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Showing content with the highest reputation on 12/06/2024 in all areas

  1. Aside from the continuous and amazing break downs and analysis in Fairfax. One of Vikings most important points to not overlook is the change in investment style of Fairfax from “turn around” to “value” to “quality”, and how investors who identify as pure value really need to pay attention. This is something I have been breaking out of over the years. We have all had investments that have transitioned through the various investment styles over time,. right before your eyes you watch multiples expand and you can’t imagine buying more shares at this new re-rated market quotation. This is what has been happening with Fairfax as Mr. Market gains confidence in the consistency of earnings, begins to have more “proper” historical earnings to go off with each passing successful quarter - and realizes that Fairfax is trading to “cheap”. Fairfax has low institutional ownership compared to companies of its size trading on the market, wether it gets added to the TSX 60 or not (the 60 add another long term tailwind) the consistency, growth and quality in the operating earnings stream will/should continue to generate the type of numbers that will have institutional investors who control many billions look at its previous say 5 year track record, look at its weight in the index, realize they are very underweight this stock, and the “demand” for shares are very likely to increase. These institutions will have to buy from someone to get the exposure. We are in the midst of creating the new “historical” track record institutions will use and build into models, imo. Of course, many people have been hesitant, skeptic, nervous and even extremely pessimistic about Fairfax, and some peoples negative hopes and dreams are finally thrash now as the company continues to execute well and shut the haters out. Without a spotty track record, shares would have spiked much faster. So the net acquires over the years and more so recent years should be thankful really. As the thesis proved correct and you have been able to buy at a still cheap valuation. To me even at this date to establish an “exit price” or “exit multiple” is too simplistic and.. even early. The thing is, we all know once the market gets something into its teeth the re rating of shares can be extremely large. If the market decides to re rate this a bit faster then you’ll never catch the share price… (then you might get the chance to come here and say “okay now its frothy”). It’s been hard enough to keep pace the past couple of years however. With important earnings stream locked in, the near term results and investment thesis is of course an extremely good bet going into 2025/26. No guarantees of course, as everyone has heard - but good enough odds for me. It is not only value that is important - but value/growth/quality all in one package, and it’s a rare combination.
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