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Crispin Odey's global macro call


ni-co
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I found this interesting:

 

For me the shorting opportunity looks as great as it was in 07/09, if only because people are still looking at what is happening and believe that each event is an individual, isolated event. Whether it’s the oil price fall or the Swiss franc move, they’re seen as exceptions.

 

After the 1987 crash, a friend of mine, then a young Director of Sotheby’s, was sent to consult an old Partner who had been at Sotheby’s during the 1930s and was still alive, albeit in a nursing home. My friend asked the question “What was it like in the 30s?” and the man replied “It was like being bitten by a tarantula.” My friend didn’t really understand that, but later on in the conversation the old Partner said “A spasm of activity followed by a death.”

 

My point is that we used all our monetary firepower to avoid the first downturn in 2007-09, so we are really at a dangerous point to try to counter the effects of a slowing China, falling commodities and EM incomes, and the ultimate First World effects. This is the heart of the message. If economic activity far from picks up, but falters, then there will be a painful round of debt default.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-27/equities-will-be-devastated-crispin-odey-warns-looming-recession-will-be-remembered-

 

(ZH… – I know, I know. Yet, in contrast to ZH, Odey is no "perma-bear" and they had the most comprehensive excerpts from his investor letter)

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