hardincap

I heard her talk, and loved it. Buffett is an investing prodigy but he is also a human being, and understanding his human side allows one to see Buffett as a man rather than an investment machine. Munger & his family enjoyed the book, Buffett's own son Peter enjoyed the book and her talk, it looks like it's just the fanatic worshipers who take offense by what Alice has to say. Also re:criticism, munger freely criticizes ppl but makes exceptions for his close friends. He criticized graham for his strictly numerical approach, calling it asinine. Alice has said publicly that it was very difficult for her personally to speak about things unflattering to Buffett because she liked him and valued their friendship, but felt it was her duty as a biographer to talk about them honestly. No offense, but you've said a few things about Alice that are patently false in your last post. I'm curious how you explain those totally false characterizations you paint Alice with?

no, criticism is one thing, lack of insight is another. her psychology is monumentally ill-suited for someone like buffett & munger. might as well have asked cramer or some other fast money trader to have done his biography. therein lies whatever disappointment WEB or his admirers might have for Alice. Ive spoken with her on numerous occasions in person, have heard munger & his crew opine on her and her book, and i completely disagree with everything you said. id say shes similar to munger in many ways.

she was already a millionaire many times over, and contrary to your point, she took a pay CUT to write the book. i was confused at first by the antagonisms she attracts, but i've learned to explain it as the reflexive tendency to hate or belittle people who criticize a person you admire buffett has had his feelings hurt by schroeder, but i think he and munger still regard her highly character wise and for her intelligence

Awesome, wish I had done that!

technicals is just a small part of his analysis.

I think you're thinking gundlach of double line ?

http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120319.htm As of Friday, the S&P 500 was within 1% of its upper Bollinger band at virtually every horizon, including daily, weekly and monthly bands. The last time the S&P 500 reached a similar extreme was Friday April 29, 2011, when I titled the following Monday's comment Extreme Conditions and Typical Outcomes . I observed when the market has previously been overbought to extent, coupled with more general features of an "overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising yields syndrome", the average outcome has been particularly hostile: "Examining this set of instances, it's clear that overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields syndromes as extreme as we observe today are even more important for their extended implications than they are for market prospects over say, 3-6 months. Though there is a tendency toward abrupt market plunges, the initial market losses in 1972 and 2007 were recovered over a period of several months before second signal emerged, followed by a major market decline. Despite the variability in short-term outcomes, and even the tendency for the market to advance by several percent after the syndrome emerges, the overall implications are clearly negative on the basis of average return/risk outcomes." As it happened, April 29, 2011 turned out to mark the exact high of the S&P 500 for the year, and was followed by a steep intermediate market plunge. My impression is that despite the recent run of speculation the market has enjoyed - largely reflecting a reprieve in European debt concerns and what appears to be a drawing-forward of jobs into the first quarter due to unseasonably favorable weather - the extended implications of present market conditions remain decidedly negative.

11 months ago Doug Kass tweeted "repeating for emphasis - msft is a value trap". MSFT closed at $25.50. This one not working out so well either. That's pretty funny, because we had a shitload of MSFT call options too! More than we had in BAC or Wells...10% of the fund was in MSFT call options...and we bought them when MSFT was around $24.50 at a $20 strike! Unfortunately, in my infinite wisdom of averaging in and averaging out, we averaged out of alot of the MSFT call options over the last four months. That's the problem with no lockup...you're always making sure you mitigate risk and maintain adequate liquidity! If I had kept all of the MSFT options, we would be having the best quarter in our history...still a damn good quarter...but it would have been a blowout on par or better than Berkowitz's! And that's with OSTK being a real dog still and 40% cash in both funds. Our director Glen Rollins gave me a quote by Peter Lynch when I lamented this fact..."Make sure you don't cut the flowers and water the weeds!" Cheers! parsad, im interested in hearing your take of OSTK. what is the investment rationale there? congrats on the financial bets

cool thanks for the anecdote! i like chou more now :)

and why is he invested in RSH? :P

Francis is the kindest person I know in the financial industry, and that says alot because I know Prem, Mohnish and Tim McElvaine, and they are also some of the most generous people I know. But Francis is unique...very unique! If I were a captain in the investment industry, he is who you hire to be your right hand man. His honesty is beyond reproach! And he will never take credit for anything. Has anyone ever heard from Francis that the CDS idea was his? Nope! You heard it from Brian Bradstreet. We all know how talented the team is at Hamblin-Watsa, but all those principals there hold Francis in very high regard. That should tell you something. Everyone else can have Sprott, I'll take Francis. Cheers! so Prem's CDS idea was Chou's? thats interesting b/c prem is known as a macro guy, and chou value. does Chou make macro calls?

Parsad just curious how do you know Chou? I read that he started out as a locksmith and turned a small amount of money to 7 figs in few years.. Is that all accurate? It's an interesting story Any idea how many analysts he works with?

this thread makes me nervous :) i personally dont like to cheer until the profits are actually booked. i own truckloads of bac and im not cheering about it.. yet.

Congrats on sticking to your convictions and long term orientation. There is a very good lesson to be learned here, for all the skeptics who were lambasting the co and Lampert.

i bought in mid 30s and sold most yesterday. i do believe asset worth is much higher than the market thinks, but have you been to a sears store recently? i couldn't believe they were still in business... tons of housing related products and dead empty. its a rapidly deteriorating business and im just not sure how to account for that in the valuation... so i sold would love to hear valuegeek's take.

Christie took difficult, unpopular steps to try and right New Jersey's finances. He's earned some goodwill to discuss this issue publicly. Buffett chooses to use his wealth to farcically goad senators, who've never agreed that sending more money to Washington is the solution to the nation's problems, instead of writing a check to the Treasury. He knows they won't take him up on the offer, but he also knows they don't agree with his premise. So who is being a demagogue, again? im always surprised when people use the "if he wants others to help, he should jsut write a check himself!" argument. the point of policy is to achieve critical mass in order to make a difference in scale. i like christie but its pretty disappointing to see him say something so asinine

BRK. :) actually that probably makes more sense. switching my answer to brk now :)

I'm going to guess it was BAC. Anyone know?

Seriously, that creeped me out too. It makes me distrust Berkowitz a little more. The same type of distrust I'd have for a CEO that insists on furnishing his office with expensive furniture and decor.

How much is he up already this year? Several of his positions have already risen 30%+ YTD, with AIG and MBIA holding him back in the two funds respectively. Berkowitz has wittled the fund down to incredibly concentrated positions. If he gets any traction on AIG and MBIA, it would be easy to see the funds rise 30% plus in 2012. Cheers! Great, 30% rise. Now that leaves you "only" 17% more to go just to break even.

im puzzled by people saying things will turn out well for Berko. He lost over 32% last year. To get back to breakeven, his fund has to move up 47%. If you really believe his fund will perform that well, you should be buying it hand over fist.

The guy seems a bit deluded to me. He's done great with WFC in the past but to put 90% of your assets into financials is very asinine

scchin, that is alot of stock prices doing the analysis. do you believe the business value fell 30% in two days as has the stock price? why are you posting in a value investing forum? your temperament makes you a better fit for yahoo message boards. 2-3 year performance means little. even 5 years is hard to tell the good from the lucky. instead of focusing so much on the market price, maybe you should start looking more at the underlying business value. of course people are going to assign pessimistic valuations to a home appliances retailer at the very bottom of the housing cycle. what is it worth when housing recovers?

This says alot more about you than Eddie. Eddie has a 22%+ /yr record for 25 years or so. Are you seriously doubting his investment skills?

Maybe you should read his letters more carefully. He is trying to turnaround retail through technology. Every brick and mortar retail store is going to be challenged by online shopping in the coming years, and Lampert is trying to beat the pack. If it doesn't work, well, he can liquidate the company for higher than its market cap value today. People forget Sears is very sensitive to the housing market due to its reliance on appliance sales, and housing is in a depression. As housing recovers, so will Sears' bottom line and liquidation value.