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Great Call Moore


bmichaud
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Moore, wonderful call on the market, government support and LTRO. I'm literally in shock at the rally in Euro gov't bonds in the face of a deteriorating economy - the austerity measures being instituted over there will not work regardless of LTRO, but I guess in the short-run market perception is the most important factor....

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Moore, wonderful call on the market, government support and LTRO. I'm literally in shock at the rally in Euro gov't bonds in the face of a deteriorating economy - the austerity measures being instituted over there will not work regardless of LTRO, but I guess in the short-run market perception is the most important factor....

 

The rally in EURO gov bonds was expected because the ECB is extending credit to insolvent banks by allowing them to post their high yielding sovereign debt as collateral to receive low interest ECB loans

 

. . .  That can then be used to buy more high yielding bad sovereign debt.  . . .  Repeat.    :o

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Moore, wonderful call on the market, government support and LTRO. I'm literally in shock at the rally in Euro gov't bonds in the face of a deteriorating economy - the austerity measures being instituted over there will not work regardless of LTRO, but I guess in the short-run market perception is the most important factor....

 

The rally in EURO gov bonds was expected because the ECB is extending credit to bankrupt banks by allowing them to post their high yielding sovereign debt as collateral to receive low interest ECB loans

 

. . .  That can then be used to buy more high yielding bad sovereign debt.  . . .  Repeat.    :o

 

Doesnt make sense to me since non-ECB funding has dried up and Euro banks have one trillion euros coming due in the next year. How do they refi that funding while simultaneously buying additional SD? Perhaps that is happening on the short end while banks wait to refi, but for long term SD? ....

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LTRO allows the highly levered banks to move onto super leverage. It is profitable until the bonds they buy drop in value. Politicians seeing interest rates drop because of temporary increased demand for sovereign bonds will be less willing to balance their budgets eroding confidence confidence of the bondholders. The increased ECB balance sheet will continue to climb from above 25% GDP increasing fears of future inflation from the money printing and reducing the perceived likelihood that the ECB will be capable of future bailouts eroding bondholder confidence further.

 

Eventually the confidence tips over into the waterfall event probably triggered by a default. My guess is Hungary. Sovereign defaults occur in waves so the interest rate every sovereign pays will spike. The super leverage means even small bond losses will render weakened banks crippled and render the ECB insolvent.

 

When I worked on a macroeconomic model looking at Europe, when every economy slowed at the same time due to an increase in the oil price there was an extra hit to growth of -2% as the slowing exports caused slowing imports in a vicious circle. Aren't we facing that oil price spike today? Further, the desperate governments are relying on tax increases as much as spending cuts where the negative multiplier is likely 2.5 to 3 so we already have a huge drag on growth. The only hope is to copy President Harding and shrink the government sector, reduce taxes, allow bankruptcies, let the private sector grow and restore confidence. This will not happen with ESM which like the ESF in the US will likely trigger a massive expansion of the state.

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Thanks bmichaud, this is turning out to be a monster year here for us up nearly 20% YTD in the value funds and more than making up for the slight loss in 2011.

 

Remember, in a fiat money system the government will always resort to printing money, some way somehow.

 

The LTRO is just a transmission mechanism for the ECB.

 

Word on the street here is that RISK IS BACK ON. Fundamentals still look great to me, especially in the resource space.

 

 

 

 

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