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stocks vs. farms during inflation


matjone
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If I am understanding Buffett correctly, farms are better than stocks during periods of inflation.

 

I'm basing this off his essay on inflation, in which he says that he does not expect  ROE to rise with inflation, and the discussion in this year's letter about his farm purchase in which he said that when he bought his farm he expected yields to rise and prices to increase. 

 

Looking at the lower quality numbers here: http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2013/07/returns-and-cash-rents-given-prices.html, it seems that farms in my area run about a 30% profit margin.  And looking at historical yield data here: http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2012/02/the-historic-pattern-of-us-soy.html, it looks like yields about doubled in 50 yrs, which is about a 1.4% annual increase.  Assuming 4% inflation, your revenue would grow at little better than 5.4%, and your costs would only grow at 4%, so your coupon would actually keep pace with inflation and then some, vs. the equity coupon, which provides no protection against it.

 

Am I missing something here?

 

 

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