article on CAPE adjustments

[racemize]

article discusses earnings changes and possibility of new plateau for CAPE.  Seems a little optimistic, but interesting:

 

http://philosophicaleconomics.wordpress.com/2013/12/13/shiller/

[randomep]

article discusses earnings changes and possibility of new plateau for CAPE.  Seems a little optimistic, but interesting:

 

http://philosophicaleconomics.wordpress.com/2013/12/13/shiller/

 

Wonderful article, thanks!

 

BTW do you agree? even a little bit?

[racemize]

Well, the change in regime is very interesting--however, it seems hard to really pinpoint the reasons for it. Certainly, I could see accounting changes having a part in it, but I tend to think the lack of war idea is probably not that big of factor.  I'll also be interested to see how the next 20 or so years go, so I mostly withhold judgement until then.

[randomep]

 

I also saw another article that talks about how as the world is more developed and has more capital, returns will naturally go down, so the CAPE will fall over time.

 

But ya let's see how it goes twenty years from now...... no sense talking about it before then.....

[racemize]

 

I also saw another article that talks about how as the world is more developed and has more capital, returns will naturally go down, so the CAPE will fall over time.

 

But ya let's see how it goes twenty years from now...... no sense talking about it before then.....

 

Similar type of comments coming from BAM, where they think the sheer capital inflows will have to go someplace, and in their theory, real estate/real assets.  Same reasoning might drive down yields.