twacowfca Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 BRK's 2012 10Q1 reports BV is $175,997B up from $164,850B EOY :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 I've got it at 109k per A share and 72.69 per B share. 1.1x values are 199,900 and 79.95 respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 I've got it at 109k per A share and 72.69 per B share. 1.1x values are 199,900 and 79.95 respectively. Did you add in the noncontrolling interests? Or just the NAV per BRK shareholders? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Quite sure he added the noncontr interests too. Without BV per A share is something of $106,650. Could be $107,000 now which makes buybacks possible from +- $118,000 and lower! I've seen a post about being 50 and even 90% in cash. Guess it's a preference but I'd at least put a part of it in BRK at current prices. 90% cash rarely makes sense and even when it does your timing could be of a couple of years in the worst case. With BRK you get the upside to IV if we don't get a crash and in the worst case you sell at a 20-30% loss only to pick up lesser quality that will multiple your money over time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 I've got it at 109k per A share and 72.69 per B share. 1.1x values are 199,900 and 79.95 respectively. Did you add in the noncontrolling interests? Or just the NAV per BRK shareholders? I may have messed it up, I did it really fast at the time. I think I included noncontrolling interests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roundball100 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 I guess the multiplication by 1500 gives 119,925. -pvo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Quite sure he added the noncontr interests too. Without BV per A share is something of $106,650. Could be $107,000 now which makes buybacks possible from +- $118,000 and lower! I've seen a post about being 50 and even 90% in cash. Guess it's a preference but I'd at least put a part of it in BRK at current prices. 90% cash rarely makes sense and even when it does your timing could be of a couple of years in the worst case. With BRK you get the upside to IV if we don't get a crash and in the worst case you sell at a 20-30% loss only to pick up lesser quality that will multiple your money over time! I think that's right. BRK closed about 3% above the threshold for "aggressive" buybacks. That's not a guaranteed floor, but close. If the market got ugly, it might take a little while to get back to 110% of BV, but probably not too long. BRK's future downside volatility at this price is likely about as low as any stock could be. Why wouldn't any fund manager with or without a value bent want to own as much of BRK as possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woltac Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 If buying under 1.1 times book is important to you, sell the Dec12 $80 puts at $4.30 (Friday's close) and either have BRKB put to you at a cost of $76.64 or earn 9.6% annualized on the money you tie up until December. Not a bad result either way. Of course if BRKB is substantially below $76.64 or substantially above $85.24 you will not be a happy camper. Crystal ball anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvesting101 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Seems to be trading very close or may be below 1.1x book value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zarley Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Seems to be trading very close or may be below 1.1x book value. BRK.a buyback at around 117,260 with price at 119,750 (~2% above buyback) I've got the BRK.b buyback price at around $78.17, so it's a little bit above that right now at $79.25 (~1.4% above buyback). Q1 BRK shareholder equity = 175,997 A equivalent shares = 1.651 BV/A share = $106,600 BV/B share = $71.07 BV/A * 1.1 = $117,260 BV/B * 1.1 = $78.17 While I don't think the estimated buyback price is a real floor (Buffett isn't obligated to buy), I don't really see it getting significantly below that level. I agree that the potential downside is somewhat limited at this point. A market meltdown and/or significant economic downturn would shrink BV, so it's not really a one-way ticket to the upside. But, I'd expect BRK to fare better than most in that kind of scenario. I added a small amount to BRK this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Quite sure he added the noncontr interests too. Without BV per A share is something of $106,650. Could be $107,000 now which makes buybacks possible from +- $118,000 and lower! I've seen a post about being 50 and even 90% in cash. Guess it's a preference but I'd at least put a part of it in BRK at current prices. 90% cash rarely makes sense and even when it does your timing could be of a couple of years in the worst case. With BRK you get the upside to IV if we don't get a crash and in the worst case you sell at a 20-30% loss only to pick up lesser quality that will multiple your money over time! Does the 1.1x cutoff include the noncontrolling interests or no? I would think not, but I'm no expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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