Which Tech Giant Would You Drop?

[Jurgis]

Company-specific analyses are posted on respective stock threads. You are welcome to discuss your assumptions and challenge models by others there. I don't think this thread should engage in specific stock valuations and predictions.

 

I am quite conservative in my models and I don't see a point of posting optimistic predictions, so personally I'm not gonna try to persuade you or anyone else about "greater than single digits going forward". But then I would not do that even for BAC @ $12 or BRK at 1.2 book or any other situation that you might think is very cheap.

 

Take care.

[gjangal]

Shouldn't have used the word bubble myself, what i meant to say was that the comparison to 2000 valuations doesn't hold well.

 

- In my opinion i see atleast FB, Goog and amzn growing double digit revenues the next five years. Whether you ll get a double digit return holding these depends on a lot of factors. AMZN is just crazy valuations

 

- Interest rates, whether they are low or not.

 

- What do they do with the amount of cash on their balance sheets. At 11-15% rev cagr google will have 250B in cash if you look out 5 years, around 35-40% of mktcap in cash maybe abut less depending on a tax haircut. I see google and FB controlling atleast 40% or 50% of global advertising budgets due to their dominance.