BargainValueHunter Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 If you don't mind owning the stock at much lower prices then SHLD is one of the best stocks in the market for selling puts when it has its occasional collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 If you don't mind owning the stock at much lower prices then SHLD is one of the best stocks in the market for selling puts when it has its occasional collapse. Could you give an example ie which "put" would you like the best today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 SHLD getting very attractive again. This appears to be the perfect "value trading" stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matson125 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I really hope they start buying back shares again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I really hope they start buying back shares again! I hope they keep monetizing stores. I also hope they sell Lands' End -- to close after the holiday season, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
compoundinglife Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 SHLD getting very attractive again. This appears to be the perfect "value trading" stock. Yup. Makes me wish I had sold my $30 shares when they hit $80 so I could buy even more now. Been doing some buying under $50 over the past week. Whenever I listen to analysts and media it just reinforces in my mind how misunderstood this stock is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 SHLD getting very attractive again. This appears to be the perfect "value trading" stock. Except for the fact that their actual business is pretty awful. I wish they'd complete dump K-Mart and try to liquidate some of the real estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 SHLD getting very attractive again. This appears to be the perfect "value trading" stock. Except for the fact that their actual business is pretty awful. I wish they'd complete dump K-Mart and try to liquidate some of the real estate. So not attractive at this price? Do you own SHLD? If so, why? Sorry for all the questions, but I'm trying to understand your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShahKhezri Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I actually spent quite a bit of time on it this past weekend. I'm curious, where do you think they will raise that last $500MM? another warrant/spinoff? I was going to look over more material this coming weekend before writing about it, but the inventory/pension/working capital improvements are pretty impressive. Also, trying to connect the dots on EL and the SHLD debt exposure. He's pretty much all in on this, equity, debt and the pension exposure to SHLD debt. I think Domestic Sears has a real shot at having -1% to 1% comps this quarter. It's 1 quarter I know and the K-Mart stores should just turn into Dollar Stores. The Barclay's analyst report was really confusing, basically they stated..."this was the second time the company held a conference call and we expected an announcement but we were dissapointed and the street was as well and that's why they punished the stock." I'm paraphrasing. I really liked the CC, they are definitely more open. My only exposure at this point is through FAAFX, but that may change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest rimm_never_sleeps Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I really hope they start buying back shares again! doubt it. with the bonds way under par, they should buy back their debt first. buying back stock would further damage shld credit rating. don't forget to factor in the rights offering and spin offs in calculating the current value of shld. it's not the same as when it was last in the $40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest rimm_never_sleeps Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I actually spent quite a bit of time on it this past weekend. I'm curious, where do you think they will raise that last $500MM? another warrant/spinoff? I was going to look over more material this coming weekend before writing about it, but the inventory/pension/working capital improvements are pretty impressive. Also, trying to connect the dots on EL and the SHLD debt exposure. He's pretty much all in on this, equity, debt and the pension exposure to SHLD debt. I think Domestic Sears has a real shot at having -1% to 1% comps this quarter. It's 1 quarter I know and the K-Mart stores should just turn into Dollar Stores. The Barclay's analyst report was really confusing, basically they stated..."this was the second time the company held a conference call and we expected an announcement but we were dissapointed and the street was as well and that's why they punished the stock." I'm paraphrasing. I really liked the CC, they are definitely more open. My only exposure at this point is through FAAFX, but that may change. investors were hoping for more financial engineering, such as sales of real estate, store closings. investors are not nearly as patient for this all to play out as ESL is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I hold small stake. Cheap valuation=selling for EV of less than its inventory value. As noted they have a lot of other assets that have value Risks for SHLD being a value trap: i. underlying business (retail) in secular decline i.e nobody expects it to compete successfully against Walmart, Target, Dollar store etc ii they have quite a bit of liabilities These are well known + probably priced in. There is comfort in knowing that ESL, Fairholme are in big vs the large short position---would not take much to see volatility on the upside. Again value could just continue to erode away, with market value following. For those with knowledge of options this may be a good place to make your bet. I am going to continue to hold common stock + see how things work out. Look forward to here from others about SHLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 SHLD getting very attractive again. This appears to be the perfect "value trading" stock. Except for the fact that their actual business is pretty awful. I wish they'd complete dump K-Mart and try to liquidate some of the real estate. Don't own any currently. My point is/was that a 'perfect value trading stock' would be a strong business at a cheap price. Re-reading txlaw's post, I think I missed the word trading. In that case, yeah, SHLD does seem to trade in a consistent range. There are a lot of risks to the underlying business though. And regarding the 2nd part of my post, I have some faith in the Sears Business (and portfolio or brands), but think K-Mart is a dead business not worth keeping. I would like SHLD more as a much leaner company with a focus on its strong brands and what I view as its core business - tools, hardware & appliances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 SHLD getting very attractive again. This appears to be the perfect "value trading" stock. Except for the fact that their actual business is pretty awful. I wish they'd complete dump K-Mart and try to liquidate some of the real estate. Don't own any currently. My point is/was that a 'perfect value trading stock' would be a strong business at a cheap price. Re-reading txlaw's post, I think I missed the word trading. In that case, yeah, SHLD does seem to trade in a consistent range. There are a lot of risks to the underlying business though. And regarding the 2nd part of my post, I have some faith in the Sears Business (and portfolio or brands), but think K-Mart is a dead business not worth keeping. I would like SHLD more as a much leaner company with a focus on its strong brands and what I view as its core business - tools, hardware & appliances. Yes, when I referred to "value trading stock", I was referring to the ability for investors to buy at $40, sell at $80, buy at $40, sell at $80, etc. Must be a function of the short interest on such a small percentage of non-ESL/Fairholme shares. I would agree that K-Mart should really be sold in its entirety -- they should be Walmarts or Costcos or Dollar Stores or something else. And I agree with focus on SHLD's core biz of tools, hardware, and appliances. That's why I want them to sell Land's End and close more stores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nsa122 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 If you buy at $40 and sell at $80, presumably you are confident the business is worth something between those two numbers? I could see that strategy if it was a steady business earning $5 per share year in and year out, but I don't have the same confidence with SHLD. How can you so precisely value SHLD? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 If you buy at $40 and sell at $80, presumably you are confident the business is worth something between those two numbers? I could see that strategy if it was a steady business earning $5 per share year in and year out, but I don't have the same confidence with SHLD. How can you so precisely value SHLD? Thanks. It would be way too difficult to go into a detailed analysis of SHLD in one post, but if you look at all the posts in this thread, as well as other SHLD-related posts (just do a search for SHLD), you'll see that most of us are focused on a liquidation/run-off analysis. For the asset side, you should focus on inventory, real estate (both owned and leased), IP (think KCD IP), and other intangibles (existing customer base and value to potential acquirors). Essentially, you can think of SHLD as two parts: an asset-lite side and a runoff/liquidation side that will generate capital that can be deployed by ESL over time. This is a complicated investment for sure. Probably should read everything that Berkowitz has said on Sears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrankArabia Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 i read the annual report and what berkowitz said....essentially, Sears its a cigar butt with undervalued real estate assets. they're trying to improve profits but can't really gain traction. They have a bunch of undervalued real estate that is likely worth more than stated gaap results.......at the end of the day, i still see profits from sears to be the most important driver and I have very little confidence on that front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 People have been talking about their 'undervalued' real estate assets for years. The value comes from actually selling the real estate. The real question is whether there are buyers for all these buildings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrankArabia Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 yupe they will need buyers.....essentially Sears may be better liquidated...problem is, who needs that much space? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 If you don't mind owning the stock at much lower prices then SHLD is one of the best stocks in the market for selling puts when it has its occasional collapse. Could you give an example ie which "put" would you like the best today Sorry...just saw this. ...Couple of weeks ago the ~$42 DEC12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Sears wants to build new retail, housing at St. Paul site http://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/morning_roundup/2013/01/sears-wants-to-build-new-retail.html?ana=yfcpc I would love to see more projects like this---get away from retail + competing against Target, Walmart etc---rent to them instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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