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EGD Writeup


Baoxiaodao
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Been looking at this one but low on cash, I it as a way to play mining.

 

Myth465,

 

I wouldn't worry about too much about the cash balance given Energold's significant financial flexibility (liquid excess assets, highly variable cost structure, etc.) and the waterfall of cash flow that's about to hit the bottom line from their existing/fully deployed asset base. At this point internal cash generation should be more than sufficient to fund growth going forward.

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Been looking at this one but low on cash, I it as a way to play mining.

 

Myth, I think you meant you were low on cash right?

 

I do not think this stock is only about playing mining. The environmental issues are very real in any exploration activities. I once watched something on the TV about this. The locals gave concessions to the companies that promised good prospects, but only were disappointed when juniors found nothing and left a mess to them. Those activities are very pollutive and it will take years if not decades to clean it up. When we read a junior company's presentation on how many meters it has drilled over a year, have we ever thought about the influences on those local poor people? Local governments are very eager to sell the rights and let the common people bear the consequences. Is it fair? Definitely not. Can they do anything about it? Well, no companies want uncooperative local residents.

 

I never thought the way AAOI did when he said the organizational structure running man-portable is different from running traditional rigs. I do not know if he is right, but from experience, I think this makes sense. For any incumbent, there are always conflicts of interest preventing them from developing new technologies or adopting new equipments. However, I am also fully aware of the fact that EGD will not become a first-class franchise since this industry is very competitive. For first class, I meant to have a strong brand(or exclusive technology) AND lowest cost(economies of scale). Most of the time, one of those contributes will make your efforts worthwhile.

 

A lot of work to do. Again, thanks AAOI to bring such a detailed account of EGD to get me start with. I have been looking at this on and off for a year and finally decided to take a hard look of this.

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Been looking at this one but low on cash, I it as a way to play mining.

 

Myth, I think you meant you were low on cash right?

 

I do not think this stock is only about playing mining. The environmental issues are very real in any exploration activities. I once watched something on the TV about this. The locals gave concessions to the companies that promised good prospects, but only were disappointed when juniors found nothing and left a mess to them. Those activities are very pollutive and it will take years if not decades to clean it up. When we read a junior company's presentation on how many meters it has drilled over a year, have we ever thought about the influences on those local poor people? Local governments are very eager to sell the rights and let the common people bear the consequences. Is it fair? Definitely not. Can they do anything about it? Well, no companies want uncooperative local residents.

 

I never thought the way AAOI did when he said the organizational structure running man-portable is different from running traditional rigs. I do not know if he is right, but from experience, I think this makes sense. For any incumbent, there are always conflicts of interest preventing them from developing new technologies or adopting new equipments. However, I am also fully aware of the fact that EGD will not become a first-class franchise since this industry is very competitive. For first class, I meant to have a strong brand(or exclusive technology) AND lowest cost(economies of scale). Most of the time, one of those contributes will make your efforts worthwhile.

 

A lot of work to do. Again, thanks AAOI to bring such a detailed account of EGD to get me start with. I have been looking at this on and off for a year and finally decided to take a hard look of this.

 

Baoxiadoa, thanks and I'm glad I could help get you started. As far as the first-class franchise issue above, I think we are just having a semantics issue here (just trying to point out that I believe Energold will be the premier frontier drilling franchise within the space for a long, long time to come, not necessarily that its in the same league as a KO for instance).

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  • 1 month later...

A few thoughts on the spectacular quarter (its only just beginning :))...

 

Revenue per meter increased 8.3% sequentially, from $169 to $183. This resulted in an 8% gross margin expansion in mineral drilling, from 28% to 36%. This is much further along than I was expecting. 40% gross margins should be attainable at $190/meter pricing (assuming all of pricing gains continue to fall to bottom line). My guess is that they will be there by year end. I don’t know exactly what the mix shift is or what the breakdown of revenue per meter is when looking at brownfield vs frontier, but +40% gross margins by this time next year seems very attainable.

 

Tough to get a feel on what Dando and Bertram will be contributing on a full year basis and we don’t have financials to see the SG&A or cash flows, but I think it is safe to assume that this is trading below 5x 2012 earnings using some commentary from the last conference call. Bottom line is that this business remains crazy/unsustainably cheap all things considered.

 

The numbers below were calculated a little earlier today when the stock was up 14%. 

 

Valuation - Normalization of Existing Asset Base

Rig Count                                    129

Meters Per Rig                              6,500

Average Revenue Per Meter          $190.0

Total Revenues (MM)                    $159.3

Cost of Drilling                              $95.6

Gross Profit                                  $63.7

Dando Gross Profit Est                  $3.8

Bertram Gross Profit Est              $13.5

S,G&A                                          $20.0

Operating Income                        $61.0

Taxes                                          $20.1

Net Income                                  $40.9

 

Shares Outstanding (MMM)            48

Current Price                                $4.25

Market Cap                                    204.00

Debt                                            $10.0

Unadjusted Enterprise Value          $214.0

 

Less:

Cash                                            $25.5

Impact Silver Stake                      $12.0

Adjusted Enterprise Value              $176.5

 

EV / NI                                          4.32x

EV / Operating Income                  2.89x

 

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AAOI, thanks a lot for the update. I do not argue with any of your facts or numbers. A very large percent of my asset has already committed to a similar business in Germany so it is hard for me to make the decision to have more exposure to the same sector(begging for persuasion :P). A few questions and comments:

 

1. How do you get comfortable with the massive dilution in the previous years? How does management intend to deal with this in the future? How did the management distribute those options, i.e. give it to themselves or to the employees?

2. One of my rules to look at investments is to calculate ROIC using magic formula. EGD has a unspectacular ROIC but I can see it is changing because of the pricing power. But as with most good business, there is a limit where the gross margin can go. And to all have experience in home runs, it normally requires a combination of rapid revenue growth and expanding margin. My questions, how far do you think EGD will be able to push the price since it is already 190/meter?

 

Fan

 

 

A few thoughts on the spectacular quarter (its only just beginning :))...

 

Revenue per meter increased 8.3% sequentially, from $169 to $183. This resulted in an 8% gross margin expansion in mineral drilling, from 28% to 36%. This is much further along than I was expecting. 40% gross margins should be attainable at $190/meter pricing (assuming all of pricing gains continue to fall to bottom line). My guess is that they will be there by year end. I don’t know exactly what the mix shift is or what the breakdown of revenue per meter is when looking at brownfield vs frontier, but +40% gross margins by this time next year seems very attainable.

 

Tough to get a feel on what Dando and Bertram will be contributing on a full year basis and we don’t have financials to see the SG&A or cash flows, but I think it is safe to assume that this is trading below 5x 2012 earnings using some commentary from the last conference call. Bottom line is that this business remains crazy/unsustainably cheap all things considered.

 

The numbers below were calculated a little earlier today when the stock was up 14%. 

 

Valuation - Normalization of Existing Asset Base

Rig Count                                    129

Meters Per Rig                              6,500

Average Revenue Per Meter          $190.0

Total Revenues (MM)                    $159.3

Cost of Drilling                              $95.6

Gross Profit                                  $63.7

Dando Gross Profit Est                  $3.8

Bertram Gross Profit Est              $13.5

S,G&A                                          $20.0

Operating Income                        $61.0

Taxes                                          $20.1

Net Income                                  $40.9

 

Shares Outstanding (MMM)            48

Current Price                                $4.25

Market Cap                                    204.00

Debt                                            $10.0

Unadjusted Enterprise Value          $214.0

 

Less:

Cash                                            $25.5

Impact Silver Stake                      $12.0

Adjusted Enterprise Value              $176.5

 

EV / NI                                          4.32x

EV / Operating Income                  2.89x

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I hear you regarding the dilution fears but one needs to keep in mind that over the period in question the rig count/share grew 3x faster so I don't believe the "dilution" was ultimately dilutive if you follow me as per share value grew faster. For various reasons outlined in the write-up and in the comment section of the blog (which is currently being fixed due to a technical issue) I don't believe any additional equity raises will be necessary anyhow so I think your fear here is very much misplaced.

 

As far as ROIC, are you looking in the rearview? Take a look at the ROIC table in the write-up when you get the chance...I think that should remove your concerns in this regard. As far as how far EGD will be able to push prices, its hard to tell but $200/meter at some point going forward seems more than achievable at this point.

 

Would love to get your thoughts on your German investment, must be insanely attractive if its comparable to EGD :)

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AAOI, my sharing of this idea is inspired by your help and detailed write-up of EGD. Although I still have my concerns over EGD, your analysis definitely opened doors for me. Thank you very much for that.

 

Every time I was looking at EGD, I could not help but comparing it to my largest holding, SMT Scharf. The Strangel's review outlined this investment a few months ago. Here are some more thoughts, in addition to the information you can find on the Internet. Many people missed out on Delticom, so I hope this information will lead you to a profitable investment.

 

SMT Scharf is a company specialized in underground transportation in mines. Currently, the major clients are the coal mines. I read a lot of annual reports, so this is an original idea. The income statement remained flat from 2006-2010. However, the international expansion was masked by the severe decline in domestic business. So naturally, this aroused my interest. I think anyone can look at the financial statements, so I'd save my time here.

 

SMT Scharf's products have an interesting twist. For every set of equipment sold, roughly 800k, there is a stream of revenue in the following years. Typically, after the warranty period, the average life of the income stream is 10 years, and 55K every year. Currently, if I remember correctly, the maintenance and service is 40% of total revenue. So basically if SMT Scharf put its equipment in place,  you can expect cash flow over many years. It is even better than the software business. But the story does not end here.

 

SMT Scharf's products address an acute problem, safety in the coal mines, especially in China. Open-pit mining is already a past in China. The mines go deeper and deeper. In inner Mongolia, there were open-pit mines discovered a few years ago. No more. A typical coal mine in China now runs 200 meter deep or more. The deeper the mine goes, the more easily accidents happen. In China, a coal mine accident is more than a normal course of business. It is a political issue with massive public outcry. Every time a coal mine has an accident, nearby mines will all be closed for a few weeks for safety inspection. Top managers of the mine with accident will be sacked. So for a typical accident where 20 workers died, the costs are enormous. The latest compensation is around 100K USD per head. Assuming 5 mines each producing 1 million ton per year are closed for 2 weeks, the lost production is around 200K ton. Assuming 60 USD per ton. The total costs of a single accident is 12+ million. Of course this number is for illustrative purpose.

 

Most of the mines, or most large coal mines today in China are owned by the state. The state assigns a technocrat to manage this mine. An accident not only means the end to a get-rich-fast career(more on this later), it can also lead to criminal charges and prison. So the managers at coal mines have very strong incentive to avoid accidents since they are using other people's money. Underground transportation will lead to around 20% of accidents, although those tend to be minor compared to other causes. I talked to a sales person in China. Normally to move something around 3-5 tons, it requires 15 people a week to finish the work. With the train, it takes 2-3 people an hour to finish the same task. The less people involved, the less likely there will be human error.

 

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The managers of the coal mines earn considerably more than people think in China. Coal is a complicated business because there are two systems. One is the market-oriented, another is policy-oriented. As you may know, there is room for arbitrage. For example, the government dictates that mine A will have to sell one million ton of coal to a electricity generation companies for 500 per ton. However, many coal mines do not want to sell because the market price is way higher than the regulated price. Because the electricity company cannot buy enough coal, it has to raise price one way or another. For example, how about giving 20 per ton more as an incentive for the managers to sell? As long as the market price is more than 20 per ton higher than the regulated price, this kind of gray transaction is unavoidable. For a typical one million ton coal mine, this difference can earn insiders 20 million RMB a year. Of course, this is just one way the insiders in the coal mines making money.

 

The lucrative career in a coal mine is a very strong incentive for managers to avoid accidents, large or small. It is no wonder in many cases, managers or even local governments tried to cover the accident up, sometimes in a uncanny way. A while ago, around 30 people were trapped in a coal mine. Miraculously, after more than 24 hours, most of them were rescued. But some people with sharp eyes pointed out that those people who were rescued were not those trapped in the mine. The coal dirt was put on faces as makeup. In other words, this is a outright fraud to cover up. Believe it or not, this one was reported on CCTV, the national TV station. It seems to me a coal mine accident is even more life threatening to coal mine managers and local government officials.

 

Just today, the Chinese government announced that the electricity price for companies will be 3 cents higher although the price for residents remains unchanged. In addition, the government ordered that the price of coal for electricity generation cannot exceed 800RMB per ton while the market price is around 850. The problem is, most coal mines do not even earn 50/ton. In coal business, the miner sells its production on the spot. Currently, the price is a little over 400 RMB per ton. After taxes and mining costs, the profit margin is 30/ton. Of the 850 per ton terminal price, more than half is all kind of fees and transportation costs. In my opinion, the price limit is very impractical. Coal price in China is going nowhere but up.

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In 2005, the coal price was regulated. Coal was trading around 300 and lots of coal mines were losing a ton of money. After costs and depreciation, the mines earned no economic profits. After the deregulation, the coal price soared. However, the real incentive for investing in mining technology is the consolidation of the sector. There were a few stages in private ownership of coal mines. Before 2002(if my memory serves me well), investors in coal mines did not have the ownership of the mines, but the right to mine coal.  This created an incentive to mine as much as possible and a disincentive to invest anything into the mines. During that period, it was very common to mine one ton and discard two tons because the investors wanted the best possible quality. It resulted huge waste of resources. After 2002, the government permitted the ownership of the coal mines and the investment in the mines went up dramatically, both in productivity and safety. However, the investment soon faded because the private ownership of the coal mines was a very vague concept and was not protected by law. Private investors only put amount enough to boost productivity. As a result, the safety condition of the mines deteriorated again and mine accidents happened more often since the mines went deeper. Then, the government proposed in 2005 that those private ownership should be bought out on a negotiated basis(or forced), and the state-owned mine groups should consolidate those mines and create coal mines with scale. After 6 years, there are a handful of mining groups now controlling the best coal mines in China. Since those mines are managed by state-appointed officials, it is not surprising that they are now investing heavily in anything that can to boost safety and productivity.

 

Another reason for investing in automated mining equipment is that labor costs are rising rapidly. I do not have the exact figure here, but I can infer from other sources, for example, manufacturing. When the coal mines were consolidated, it makes sense to use automated mining technologies because of economies of scale, especially when the mines are geographically close. Again, I do not have a figure as to how much productivity can be gained through the adoption of technology. However, it is very clear that the coal mining industry in China is still very primitive. For a mine producing two million tons a year, two train sets from SMT Scharf represents only a fraction of initial investments. As mines go deeper, the investment becomes even more compelling because there are more occasions at which heavy equipment needs to be hauled. It is hard to imagine people spending one hour just to get to the working location underground and then have to dissemble the equipment and move them by hands.

 

I will continue tomorrow. Time to sleep. 

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The profit margin is thin nowadays in coal mines and the market is competitive. And this is another reason big mines are increasingly using automated mining equipments to reduce costs. Underground transportation is only a small part of those products. SMT Scharf is leader in this niche. The main competitor is Ferrit, a Czech company. I compared the products of both, but could not tell from an amateur's perspective. However, Germany's products are very well trusted in China and people are willing to pay a premium price for that. My father used to be a mid manager in NGC(HK:0658). A big reason why NGC grew from a single factory to a big group today was because of the adoption of Germany machine tool early. I do not have an opinion on the stock itself, but it is kind of funny to reflect those top managers in my mind since I knew them when I was a child.

 

Big Chinese mining groups are introducing SMT Scharf's products into their mines. Among those groups, a group sometimes will assign employees to study other group's business. Do not be surprised. Since they are all stat-owned, it is very normal for sister companies(groups) to learn from each other. When company A see something good in company B, A will try to catch on as fast as it can. If one of the units of a group adopts SMT Scharf's products, it opens a huge market because once the product is tested, group wide adoption will follow quickly. When SMT Scharf announced it sold to a major coal mining group in Anhui, it was an indication that SMT Scharf finally cracked an important market. The latest Q revealed that SMT Scharf received initial orders from other big mining groups. Although the revenue will ramp up later, it is a signal that significant sales will follow.

 

Germany's machines and tools will play a more important role in China's future. In fact, if any country wants to climb the ladder of global economic system, it needs Germany's help. Unlike the US, Germany actually provides important "things" to the world. In my opinion, Germany will perform better in the next few decades because of this strength. Like many of you, I worried about the EU debt crisis. So I bought companies in Germany with revenues in BRIC countries. This is a hedge I feel more comfortable with than holding gold.

 

 

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To understand the coal market in China, it is impossible not to mention the electricity market. While electricity price is highly regulated, coal price is mostly market oriented. I do not know much about metallurgic coal, but thermal coal is the most important resource in China's power generation. There are two parts of the power generation business, generation and transmission. The power generation is very competitive, but the transmission is a monopoly. With a regulated electricity price, the soaring coal price made made many power plants unprofitable. As a result, power plants simply chose not to generate power. Some of you might have heard the electricity shortage in China. It is not the physical shortage. There are enough coal and generation capacity.

 

The government raised the electricity price by 3 cents per KW yesterday. The immediate effect is obvious. Many marginally profitable capacity will be put in use and the demand for thermal coal will go up. However, as long as electricity price is regulated, there will always be shortage in electricity. As I said previously on this board, as the urbanization goes on, the demand for electricity will increase steadily over many years. TV was scarce 2 decades ago, today many households have multiple TVs, computers, air-conditioning and much more. This hunger for power has no immediate cure other than coal. Coal was and will be a big part of China's development.

 

Every year, power plants will fight fiercely against coal miners because for every RMB/ton it saves, it falls to the bottom line. It is just as true to coal miners. Other than state-owned mines, many private-owned mines today are trying hard to sell coal to power plants. It almost always involves bribes and kickbacks. What else can be easier to increase profit than investing in mining technology when other costs are rising? My conclusion is that the more consolidation happens in the coal industry, the stronger the incentive to invest in mining equipment and technology.

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There is a secular wind behind SMT Scharf's business. It will goes on for many years. Chinese are very practical people. Almost every river which is suitable for power generation is used. Wind and solar is the future. However, even if we give them 2 decades, it will not address the need. The only practical solution is coal. Coal is dirty and dangerous. In UK a few hundred years ago, people's average life was 21 years when coal was heavily used in a city which I do not remember the name.  However, people keep using it. The business is getting harder and harder. If China wants to develop further, it has no choice but to heavily invest into products like SMT Scharf's. Many people might worry the slowdown in China. I worry about that too. I always tell people how scary it can get in a financial crisis. My mother went to a shopping mall at the height of the financial crisis. Everything is 70-80% off, yet there were only 3 people shopping on the entire floor. China's demand for coal is everything for this investment to work.

 

Let's go back to the business itself. SMT Scharf's traditional business is underground transportation using disel trains. Last year, it acquired Dosco and another brand in the UK for around 2 million. However, the pension deficit was funded by 180k shares. So the total cost is more like 6 million. The acquisition is very accretive financially. I estimated the acquisition will contribute around 3 million to the bottom line. Dosco is a very well-known company specialized in road headers. It also manufactures equipment for mining coals. At the moment, SMT Scharf is trying to cross-sell its products among the customers. The CEO indicates the company would like to acquire more companies like this to expand its product line. If every acquisition can work like this, then we should buy more shares at every announcement.

 

Currently, there is a bottleneck in manufacturing capacity. The order book went up by 100% compared to last year, but the orders cannot be delivered as required and many were delayed until next year. The company is ramping up the production and that had an impact on profits. I am not worrying too much about it since it is very common during this stage. EBIT margin is over 16% and ROIC is very respectable. Excluding cash, SMT Scharf is trading at 6-8x this year's earnings. For a company that has grown its core earnings at 20%+ over the last few years, this multiple is low. If my reasoning is correct, the demand in China will be explosive over the next few years. When the market's perception changes, SMT Scharf is going to be a home run because of earnings increase and multiple expansion.

 

I wrote all this mostly using my memories. So if the data is incorrect, please point it out.

 

Fan

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  • 3 months later...

Hi Fan,

 

I was digging into your SMT Scharf investment, and it looks like your thesis is already starting to play out, with EBIT margins and profit increasing nicely.

 

Any thoughts on the fact that the CEO left the company? Do you think this will impact the growth story?

 

 

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Hi Fan,

 

I was digging into your SMT Scharf investment, and it looks like your thesis is already starting to play out, with EBIT margins and profit increasing nicely.

 

Any thoughts on the fact that the CEO left the company? Do you think this will impact the growth story?

 

Hey Bart, it surprised me that someone actually paid attention to my writing :P

 

I was surprised that the CEO chose to leave at this moment, but the rational choice for him at this moment, is probably to move on to a better opportunity. Please note this is pure guessing. The CEO owns some shares which were sold to him at low price. However, he had no options and in the last few years, shares were distributed to all employees but him. So financially,  with the current compensation structure, there is very limited upside if he stays on. This is an example where if options are used wisely, good people will be kept on board. As a shareholder, it is hard to say if this is a curse of blessing. At this moment, if he got a good offer with improved compensation, he will probably move on. Dr. Trautwein is still young and it would not surprise me he has the desire to pursue better life.

 

I tried to check out this new CEO on Google but had no idea about him. I am always suspicious about entrepreneur type with a big smile. He sold his company in 2008 and stayed on for a while.  Then he moved to SMT Scharf. The only speculation at the moment is that he might do a deal  when the price is right. Ludowici Limited in AU got competing offers in the last few weeks. Although its business is nothing compared to SMT Scharf's, you can have an idea what a right price will be if there is an offer.

 

I still think the growth prospect for SMT Scharf is good although I do keep an eye on coal price. This is a company offering right products at the right time and in the right places. When I stated I have a hurdle rate of 40% on this board, many of you guys think this is unrealistic. However, I think at today's price, with some luck, 40% annualized return for the next three years is still possible.

 

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Fan, thanks very much for the reply, and you can be sure, your quality posts always get my attention. Congratulations on your Jumbo Interactive call by the way, has been pretty good for you this year ;-) Also closely monitored your Delticom investment, and even bought tires from them not so long ago ;-)

 

Indeed hard to predict the possible impact of the new CEO on SMT Scharf, but I indeed perfectly understand that the previous one might have gotten better offers, after what he already achieved at Scharf. Haven't bought in, and might well regret it in a few years, but mostly because I have a significant portion of my portfolio invested in EGD. The only way I can see this not being a homerun over the next few years is if the price of gold would drop like a rock, but always looking for counterarguments as I'm cautious to become too optimistic.

 

Did you buy any EGD in in the end?

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Fan, thanks very much for the reply, and you can be sure, your quality posts always get my attention. Congratulations on your Jumbo Interactive call by the way, has been pretty good for you this year ;-) Also closely monitored your Delticom investment, and even bought tires from them not so long ago ;-)

 

Indeed hard to predict the possible impact of the new CEO on SMT Scharf, but I indeed perfectly understand that the previous one might have gotten better offers, after what he already achieved at Scharf. Haven't bought in, and might well regret it in a few years, but mostly because I have a significant portion of my portfolio invested in EGD. The only way I can see this not being a homerun over the next few years is if the price of gold would drop like a rock, but always looking for counterarguments as I'm cautious to become too optimistic.

 

Did you buy any EGD in in the end?

 

I had to sell Jumbo due to account consolidation @.44. However, I am totally OK because I am pretty sure I will hold until today if I was not forced to sell. I also had to sell Delticom at 68, and it went up right after the sale. This year so far is a disaster. A managed account with almost totally different holdings has 26% YTD with negative leverage and no derivatives, on top of 20% gain last year. This account more or less represents the true performance.

 

I did buy some EGD in my RRSP account... but only a few hundred shares...  Bart, I am extremely conservative with with any investments I make. In SMT Scharf's case, I can see where it will go and why it will go there. Coal price is a factor, but regardless of it, SMT Scharf should do well in the long run. In EGD's case, I am not so sure. I am not used to that kind of dilution and this story requires tremendous growth down the road the make the ROIC acceptable. Maybe I am just an old guy and too nervous about risks.

 

Well, on the other hand, I did buy into Russia, where people hate and distrust,  through a Swedish equity called Vostok Nafta. It is so funny people are focusing on the short term politics and ignoring the change already in place. I would like to ask, 20 years ago, if so many people had went on street in Russia or China, what would happen? It is naive to believe democracy is always right and dictatorship is always wrong. I do not like Putin, but I think Putin will do a better job to grow the economy than the liberals from the West will. You know when China was run by engineers, its economy expanded 30 years almost nonstop; now that those freaking economists(I think they deserve this word) are trying to give out advice, I could not help but worrying about China's future.

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