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20180215 Munger on CNBC


kiwing100
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Munger comparing the US to the Roman Empire. Kinda scary.

 

In historical context he's absolutely right about that.  Prior to the financial crisis, US was arguably more than the Roman Empire in its relative standing in the world.  Things have been fraying since. Sooner or later it declines in its relative importance to the world, but the time scale of Roman decline was measured in centuries.  One can argue it happens quicker today because of advances in communications technologies, and the speed of information propagation.

 

In geopolitical terms, US is still the new continent.  For 500 years, humanity has been migrating from Eurasia to the Americas.  There's no reason it stops now.

 

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What is the answer to why the experiment using the best idea of each PM every year did not work?

 

I think I’ve heard Charlie say that the reason it didn’t work is that each manager picked the idea they had done the most work on. He was illustrating a bias that we supposedly have to value most what we have invested the most in. In this case time.

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What is the answer to why the experiment using the best idea of each PM every year did not work?

 

I think I’ve heard Charlie say that the reason it didn’t work is that each manager picked the idea they had done the most work on. He was illustrating a bias that we supposedly have to value most what we have invested the most in. In this case time.

 

Rod is correct.  And human nature being what it is, we cease to be objective, rational and detached/open.  We become the man with the hammer seeing most situations as a Nail [our solution].  Better to be open to other ideas, or open to change our own mind even though we have fallen in love with the work that we did to prove our conclusion.  Facts and results make us Right.  People agreeing with us does not make us right and love of our idea does not make us right.  Only Facts/Results.

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Oh gosh, someone should tell Willow Oak!

http://willowoakfunds.com/select/

 

 

What is the answer to why the experiment using the best idea of each PM every year did not work?

 

I think I’ve heard Charlie say that the reason it didn’t work is that each manager picked the idea they had done the most work on. He was illustrating a bias that we supposedly have to value most what we have invested the most in. In this case time.

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What is the answer to why the experiment using the best idea of each PM every year did not work?

 

I think I’ve heard Charlie say that the reason it didn’t work is that each manager picked the idea they had done the most work on. He was illustrating a bias that we supposedly have to value most what we have invested the most in. In this case time.

 

Do you recall where this was said?

 

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What is the answer to why the experiment using the best idea of each PM every year did not work?

 

I think I’ve heard Charlie say that the reason it didn’t work is that each manager picked the idea they had done the most work on. He was illustrating a bias that we supposedly have to value most what we have invested the most in. In this case time.

 

Do you recall where this was said?

 

It's in the first 10 minutes of this Mohnish Pabrai talk:

 

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What is the answer to why the experiment using the best idea of each PM every year did not work?

 

I think I’ve heard Charlie say that the reason it didn’t work is that each manager picked the idea they had done the most work on. He was illustrating a bias that we supposedly have to value most what we have invested the most in. In this case time.

 

Do you recall where this was said?

 

It's in the first 10 minutes of this Mohnish Pabrai talk:

 

 

Thanks!

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