alertmeipp
-
Posts
2,641 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by alertmeipp
-
-
On 1/5/2023 at 2:42 PM, Parsad said:
I'm just throwing out a low number based on other analyst reports for what the overall portfolio is worth. For me, the $500M value is the ownership in tZero alone. Cheers!
Very interesting name, 400mm-500mm for the retail business itself is cheap.
Seems its larger competitors are selling at way higher valuation with less profitability.
-
17 hours ago, Parsad said:
I'm going to stick to what I threw out last year...it's just become a bigger bargain and ridiculously cheap. Maybe the cheapest it's ever been other than during the March 2020 pandemic.
OSTK - Overstock.com
Jonathan Johnson runs it now instead of the erratic Patrick Byrne. They switched over to selling higher margin "Home" goods instead of everything, so that cut into sales over the last 6 months. But essentially:
You have a $2B revenue online retailer that is completely profitable selling for $850M. But they have $430M of cash on hand that they don't use...plus a corporate office that is worth north of $70M. Only about $35M of debt that was issued to build the corporate office for $50M.
Finally, you have their entire Medici Ventures portfolio, including the stake in tZero, that is now managed by tech private equity firm Pelion Ventures. That portfolio is worth a minimum of $500M and could be worth up to $4-5B depending on what they can do with it and how they monetize it over the next few years.
So you're paying net $400M or so for the entire retail business that does $2B in revenue and a no expiry call option on all of Medici Ventures. If you believe in blockchain long-term, this one is frickin' cheap and a true deep value stock! Cheers!
How do get the min 500mm value for Medici Ventures portfolio?
-
6 hours ago, LearningMachine said:
What do folks think Li Lu means by following? Is he saying Chinese indexes are not good to invest in because China hasn't yet "entered the modern age," or is he saying they are good to invest in? Chinese indexes haven't gone anywhere over the last 10 years. Wonder if it is because companies have been making false accounting statements/projections, companies have been printing shares, CCP hasn't been letting companies exercise pricing power, new companies have been entering at a fast rate & increasing competition, existing companies have been expanding & competing too much, P/E multiples have compressed, or something else? Has anyone looked into it?
LearningMachine, why don't you "learn" more about it and get back to us?
You have been consistently bashing CCP and China without any solid backing. Seems very odd for you to keep posting all these bad things about investing in Chinese companies and then ask if anyone look into it.
-
We are thinking to rent as well. But rental availability in the area that we are interested in are absolutely scarce.
Many moved out from downtown to Suburban due to COVID and WFH. And some owners want to sell now rather than rent their properties out.
The move will be permanent (for now) and I am afraid to carry a big mortgage as I think the real impact of COVID and consequences of government policy during it is yet to come...
Thanks everyone!
-
Was going to move to either Vancouver or Toronto last year. COVID changed things. And now, houses in both locations are like 30% 40% more (yes, from 700k to 1.1 million )....
Our relatives there are saying there is no sign of slowing down neither.
My wife thinks we should defer our move until the insanity eases.
Thoughts?
-
Feb printed tons of money in 08/09.... we didn't have inflation then? why now?
-
I was bullish on it.
but man, it sucks to see a few management sell large portion of their share during the run up (not even close to the top)
-
I am selling a stock in my iTrade account today, the bid is lower than what's available in my IB account.
I placed my sell based on my IB bid.. it won't get executed... I can sell the stock in IB with higher BID...
I guess the 6.99 is not really 6.99.
-
not so if this guy is in charge.. he is in one of Biden's advisors ???
He said the government could borrow enough money to pay for a package that would cover lost income for individuals and governments during a shutdown.
“We could pay for a package right now to cover all of the wages, lost wages for individual workers for losses to small companies to medium-sized companies or city, state, county governments. We could do all of that,” he said. “If we did that, then we could lockdown for four-to-six weeks.”
“The problem with the March-to-May lockdown was that it was not uniformly stringent across the country. For example, Minnesota deemed 78 percent of its workers essential,” they wrote in the New York Times. “To be effective, the lockdown has to be as comprehensive and strict as possible.”
-
Mortgage fraud
Fake income statements pay stubs
Moving money around from relatives just before mortgage approval.
Fake employment letter
Were the norm
The motto was get in before it’s too late.
Now it’s too late.
-
There are billions of shadow banks and p2p mortgage up there.
Median income of 60 70k, average house price near 1m.
50 percent of condo buyers are investors not end users. Half of those are in negative cash flow position.
It’s going to be very ugly.
Btw, BC is cracking down millions of illegal money that are tunnelling throughout real estate as well.
-
understood the uncertainty introduced by the sunset clause.. but isn't the uncertainty there anyways? why not get it done, wait five years and hope Trump will be gone by then.
I agree to some, even without the sunset clause, if I have large US customer base, I will open a factory in US just to be safe.
-
Trump or any future president or prime minster can tear it apart anyways even without the sunset clause? What am i missing?
-
The general thinking or misunderstanding is real estate is risk free always go up or can't come down too much and is best way to save up for retirement. The return is huge tho. 20% down and house up 30% yoy... Thats 150% return.
And most just flip assignment so capital cost is even lower.
Get in before it's too late.
Unfortunately those ppl have been right for last two decades.
We will see what next decade brings.
-
Couple of thoughts after talking to some property brokers.
House buying is not rational. All the metrics in the world are meaningless as soon as your significant other informs you that 'this is the one'; you will pay whatever it takes, and twist the financial logic until it supports your decision.
I don't believe that's correct. There are definitely non-economic factors at play, just like with buying a car (what brand projects the type of image that I want to show? Will it attract a mate? etc), but money is still a big factor and not everyone is driving a Tesla or Maserati just because that's what they'd really want deep down.
Right now what pushes people to overpay for real estate is the belief that prices can't go down for any period (so FOMO + fear of being priced out + we'll just take the equity out later to pay for consumption). If that psychology changes, or if lots of people start being unable to make ends meet as interest rates keep raising and RE rules are tightened, things will change... If you adjust for inflation, most generations in the past didn't buy the equivalent of million+ dollar houses (especially not ones that are just regular houses and not luxury mansions).
If you understand Mandarin, listen to those Chinese radio station in Toronto, its commercials are mostly ask ppl to buy houses.
-
still up like 20% yoy in Toronto.
the 40% run in a year was too much..... not sure how ppl can afford one... it will be like mortgage for life even for middle class family.
-
what is everyone's guess about Toronto's house prices going forward.
it dropped 15 20 percent from peak, but still up 15 20 percent from last year and that's after 20 years of gain..
more upside?
flat?
more downside?
-
The tax will have exemptions for skilled workers in the Ontario worker nominee program and refugees will be exempt. Anyone obtaining a permanent residency or Canadian citizenship within four years of purchasing their home would receive a full rebate of the NRST. Any international student enrolled full-time for at least two years would receive a full rebate. If you’ve worked in Ontario from the date of purchase of your home, you also get a full rebate.
The last one seems like a big loophole. Register an Ontario corp and hire yourself or/and spouse. Voila, you get a full rebate. What am I missing?
True, need to see the details.
But I think the rent control is going to remove quite a bit of demand.
-
Toronto up 33% in a year.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-house-price-1.4056093
Some area up 50% 60% in a year.
Even if u make 20% down, that's like 3x your money in a year.
The realtors said that's all supply side problem... well, when everyone want to get in to flip, the demand side will be too huge.
This will end when ppl realize house price cannot go up forever... then we will see the real user demand... and I doubt that would be pretty.
33% YoY is means that the price appreciation is actually speeding up. This is utterly insane.
If/when prices stop climbing you won't have normal real demand. You'll have depressed demand because everyone bought houses at ridiculous prices and are now broke many others will be unemployed and won't be able to afford homes even at the new prices. Then you'll also have huge supply because all of the "investors" either can't make the payments anymore or all of a sudden they're not so thrilled anymore with the negative carry.
Here's an interview with the Toronto mayor on Bloomberg:
Let me paraphrase "My heart weeps for the people of my city that can't afford a house anymore (most of them). We are looking at many tools. But we have no data, we are totally clueless about what's going on. So we shouldn't rush to do anything, we should just sit around and wait." Sure, we should sit around and to nothing. It's not like we have a critical situation on our hands. I wonder, when this thing goes tits up and we have a full blown crisis whether the response will be the same: sit around and do nothing.
Compare this with the Oakville mayor's interview on CBC that was posted here yesterday. That guy surprisingly had data (shocker!), called bullshit and Real Estate industry and was calling for action.
Gov from all levels are saying to other level, "hey, u fix it, not my problem", "we need to fix it so we don't harm anyone", "let's collect data",... eventually, this will blow up badly.
-
Not really going to help if the central bank keeps cutting rates..
who cares about the rate if they expect price will go up 10 20% in matter of months.
-
Can't believe ppl still saying supply is the main issue, it's demand from crazy speculation. I heard realtors are charging ppl tens of thousands to line up for new properties sale.
Ppl lined up and selling their assignment with 100ks of profit.
These arent normal demand.
-
Toronto up 33% in a year.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-house-price-1.4056093
Some area up 50% 60% in a year.
Even if u make 20% down, that's like 3x your money in a year.
The realtors said that's all supply side problem... well, when everyone want to get in to flip, the demand side will be too huge.
This will end when ppl realize house price cannot go up forever... then we will see the real user demand... and I doubt that would be pretty.
-
With a semi selling close to 1m I think there are two types of buyers.
Foreigner and ppl that already owned a house.... And they use home equity to finance.
The second type is going to cause house price to fall off the cliff when things reverse.
-
Toronto up 30% yoy
Last month, almost 10%
RIP Charlie
in Berkshire Hathaway
Posted
A true legend. RIP