gaf63
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Posts posted by gaf63
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Tom Ward just sold 6 million shares at 5.86, and is now down to 21mil shares.
Not a great endorsement for SD
I own a small position and was looking at increasing it to a much larger %
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No other info available at moment
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Prem and everyone at Fairfax Financial, Congratulations on your 25th.
I look forward to seeing your vision and goals for FFH unfold over the next 25
Thanks for all your hard work and dedication, Gary
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Smazz, yes I live in central Calif. near the coast between Santa Cruz and Monterey
Back towards the foothills where we get less fog and more sun and heat
however this year has been very foggy even here and cool, all fruit is maturing late
Not a truly hot climate(hit 107F a few weeks back but that was abnormal), but Olives grow well here
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Walking/Hiking 4 miles+/day, reading, cooking and EATING(one reason why I walk a lot), growing pinot vines and hopefully making good wine, and growing Italian varietal olive trees for the oil, showing/teaching 2 grandsons about nature and the world around us to counteract the tv/video game mindlessness, Oh and to broxburnboy, you're not the oldest by a longshot
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I've been selling the last few weeks, and sold the last today over 26
hate to lose the div. , but agree that FFH should call them this Oct.
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Thanks for the link,
They have lowered the price, but still a steep $850/yr.
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Found the answer to my question on % of US treasuries of total bonds in the 2nd qtr. report
12%Canadian incl. provinces
15.4%US treasuries
19.4% corp
45% US states and munis
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Couple of things from conf. call, interest was the lowest since I've owned FFH, 2 questions only
The one from Cormark was about lowering costs considering the decline in premiums, Prem's answer was that the market can turn and we have to be ready, so we can expect higher cr's from Northbridge and the US cos. til the market hardens. Also he said that most companies CR is above 100 on the accident yr. and with low interest rates prices will have to raised at some point soon
FFH is now hedged against inflation, deflation and a fall in the market, with all these hedges I would think that earnings will be very volatile from here on out(as they were when the cd's were in place)
Also, there was a 36.4 mil loss from the Deepwater spill. Thought they got out of marine after Katrina
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Viking, thanks for the reply.
I'm curious as to FFH's % holdings of treasuries compared to total bonds. Anyone have an idea or where one could find out??
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From pg. 76 of the AR:
At December 31, 2009, the fair value of the company’s investment portfolio included approximately $11.5 billion of
fixed income securities which are subject to interest rate risk. Fluctuations in interest rates have a direct impact on the
market values of these securities. As interest rates rise, market values of fixed income portfolios decline, and vice
versa. The table below displays the potential impact on net earnings and other comprehensive income of market
value fluctuations caused by changes in interest rates on the company’s fixed income portfolio based on parallel
200 basis point shifts in interest rates up and down, in 100 basis point increments. This analysis was performed on
each security individually. Given the current economic and interest rate environment, the company believes a
200 basis point shift to be reasonably possible.
December 31, 2009 Hypothetical $ change
effect on:
200 basis point increase 9,689.3 (448.6) (752.3) (15.5)
100 basis point increase 10,535.9 (241.5) (389.4) (8.1)
No change 11,468.4 – – –
100 basis point decrease 12,434.0 268.9 384.1 8.4
200 basis point decrease 13,521.5 585.7 806.0 17.9
7 yr. treasury declined .86 , 10 yr.- .87 in the qtr. ,
on total bond portfolio the value increase would be 793 mil
If you totally exclude the muni portfolio, the increase would be 457 mil
Dont know how much the equity portfolio declined after hedges , but I would
think that net gains were flat to positive
Viking , how much did you allow for bond gains in your net gain calculation??
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SSW and Wang are gearing up to add another 20-30 ships to their fleet "if" the shipyards meet his requirements.
Interesting article from the Lloyd's List
http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/sector/containers/article341131.ece
(If you cant access article from Lloyd's List, I can post full article)
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Anyone have thoughts or ideas on ORHpA trading above 25.50/sh??
I believe that FFH will call these pfd's in Oct., and have sold most of my position at these prices.
Am I missing something???
GAF
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According to the site you posted Ericopoly, there will be an increase in cost basis of $1.3 mil
For purposes of this subsection -
(A) In general
The basis increase under this subsection for any property is
the portion of the aggregate basis increase which is allocated
to the property pursuant to this section.
(B) Aggregate basis increase
In the case of any estate, the aggregate basis increase under
this subsection is $1,300,000.
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More info on the rise of ontainer ship rates , with shortage of ships and containers mentioned
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=108265&Itemid=79
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Looks like SSW negotiated a good deal on the 4250 from Zhejaing. Diana shipping just paid $45 mil for 2 3400's compared to SSW's price of $43 mil for the 4250
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Yes , a good development , the cost was 57% of the other 4250 ships purchased from Zhejiang and 60% financed by equity at 5%.
Another positive development was a further reduction of their equity needs to $125 mil and a delay in timing. Another sale/ lease deal
should lower their equity needs below $100 mil.
From the 6-K:
We currently have $1.1 billion available under our credit and lease facilities to fund our $1.3 billion newbuilding program. To fund the remainder, we will need to issue approximately $125 million in common or other equity and/or other forms of capital over the period from the third quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2012. This is a reduction from our previously stated equity capital needs of $140 million and a deferral of the period from the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2012. The state of the global financial markets and economic conditions may adversely impact our ability to issue additional equity at prices that will not be dilutive to our existing shareholders or preclude us from issuing equity at all. We will continue to actively pursue alternatives that will allow us to defer or eliminate some or all of our current equity needs.
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Wondered about Oldye's comment also. However it is backed up by the annual energy outlook,
Overall, natural gas consumption grows by about 0.2
percent per year from 2008 to 2035, despite declines
of about 1.5 percent per year from 2008 through 2014,
when coal-fired power plants now under construction
or planned begin operation, and Federal tax credits
and State RPS programs spur additions of new elec-
tricity generation capacity fired by renewable fuels.
Coal consumption increases by 0.4 percent per year in
the Reference case. Several coal-fired power plants,
with combined capacity totaling 15.6 gigawatts, are
planned to come on line by 2012. More coal is
consumed for heat and power in the CTL process, off-
setting declines in coal consumption for coking and
other industrial uses.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/trend_2.pdf
Here is a very detailed report on the Natural gas market,
http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/st-mkt-ovr/som-rpt-2009.pdf
And, also in this mammoth report, they highlight why NG in heavy trucks will be a long time coming:
there is no infrastructure , and the outlays for NG fuel systems in trucks are very expensive,
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Ok , Only if you believe FFH wont call them in Oct. would one buy over $25. I think they will, there is cheaper money available.
Now , I would be happy if they never called , but dont think that will happen
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Great article , thanks
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They are callable this yr., Oct. 20, I believe , same day as div. payout
Also the volume has been higher than usual - noticed the volume increase right after last div.
cost to FFH would be the same either way , little more than a $1 in div., to $1 more for early call price
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Sandridge 2q results
in General Discussion
Posted
Only a small portion of the shares were held by the trust, from what I gathered from the SEC filing
However he still owns 5% of shares outstanding which is nothing to sneeze at, just a worrisome trend
As to SD,I like that they are adding to their oil production at low cost, but are spending more than they are making at current prices
They will have a $400 mil cash burn next yr, and must sell the wolfberry and bonespring acreage to maintain the $875 mil capex.
If they reach their goal of 40000 bpd next yr. they will still need more cash to maintain level of capex.
So they will need more sales or more debt or more dilution of shareholders, or a cutback in capex, or higher oil and gas prices
SD has capable people running it, great reserves that are undervalued on the balance sheet, low cost production, and Prem and FFH are investors in the co. My worries are the level of debt and the time frame of bringing on production to pay down this debt. At my present level of investment I am comfortable with these risks. But am unable to pull the trigger on a larger investment at moment and the CEO selling over 20% of his shares gives me pause.