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6-7 sigma events


doughishere
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People flock to the United States. Is being born here a sigma event? Latest letter from Buffet he thinks so.....this is the Corner where Birkshire and Fairfax meet is it not?

 

Is thinking somthing over valued. Is that a sigma event? All these "smart" people what's the difference? What does Howard Matks say in his book?...who cares he's a sigma event..I guess

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k, so "sigma events" are only useful if you are primarily concerned with the mean and not the distribution of outcomes. Its a like a quick and dirty measure of surprise factor. But, you know, a bad one.

 

The clearest example of this of the ones you gave is Obama. Someone has to be president, so the surprise factor (as a probability) that someone is president is close to zero, but that it would be Obama specifically would be close to 1 (ex-ante). I would argue this pattern is true with basically everything you named.

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