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ANDY KILPATRICK HAS HIS OWN WEB SITE


marlinls
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Charlie Munger once told the story at a Wesco Meeting, how Andy Kilpatrick bought Berkshire on margin and made a lot of money and Charlie thought that that was a very smart investment from Andy  ;)

 

Unfortunately, Andy reportedly got margin calls when Berkshire took a dive in 1999 -  2000.  He didn't panic, unlike most people, but sold some stock to meet the margin calls.  He recovered after Warren announced in 2000 that he would repurchase stock at those depressed prices.

 

Today, with Berkshire even more a bargain than in 2000 and Warren once again willing to repurchase Berkshire's stock near the current price, the risk of using margin is very low, but not zero.  :)

 

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Today, with Berkshire even more a bargain than in 2000 and Warren once again willing to repurchase Berkshire's stock near the current price, the risk of using margin is very low, but not zero.  :)

 

the risk of using margin is never very low in a deleveraging world & a shiller PE of 23x sp500 earnings    :(

 

but if you're gonna use margin then brk is one of your better bets.

 

how's your monetary base charts looking these days, btw?

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"Today, with Berkshire even more a bargain than in 2000 and Warren once again willing to repurchase Berkshire's stock near the current price..."

 

perhaps after Fidelity have their investor day with Warren they can value the stock better  ;D

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Today, with Berkshire even more a bargain than in 2000 and Warren once again willing to repurchase Berkshire's stock near the current price, the risk of using margin is very low, but not zero.  :)

 

the risk of using margin is never very low in a deleveraging world & a shiller PE of 23x sp500 earnings    :(

 

but if you're gonna use margin then brk is one of your better bets.

 

how's your monetary base charts looking these days, btw?

 

 

The correlation between change in the monetary base (WSBASE) and the S&P 500 is still very high, but the change in WSBASE during the last several months no longer has lead the change in the S&P 500. Instead, the change in the S&P 500 has been leading the change in the WSBASE by a few weeks. This seems to make no sense.  It's like saying that inflation causes an increase in the money supply. 

 

However, there is a perfectly good reason for this upside down behavior.  The FED in the person of its chairman, Ben Bernanke, has been telegraphing in advance exactly what it's going to do in the near future, as with QE2, and more recently with 'twist' and the stated intention to try to keep interest rates ultra low for the next several months.  Thus, Mr. Market in his wisdom of  the crowd has been correctly anticipating what's going to happen with the application of the grease that lubricates his forward motion.

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