FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[TonyG]

i asked tim howard that, says my question is awaiting moderation

[DocSnowball]

Seems unlikely any movement will occur before tax reform.

[investorG]

while I think deep down mnuchin and watt would agree that shareholders have been screwed, it's apparent that they are taking a long-game and methodical approach to this process.  Tsy+FHFA's flexibility increases on jan-1 and even though many of us want to see bravado, they can't mess up tax reform, and the CSR payments for the next couple months at least will likely need to be paid for by Trump.  I do not see something trivial like a DTA writedown due to tax reform derailing their master plans (they could find a creative solution), and so while I would like capital to build immediately, it's less important to me than seeing incremental positive steps like today's language change while not stirring anger in our opponents at the current moment.  the court cases, I believe, are lottery tickets at best, but do provide some important cosmetic leverage for any final deal (see tom cotton's comments in a prior hearing).  I think the common and preferred securities are materially under-valued but admit the need to take some leaps of faith to see any potential positive outcome. good luck to everyone.

[waynepolsonAtoZ]

I listened in to the earnings conference call. Layton really seemed to be trying to set the stage for the end of conservatorship. Basically, they are ready to go and have their act together. And decent earnings.

[rros]

while I think deep down mnuchin and watt would agree that shareholders have been screwed, it's apparent that they are taking a long-game and methodical approach to this process.  Tsy+FHFA's flexibility increases on jan-1 and even though many of us want to see bravado, they can't mess up tax reform, and the CSR payments for the next couple months at least will likely need to be paid for by Trump.  I do not see something trivial like a DTA writedown due to tax reform derailing their master plans (they could find a creative solution), and so while I would like capital to build immediately, it's less important to me than seeing incremental positive steps like today's language change while not stirring anger in our opponents at the current moment.  the court cases, I believe, are lottery tickets at best, but do provide some important cosmetic leverage for any final deal (see tom cotton's comments in a prior hearing).  I think the common and preferred securities are materially under-valued but admit the need to take some leaps of faith to see any potential positive outcome. good luck to everyone.

Measured approach doesn't seem the MO of this administration lol. And we haven't seen much of master plans at work either. More like abrupt surprises, in my view. Cohn just told some bankers next 2 to 3 weeks is crunch time for tax reform. I do not expect Watt to broadcast any of his moves in advance. Just simply come out with an offer Treasury/Congress can't refuse. Similarly, I do not think Trump will wait till next year to cut  the cord on Obamacare. On January 1st the WH would be feeling they have wasted an entire year getting nothing done. That is not Trump. And it is him who -in the end- will move the needle.

[Midas79]

I listened in to the earnings conference call. Layton really seemed to be trying to set the stage for the end of conservatorship. Basically, they are ready to go and have their act together. And decent earnings.

 

I usually don't listen to these but I should make it a point to listen to this one (and Thursday's Fannie Mae call).

 

The encouraging point is that (iirc) Watt has distinguished between housing reform, which is in the purview of Congress, and GSE reform, which is his job. The GSEs are much different companies than they were nine years ago, and by your comments Layton seems to think so as well.

[investorG]

while I think deep down mnuchin and watt would agree that shareholders have been screwed, it's apparent that they are taking a long-game and methodical approach to this process.  Tsy+FHFA's flexibility increases on jan-1 and even though many of us want to see bravado, they can't mess up tax reform, and the CSR payments for the next couple months at least will likely need to be paid for by Trump.  I do not see something trivial like a DTA writedown due to tax reform derailing their master plans (they could find a creative solution), and so while I would like capital to build immediately, it's less important to me than seeing incremental positive steps like today's language change while not stirring anger in our opponents at the current moment.  the court cases, I believe, are lottery tickets at best, but do provide some important cosmetic leverage for any final deal (see tom cotton's comments in a prior hearing).  I think the common and preferred securities are materially under-valued but admit the need to take some leaps of faith to see any potential positive outcome. good luck to everyone.

Measured approach doesn't seem the MO of this administration lol. And we haven't seen much of master plans at work either. More like abrupt surprises, in my view. Cohn just told some bankers next 2 to 3 weeks is crunch time for tax reform. I do not expect Watt to broadcast any of his moves in advance. Just simply come out with an offer Treasury/Congress can't refuse. Similarly, I do not think Trump will wait till next year to cut  the cord on Obamacare. On January 1st the WH would be feeling they have wasted an entire year getting nothing done. That is not Trump. And it is him who -in the end- will move the needle.

 

mnuchin is measured to date -- tax reform process will likely look a lot different than HC.  I agree on obamcare, trump likely wont fund indefinitely -- but congress will likely fund the CSRs starting in September or October as part of a stopgap measure to avoid a complete exchange meltdown.  if premiums go up 40pct on avg nationally (that's what happens if csr's go away), the blowback for R's would likely be too high to manage. 

[waynepolsonAtoZ]

LOL.

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/05/senate-republicans-shutdown-debt-default-239083

[TonyG]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4093131-freddie-macs-fmcc-ceo-don-layton-q2-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=4

 

anyone read the call transcript from this morning?

 

"With that, let me wrap up by saying this is not your parent's Freddie Mac, and anybody who thinks it is hasn't been watching the last five years. The business fundamentals are strong and residual flaws are nearly gone. "

 

layton seems to hammer how they are much different from the past.

[rros]

while I think deep down mnuchin and watt would agree that shareholders have been screwed, it's apparent that they are taking a long-game and methodical approach to this process.  Tsy+FHFA's flexibility increases on jan-1 and even though many of us want to see bravado, they can't mess up tax reform, and the CSR payments for the next couple months at least will likely need to be paid for by Trump.  I do not see something trivial like a DTA writedown due to tax reform derailing their master plans (they could find a creative solution), and so while I would like capital to build immediately, it's less important to me than seeing incremental positive steps like today's language change while not stirring anger in our opponents at the current moment.  the court cases, I believe, are lottery tickets at best, but do provide some important cosmetic leverage for any final deal (see tom cotton's comments in a prior hearing).  I think the common and preferred securities are materially under-valued but admit the need to take some leaps of faith to see any potential positive outcome. good luck to everyone.

Measured approach doesn't seem the MO of this administration lol. And we haven't seen much of master plans at work either. More like abrupt surprises, in my view. Cohn just told some bankers next 2 to 3 weeks is crunch time for tax reform. I do not expect Watt to broadcast any of his moves in advance. Just simply come out with an offer Treasury/Congress can't refuse. Similarly, I do not think Trump will wait till next year to cut  the cord on Obamacare. On January 1st the WH would be feeling they have wasted an entire year getting nothing done. That is not Trump. And it is him who -in the end- will move the needle.

 

mnuchin is measured to date -- tax reform process will likely look a lot different than HC.  I agree on obamcare, trump likely wont fund indefinitely -- but congress will likely fund the CSRs starting in September or October as part of a stopgap measure to avoid a complete exchange meltdown.  if premiums go up 40pct on avg nationally (that's what happens if csr's go away), the blowback for R's would likely be too high to manage.

More than measured Mnuchin seems to be reading from the same script Jack Lew had: "We will work with Congress. I want to work with you, Senator". Congress feels they own the issue, it is their prerogative in their eyes. Mnuchin simply does not want to upset that cart. What appears to be measured seems more like a huge wall hiding something behind it. If so, surprises will be inevitable.

[waynepolsonAtoZ]

Listen to the audio of the Freddie earnings call. Layton sounded optimistic, almost excited, but not giddy.

 

However, they are very unlikely to not pay the Sept. dividend as they are going to go going through a budget crisis by then.

[Luke 532]

The Fannie Freddie Document Treasure Trove

by Richard Epstein

https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardepstein/2017/08/02/the-fannie-freddie-document-treasure-trove/#1491d8992905

[rros]

Listen to the audio of the Freddie earnings call. Layton sounded optimistic, almost excited, but not giddy.

 

However, they are very unlikely to not pay the Sept. dividend as they are going to go going through a budget crisis by then.

So it looks like Layton points at the PIK option as a mechanism for retaining earnings (adding to the liq. preference). If Watt doesn't declare dividends FHFA and GSEs will still be within the legal frame of the PSPAs making any claim by Treasury or Congress a lot less clear, regardless of the 3rd amendment. That would be a smart move w/o having to rock the boat. I am more confident now that this will be Watt's option. Corker will have a hard time arguing against a power conferred to the Director, even after a controversial move. Even though the 3rd does not allow retaining earnings, it does not take away the PIK option.

 

So if Treasury wants to get paid all the net worth, they get more of their coin: sr. preferreds. Meanwhile, companies keep the cash.

[Guest cherzeca]

It appears the next shoe to drop : Judge Sleet may issue a pre determined verdict against shareholders. Just an opinion. Courts are too political.

 

https://law.rutgers.edu/directory/view/gsleet

 

wouldnt it be nice if posters would not post "opinions" based upon nothing at all?

[waynepolsonAtoZ]

The Fannie conference call felt more perfunctory, reading from a script. Not that the quarterly results weren't excellent. One point is that earnings are 25% from the portfolio, 75% from elsewhere. Pretty impressive having these good resulting while reducing the portfolio.

 

The PIK options sounds ok. However, it's not  likely to be this quarter. The Rs will struggle within the party when they get back re raising the debt limit and avoiding default. I suspect that that struggle will take precedence over health care, taxes, and housing, etc.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/07/23/congress-next-big-battles-spending-bills-debt-limit/497477001/

[Luke 532]

Congress wouldn’t do it, so Fannie and Freddie reformed themselves

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/congress-wouldnt-do-it-so-fannie-and-freddie-reformed-themselves-2017-08-03?mod=mw_share_twitter

[undervalued]

We don't live in America if we have Paulson get away with this fraud and mom and pop investors lose their life savings as a result.

 

http://www.fidererongses.com/params/post/1258858/blackrock-document-

 

There were so many people who have gotten away with fraud and mom and pop investors lost their savings, remember the great recession? I think you were about 9 years younger then.

[hardincap]

+1. get used to living in an unfair and irrational world

[Midas79]

+1. get used to living in an unfair and irrational world

 

I forgot who said it in this thread, but I'll paraphrase: "Righteous indignation is a poor investment thesis."

[Luke 532]

Fannie's plans for the retained capital if it is indeed retained...

"To the extent that these quarterly dividends are not paid, they will accumulate and be added to the liquidation preference of the senior preferred stock. This would not affect the amount of available funding from Treasury under the senior preferred stock purchase agreement."

 

Thoughts?

[rros]

Fannie's plans for the retained capital if it is indeed retained...

"To the extent that these quarterly dividends are not paid, they will accumulate and be added to the liquidation preference of the senior preferred stock. This would not affect the amount of available funding from Treasury under the senior preferred stock purchase agreement."

 

Thoughts?

PIK

[Luke 532]

WSJ

Fannie, Freddie Signal Possible Payment Delay as Debt Ceiling Looms by Andrew Ackerman

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fannie-freddie-signal-possible-payment-delay-as-debt-ceiling-looms-1501795451

[rros]

Which of these senators will end up in an Alexander-Hamilton-style duel with Mnuchin?

 

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/27/news/economy/mnuchin-foreclosure-king/index.html

 

And will they use Wogdon pistols, razor chain whips or wushu sticks?

[hardincap]

bruce has reduced stake: http://www.fairholmefundsinc.com/Reports/Funds2017SemiAnnual.pdf

[Guest cherzeca]

bruce has reduced stake: http://www.fairholmefundsinc.com/Reports/Funds2017SemiAnnual.pdf

 

32% of his equity holdings (ex cash) is in FnF in fairx