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Two Infographics on Cognitive Biases


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Notice how the common theme is either creating fictitious information or ascribing too much weight to certain existing information.  The best situations to bet against (either over-bulled or over-beared securities) arise when the prevailing view contains strong assertions.  Strong assertions include words like "definitely," "highly likely," "nearly impossible," "by X date," "for X amount," etc.  People tend to adopt strong assertions in schooling situations, at which point they are most vulnerable to strong contrarian bets.  Of course, an early contrarian is a trampled contrarian just as a late trend-follower is a trampled trend-follower.

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