2021 Top Idea Performance Analysis by Sector and Author Popularity

[bizaro86]

I thought this substack piece was pretty interesting: https://turningroughstones.substack.com/p/how-45-different-best-ideas-played?s=r

 

The author went through the 2021 "Best Ideas" contest on Seeking Alpha. He excluded a few things (warrants, crypto). I'd probably have kept the warrants and excluded the crypto personally, as my investable universe doesn't include crypto but does include warrants. 

 

Contests aren't necessarily a great source of ideas, but I did think it was interesting how he broke the results down by style. It shouldn't surprise this board that value was the winning style, and given the market in 2021 commodities were next. I would have thought growth type opportunities would be better for a contest type situation, as they usually have a higher underlying volatility. I suppose that might make them more likely to win but lower overall average returns. Although he declared the winner a value special situation/oil play (UNTC), which is basically the opposite of a growth stock as they're actively liquidating...

 

I also thought it was interesting (although not especially surprising) that he concluded less popular authors had better returns. 

Edited March 2, 2022 by bizaro86