6-7 sigma events

[doughishere]

Guys like Ackman, Buffett, Munger, Paulson, [insert name here], are they sigma events? Wikipeida fat tail distribution if you don't know what I'm talking about?......Discuss.

[doughishere]

Mark Zuckerberg, Patrick Kane, Lebron James, Kanye West, Gisele, Tom Brady, Tiger Woods, Lady Ga Ga, Sun Zu, [insert Name Here]. Obama. Are they all sigma events?

[doughishere]

Michael Burry a Sigma Event?

[doughishere]

Can anyone quantify how much of their success is based off of others?

[doughishere]

Is picking a winner stock a sigma event? What would Ben Graham say?

[doughishere]

Thinking something is undervalued. Is that opportunity a sigma event?

 

There's smart opinionated people in these forums. Trumpaficate

[doughishere]

People flock to the United States. Is being born here a sigma event? Latest letter from Buffet he thinks so.....this is the Corner where Birkshire and Fairfax meet is it not?

 

Is thinking somthing over valued. Is that a sigma event? All these "smart" people what's the difference? What does Howard Matks say in his book?...who cares he's a sigma event..I guess

[doughishere]

Why are you better than Johnny Manzell or Trump?...silence

[TheAiGuy]

k, so "sigma events" are only useful if you are primarily concerned with the mean and not the distribution of outcomes. Its a like a quick and dirty measure of surprise factor. But, you know, a bad one.

 

The clearest example of this of the ones you gave is Obama. Someone has to be president, so the surprise factor (as a probability) that someone is president is close to zero, but that it would be Obama specifically would be close to 1 (ex-ante). I would argue this pattern is true with basically everything you named.