Overcapacity or Deflation II ?

[Vinayd]

Sorry ubuy2wron ,

 

I've searching for the article/quote and cannot re-locate it (It was a good article too! - damn).

 

I guess I'll have to retract that statement, and simply state "for a very long time"

 

some bubble timelines to think about:

1. 1929 Stock bubble/crash. recovered to 1929 levels around 1962-64 (was still at 50% of peak around 1952-54)

2. 1980 Gold bubble. recovered to peak in 2007. (50% of peak in 2004)

3. 1989 Nikkei bubble. still at 25%-30% of peak in 2009

4. 2000 Nasdaq bubble. 40% of peak 9 years later.

 

cheers,

Vinay

[twacowfca]

Sorry ubuy2wron ,

 

I've searching for the article/quote and cannot re-locate it (It was a good article too! - damn).

 

I guess I'll have to retract that statement, and simply state "for a very long time"

 

some bubble timelines to think about:

1. 1929 Stock bubble/crash. recovered to 1929 levels around 1962-64 (was still at 50% of peak around 1952-54)

2. 1980 Gold bubble. recovered to peak in 2007. (50% of peak in 2004)

3. 1989 Nikkei bubble. still at 25%-30% of peak in 2009

4. 2000 Nasdaq bubble. 40% of peak 9 years later.

 

cheers,

Vinay

 

 

The second biggest US housing bubble tried to pop in 1927,

but The FED put the petal to the metal and kept it going till 1929.

It probably passed its former peak unofficially during WWII,

but this didn't show up in statistics until after the war because of

wartime price controls.

 

However, if you make allowance for the extraordinary flip flop

of the FED from moderate to loose and then very tight immediately

before the 1929 crash -- plus the wartime restrictions--

the residential bubble might have peaked in 1927 and finally

passed the former peak in about 1947-- exactly 20 years later! :)