Primers on crude steel and aluminium markets, production and by-products

[tol1]

Hey, looking for good primers on steel and aluminium markets, production and by-products. Can anyone recommend decent reports?

 

Thanks

 

[tol1]

Anyone please?

[topofeaturellc]

What do you want a primer on? Like this is a broad question.  Wikipedia will give you the basics of production and the respective industry groups produce a bunch of data.  Aluminum is much more split up between upstream downstream rolling while steel is generally more integrated. 

[tol1]

What do you want a primer on? Like this is a broad question.  Wikipedia will give you the basics of production and the respective industry groups produce a bunch of data.  Aluminum is much more split up between upstream downstream rolling while steel is generally more integrated.

 

Under standing the demand/supply dynamics and industry players better. More about the implied economics and understanding the cycle. Wiki is not quite there yet.

[topofeaturellc]

Eh.  Not much to understand. Structurally oversupplied, no growth.  But the world steel council has the data you want.

 

Don't confuse the fact the stocks are up a lot with some structural change to the biz.  And I say this as someone who owns a bunch of them and supply chain guys.  This is just "China isn't insane". It's still a structurally<coc biz.

[tol1]

Eh.  Not much to understand. Structurally oversupplied, no growth.  But the world steel council has the data you want.

 

Don't confuse the fact the stocks are up a lot with some structural change to the biz.  And I say this as someone who owns a bunch of them and supply chain guys.  This is just "China isn't insane". It's still a structurally<coc biz.

 

Tx - Not sure what you are referring to, but steel production (Europe) is growing.

[topofeaturellc]

No it isn't.  And certainly not via blast furnace. Which is mostly what the listed guys do. And you don't really want to own long steel generally as it's much more commodity.

 

Don't mistake a cyclical upturn for a structural change in rates.

[rukawa]

Vaclav Smil is pretty good when it comes to energy. He has a book on steel:

https://www.amazon.com/Still-Iron-Age-Steel-Modern/dp/0128042338/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1524143610&sr=8-1&keywords=still+the+iron+age%3A+iron+and+steel+in+the+modern+world

 

The other thing I would do is the read a history of the industry. Like this one:

https://www.amazon.com/Steel-Mine-Mill-Metal-America/dp/0760347425/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1524143679&sr=1-1&keywords=history+of+steel\

 

That said...I don't think reading any of this will improve your investment ability since all these type of trends and information are understood much better by analysts than they are by you. You won't "win" by understanding an industry better than others.

[tol1]

No it isn't.  And certainly not via blast furnace. Which is mostly what the listed guys do. And you don't really want to own long steel generally as it's much more commodity.

 

Don't mistake a cyclical upturn for a structural change in rates.

 

EAF steel production has been growing. I am looking at the entire supply chain and not just the producers.

[topofeaturellc]

What is your definition of supply chain? The only listed guy is Danieli which is worth a look.

 

Eaf in Europe is a tire fire of irrational Spanish producers.

[winjitsu]

Credit where credit is due, this is from a twitter user called Kong Ming. Old but still good. I'll probably delete this post soon.

Commodities_Primer_-_RBS_2009.pdf

Global_Mining___Steel_Primer_-__UBS_2008.pdf

Global_Steel_Primer_-_RBS_2010.pdf

Steel_Industry_Primer_-_Credit_Suisse_2011.pdf

Valuation_of_Metals_and_Mining_Securities_-_Basinvest_2010.pdf

[tol1]

Credit where credit is due, this is from a twitter user called Kong Ming. Old but still good. I'll probably delete this post soon.

 

Thank you, indeed.