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Entry point for FFH


netnet
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I have a small position in Fairfax--not being an insurance maven, I can only guess at what a great entry point is say, 1.2 or lower.  But an investing friend said to me, "well if you don't know a great entry, how would you know a great exit, plus you are always talking about circle of competence and you are in a name in which you can not rattle of the 3 biggest threat to the business, other than lack of underwriting discipline." (not that that is a problem, though the CR has never been great)

 

Well, I kind of mumbled about how I read all the AR's from the last 25 years and no one knew in 1965 what glory Berkshire was going to have and knowing the textile business would have steered you far from the business.  And the entry in India could be really huge with a vast population and an relatively inefficient capital market.  So he said, "OK it's a jockey stock, fine.  You believe in the jockey who has a record, fine. There seems to be a long runway, with lots of optionality.  Still what is a buy price and what is a sell price?"

 

My response to that was with good compounders, trying to time an entry probably gets you worse results and won't matter that much over the really long term.

 

(But, quiet now, what is a good buy price?)

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