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Schrödinger's consumer confidence?


Liberty
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May 25: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-25/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-climbs-to-highest-since-2007.html

 

May 29: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-29/consumer-confidence-in-u-s-fell-in-may-to-four-month-low.html

 

???

 

(I know it's not the same survey, but it was funny to see both headlines in a row, and it does show how hard it is to try to predict macro based on these kinds of things)

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No kidding

 

Have a look at the housing headlines.  Las Vegas bldg boom, house prices down, house prices up in 20 cities, rent to housing ratios back to 98-2000 levels....

 

Just way too many surveys and bad information.  Never mind that everything everyone reacts to this week will be revised in 3 weeks. 

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Just way too many surveys and bad information.  Never mind that everything everyone reacts to this week will be revised in 3 weeks.

 

That's really the root of it: The market seems to have zero memory. I don't know how much of this is encouraged by the financial media - they don't care, they just want to fill airtime - and how much is just fundamental human bias, but it's really impressive and sometimes kind of depressing.

 

But as Ben Graham would say, the thing to do is to either ignore it or take advantage of it, not be guided by it.

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