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Paulson on M&A in the US Shale and Growth Pharma sectors


Graham Osborn
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Interesting interview by Paulson :

 

 

This was completed just as oil began its great slide from the 100s and the shale producers started to implode.  Pharma took longer, with Valeant not crumbling until summer of last year or under a year from the time of the interview.  Hard to believe this took place less than 2 years ago.

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Paulson is a bozo and his talks bore me crap out of me.  He manages to get himself involved in every massive blow up.

 

I never understood why he wanted to move to Puerto Rico all of a sudden.  He hasn't made any money in years, what does he have to pay tax on? 

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He's been very right one time in his career. He had a very middling track record before the subprime crisis...and I believe the same since.

 

It's interesting.. I watched one interview of him probably within 12 months of selling his CDS positions and he seemed to be playing down the whole issue of bank capitalization.  It seemed like maybe he was afraid of attracting too much attention to himself at a time when AIG/ others were being "bailed out" to pay off himself/ others.  I assumed he was keeping his head down considering what happened to Ackman/ Einhorn/ Burry.  But there is a part of me that wonders if he is a bit of a backseat analyst.

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Paulson was / is a risk arb expert (and perhaps not a great one, but I think he was good).  He lucked into a huge trade in the crisis and parlayed it like many would into a huge business investing in... well, whatever is hot... based on his notoriety.

 

I can't say as I would blame him for this, I think many would have done the same.

 

But looking to Paulson for anything of expertise on investing in general seems unwise.  His place in the market is largely based on chance.

 

If he has some opinion on a big risk arb, I'd probably listen.

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You're right, he has a decent amount of brains to create so much wealth for himself.  But it just blows my mind how badly he top ticks his various concentrated holdings. 

 

I even referenced this before 90% of the VRX debacle.  He top ticked that one too.

 

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/agn-allergan/msg236119/#msg236119

 

I have a couple friends who have a similar investing rule.  If Paulson is super long, just throw the idea away.  I'm totally with them on that one.  He strikes me as more of a sell-side type personality than someone who can really get a handle on these billion dollar long positions.  He's never had to invest in this manner before and it's just crazy to see some of these mistakes he makes... Like selling out of all his BAC or HPQ at the lows. 

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