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My rear view mirror prediction for year 2020


jobyts
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From the sp500 graph shown in

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns

 

since 1930, there were only 3 instances where the previous year was down, current year is up, and the next year is down.

 

Year 1933, 1938 and year 1961.

 

Year 2018 was down, year 2019 is up; there's a historically/statistically high chance that year 2020 would be an up year.

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I've read a number of things along these lines in various places all with the general idea that historically it has been a bad idea to get out of the market and into cash after a year of unusually strong returns as the subsequent year is most often also positive.

 

The usual refrain that time in-the-market is more important than timing the market seems to apply. So accept the losses in bear markets knowing that you're making up for it by not missing out on compounding, especially if you can keep buying good compounders with moats below their intrinsic value.

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Guest oakwood42

I've read a number of things along these lines in various places all with the general idea that historically it has been a bad idea to get out of the market and into cash after a year of unusually strong returns as the subsequent year is most often also positive.

 

The usual refrain that time in-the-market is more important than timing the market seems to apply. So accept the losses in bear markets knowing that you're making up for it by not missing out on compounding, especially if you can keep buying good compounders with moats below their intrinsic value.

 

+1

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