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Uccmal
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Peter Hodson is a good writer (very pragmatic): 

 

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/five-reasons-the-stock-market-is-just-plain-weird

 

I love the part where he compares investors/analysts to the weather forecasting a few years ahead, or hockey prospects 5 years away. 

 

If you had told me 5 years ago that we would have even lower interest rates now I would have laughed.  In fact, I have locked in my mortgage rates for five years twice in that time period, due to worries about rates rising. 

 

Similarly, of you had told me in 2008 that oil prices would drop this low, I would have said its possible, but not likely - all the rage was Peak Oil. 

 

Since I have been investing: (20 years) we have:

- had the tech crash

- had a housing bubble

- had a financial crisis

- had a worldwide bailout

- The US has gone from budget surpluses to the largest Debt to GDP since WW2

- bbry was the consumer tech company,  followed by Apple

- Facebook and Google were invented and went public

etc. etc. etc.

 

My conclusion is that anyone who thinks they can predict the future is grossly deluded, including me.

 

And, isn't this what its all about.  Graham and Buffett, with their different incarnations, have always invested according to what is, rather than what might be. 

 

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And, isn't this what its all about.  Graham and Buffett, with their different incarnations, have always invested according to what is, rather than what might be. 

 

Quite so,  Peter Drucker always said, you need to look out the window to see what is.

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