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Statistics on Tender Offers


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I'm considering making one of my first merger arbitrage bets buying Meda stock. Mylan has put an offer with expected payment in august. The offer is 80% cash and 20% shares in Mylan. Assuming a 5% probability of non-completion and static shareprice of Mylan would give an annualised return of about 14%.


Now I'm trying to analyze if 5% is a conservative estimate. What is the high level probability for a public bid to fail (not considering company specifics)?

Anyone know a site with statistics like this? Googled but came up empty.


What are some things to watch out for in judging the probability of failure? One is obviously acceptance of the deal, but I'm not so worried there since it was a 95% premium and the major shareholders have accepted. Another would be cash position of Mylan. It seems they have some margin. The CEO is talking of further purchases and they have negotiated with companies 3 times as large.

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