hardincap

Yes Buffett simply meant to paint Welch as someone who acts with self serving bias, so viewers dont take what he says as the gospel truth

Yes and greenblatts magic formula would have yielded the same returns.

i wish consuelo had probed further, and not let berkowitz get away with face-saving remarks (e.g. "look at our 60 month record") that were clearly intended to escape discussion of his recent underperformance and mistakes. he makes zero mention of the fact that he bought tons of AIG stocks over $40/sh, on the faulty assumption that the government wouldnt sell below book value. he makes zero mention of the fact that he failed to foresee Bac's PTPP falling off a cliff from $45bn when he bought the stock to less than $30bn now. or the fact that the economic environment today is almost polar opposite of the 90s, when the greatest bull market in history of the us stock market started. his SHLD liquidation thesis might make him some profits down the line, but factoring in the length of his investment (over 5 years) it will clearly have been a mistake. See Buffett's berkshire letter on "biggest mistakes of my first 25 years", where he discusses the trap of buying into bad businesses on a liquidation thesis.

Read his sa articles. Terrible. Very hard to believe his (unaudited) track record when he was heavy long in Chinese frauds

I thought this book was terrible. Not very many insights, almost all surface and little substance. And why does Seymour have to list his top five movies, twice? Re-read Munger's Almanack instead.

Anyone know where to get old 10ks or valueline reports from the last 30-60 years? thanks

Anyone share the pain of needing a good way of getting news for specific stocks? E.g. If you're in a hurry and want to get a quick update on companies you follow, where do you get news from? I current use yahoo finance but wish there were some better way than to load yahoo finance X times for each company.

obviously market timing, but it may be justified considering what we're seeing in europe.

how was the meeting? anything worth noting? thanks.

strange.. i think he probably got wiped out on this one?

You are probably right. It goes to show weak Facebook's network effect/moat really is, if a couple of guys in San Francisco can take $500K and in two years create a company that is such a danger to FB that they need to pay $1 billion to eliminate the threat. It's fascinating that instagram was able to do easily infiltrate fbs business. I really think it kept Zuckerberg up at night, bc photo sharing is very core to fb and you can argue all other features are just bells and whistles on top of photos. He wanted to remove instagram from its social poker table and overpaid to do s

I know two people at Instagram and they are awesome. My guess is that Zuck knowingly overpaid because he regarded Instagram as a real threat to FB. Photo sharing is very core to FB and Instagram had what it took to potentially compete with FB.

why dont you tell alice what you think: http://aliceschroeder.com/blog/no-joy-mudville

i agree w/ the comment that a 5 year record is too short. i have similar returns and i still dont really know what im doing. li lu remarked that even with a 10 year record its hard to tell lucky from good. nevertheless he's worth watching, as his holdings clearly show he really is a value investor at heart

Hardincap, there is your answer. Bac has 12 per share of TBV and over 20 BV, once goodwill can be assumed ok. Rather than waiting for BAC to buy back shares, you can buy as many as you want at a price cheaper than BAC will ever get. you're missing my point. I WANT bac to buy back shares at these valuations alongside me.

JPM does not have billions in litigation coming up, and their business is not going through a complete restructuring. BAC's turnaround is more than half-way done, but they need to drive earnings forward while dealing with the overhang of litigation and loan loss provisions from the previous leadership group. The more solid the balance sheet, the more confidence the markets have. Look at what one stress test did for them! Can you imagine if they plow right through 11% in Tier 1 Common before their main competitors? They added over one whole percent in the 4th quarter, so the cash flow and assets are there to get the job done. Once they hit that, the stock will move up and then they can spend their cash flows growing their business. Cheers! JPM has billions in likely repurchase losses to be realized next few years. But yes, not quite as bad as countrywide. I think BAC can repurchase shares at $10 now, or wait till they boost basel iii this year and pay $15-20 one year from now. 50 to 100% difference!

tier 1 common ratio of 9.86% bac vs 10% jpm. jpm is doing better on basel iii tier 1, but not by a whole lot

i dont think its quite so black and white that they need to meet basel rules, which they are already ahead of schedule on, before doing buybacks. they can do buybacks and still meet basel rules ahead of time. JPM started huge buybacks, and i may be wrong but their capital ratios are similar to bac.

thanks. I wish they'd start repurchases earlier to take advantage of the beaten down stock price. I think at $10 its still very undervalued.

can anyone tell me if moynihan/bac has said anything about returning capital to shareholders this year through buybacks and dividend? Last I read, they were planning to do so in '13 after building up capital ratios for basel iii, but capital ratios are all pretty high right now so i dont see why they should wait until next year. also now that jpm has started returning capital bigtime im wondering if bac plans to follow suit soon.

Parsad, Buffett is my ultimate idol, as with Munger. He's definitely changed my life. I just think its important to learn from his very human mistakes as well as his stunning professional accomplishments. E.g. not nurturing relationships w/ family, wife, etc..

LOL i cant believe you actually think im alice. ;D

I think you just answered your question, unless there is a third son I dont know about? :) anyway, this comes down to two very different interpretations, lets just agree to disagree.

1) Would you say her notoriety as an analyst increased significantly after Buffett started to solely speak to her at Berkshire meetings, or would you say it decreased? Had you heard of Alice before that? Would you say her notoriety after writing "The Snowball" increased or decreased? 2) She took a pay cut to write the book. How much do you think she made from the book, or her speaking engagements after? That's like saying Buffett took a pay cut after leaving Graham-Newman to start the Buffett Partnerships. And by the way, its got nothing to do with the so-called "fanatics". The fanatics read the book and really none of us complained much about the gossipy side of the biography. It's the stuff after the book that has really left a bad taste for many people. No one is saying Buffett isn't flawed, but Alice seems to be intent on kicking him around when he gave her such access that most other authors could only dream of. Her job was to write the biography, warts and all...not pound the man with her fists every other article. Cheers! 1) well, of course it increased. that is a silly question. i never disputed that, just pointed out that she was far from a "no name" you characterize her as. 2) i think you'd be surprised. yes it gains her notoriety, but id bet that sticking w/ her wall st career would have been far more lucrative. i agree the article was on the critical side, but i dont understand how you come up with "pound the man with her fists every other article." most of the articles paint in positively, and she heaps praises on him in interviews. she did an hour long interview with a radio show host that i loved where she talked about how principles buffett used in his personal life could dramatically improve anyone in their lives, not just in investing. if she was as vicious as you paint her as, why would buffett's own son like her?

to point out the false characterizations specifically, 1. you say she was a no name analyst on wall st, when she was in fact ranked as a member of the Institutional Investor All-America Research Team for seven years and named the #1 Property-Casualty insurance analyst two years in a row. 2. you say she was made a millionaire many times over, when she actually took a pay CUT to write the book. she could have chosen to stay as MD at morgan stanley, which is far more lucrative than any publishing contract.