the removal, or reduction, in reserve bookings for areas within southeast Saskatchewan and, to a lesser extent, the Cardium where off-setting production did not economically support the reserve bookings on a go-forward basis.
Inclusive of the net negative technical revisions, our 2013 2P F&D was $57.63/boe (including land) and $56.49/boe (excluding land). We view this as unacceptably high and anomalous due primarily to capital expenditures that did not impact reserves and net negative technical reserve revisions. These revisions accounted for an increase in our 2P F&D of approximately $21.83/boe. Some items of our capital spending during 2013 that were considered to be unique included:
Facility cost overruns of $25mm for projects initiated in late 2012;
$30mm for pipeline and facility infrastructure to tie-in existing Bakken wells that have been drilled over the past 3 years, resulting in an operating cost savings of over $10/boe for these projects on a go-forward basis. Based on our pace of development in the Bakken we have minimal plans to complete additional infrastructure projects of this magnitude in the future;
Initial costs during the evaluation phase of the Swan Hills area program amounted to approximately $15mm of additional capital compared to our current program design; and
Drilling capital of $35mm to test new play concepts that did not result in any immediate reserve assignments.
Our 2013 2P F&D before revisions was $35.80/boe. Taking into account all of our expenditures and reserve revisions, our three-year weighted average F&D cost, including land, is $33.07/boe, generating an operating recycle ratio of 1.5 times, based on a $50.80/boe netback. We are targeting 2014 F&D costs to be within our historical range of $25.00/boe to $30.00/boe, as we do not expect the above mentioned 2013 costs to be recurring.
2P reserves in the Cardium business unit increased from 93.7 MMboe in 2012 to 95.4 MMboe in 2013, replacing 124% of production. Large positive revisions were also made due to performance and increased gas to oil ratios in the area. In 2013, 2P FD&A costs for this business unit were $24.95/boe (including revisions), generating an operating recycle ratio of 1.9 times based on our operating netback for the business unit of $47.54/boe. We expect the Cardium business unit to continue to be a key source of growth, with a development drilling inventory of over 530 net locations, of which 202 net locations were included in the Sproule Evaluation.
2P reserves in the Bakken business unit (before dispositions) were down slightly in 2013, resulting in year-end 2P reserves of 72.8 MMboe. The potential for future EOR-related reserve growth in the Bakken is encouraging after receiving initial 2P reserve recognition for the early stage success of our pilot natural gas flood. We now have 415 Mboe of reserves added that can be attributed to our EOR program. At year-end, we had an inventory of over 900 net locations in the business unit, of which 275 net locations were included in the Sproule Evaluation.
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Also both cardium and bakken are not new plays. There are lots of info out there.
And these two assets are generating net cash.
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They dont just look at short term pricing.
Hope LTS just sell Bakken off and do a huge buyback.
90 percent oil with low decline rate and generating free cash flow.
In good old days, they play alone should worth more than the EV.
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Pretty strong showing for pennwest today.
We will have our day.
Do not look at todays wti pricing and assume this is the price for next few years.
You better have a sense about how the pricing will go before putting money in.
For example, if u see 60 oil, go short any oil name out there.
If we.need.above 100wti, crap like lts sd pwe xco will do fine.
Forget about Saudi will cut production because they need 100 oil.
That was one of the biggest bs i have fall into.
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Well, both xco and sd ends up 20 percent for today.
At least some oil stocks are going up finally.
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Yes. No idea why sd chk xco can be up so well while pwe lt continue to get killed.
Canadian oil patch for sale!
in General Discussion
Posted
A dip if the major players are rational.
Everybody cuts 1-2% of their output and they can sell their remaining 98% for ~30% more.
But rational is too much to expect sometimes.