finetrader
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Posts posted by finetrader
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About 14%. And pretty happy with the result.
i've been surfing on BAC and AIG for the past three years. I think next year will be harder than this year, considering US index are at all time high.
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For the Canadian Oil Patch what are some if the best buys in terms of management; debt/equity; size, etc.
Whitecap (WCP-t) is a very well managed company.
I'm looking closely (even bought some today) at Canadian Oil Sand(COS-t) as it is a leveraged pure play on the price of oil.
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This saga involving Prem, Fibrek & Resolute..
I just thought that was poorly executed..
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I bought Hyundai preferred on the LSE (using IB) this morning. An opportunity I couldn't passed on.
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I believe that someone who gets to do what he enjoy in life, and this can take the form of investing full time, and not having to go out and do a work he doesn't like, is a happier human being. And I also believe that a happy man can make 10 persons around him happier.
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Yeah!
1-0 Canada
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Any hockey fan in here?
This game USA vs CANADA is epic!
The pace of the game is crazy! Amazing players
Who's gonna win?
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Maybe he listened to Daft Punk before writing this article..
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I envy your location on this globe!
I've always like California!
That's this feeling of envy that keeps me warm in my condo here in winter Montreal, Canada.
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i don't have proof for this, but I believe that the fact that smoking pot can more easily leads to tougher drugs than alcohol is because it is illegal and that the people you would spend time with to get access to pot would be the same that have access to tougher drugs (cocaine and others).
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I manage my wife's RothIRA but let's be honest -- it was my money that went into the account in the first place, given that she spent all of her income.
Do you get paid in any way? In nature? ::)
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Up about 40% here , good old BAC & AIG provided most of those satisfying results.
Good old, but there seems to be some nice juice left in those names. Hopefully, they delivered in 2014 as I'm planing to hold onto it.
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I'm gonna to try an another way to value the market. And I know there is many flaws in this thinking. But I like doing those line of thinking to give me gross idea for things:
Pre crisis, the S&P500 peaked at about 1525 in july 2007.
Obviously, earnings were boosted by leverage, bad loans,etc..
The market was overvalued at that time because even if P/E was reasonable, (E)arnings were overstated.
US Banks profits specially, were overstated because they were booking profits while the poor loans they were making were sitting on the balance waiting to materialize into future losses.
Dick Bove said in december 2012 that US banks would post their highest earnings ever in the fourth quarter of that year at a collective $38 billion. See this article:
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Bove-banks-record-profits/2012/12/18/id/468160
If we assume that today's bank profits are solid and real compared to 2007, then this mean that it took 5 1/2 years to return to same profitability than 2007. So following this logic, we could say that at the end of 2012, Intrinsic value for S&P500 was 1525. Add in 7-8% profit growth and this gets you to 1525*1,08=1647 IV for S&P500 today.
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In fact, the market has traded at 16x expected earnings many times in history without the presence of excess liquidity being created by the Fed.
This is true but the anticipated growth was higher than it is today. USA is coming to maturity in term of development.
I am in the camp that we are in a "new normal" environment with normal growth of 2-3% instead of 4-6% it used to be.
And as you know growth is a big input in determining the right P/E multiple to assign on earnings to get IV
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Be yourself and have a goal to get away with a kiss on your first date, that's the attitude I would have.
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My most costly mistake so far has been to not buy BAC when it dropped to 5$, because some "pros" were saying that when the stock would dropped below 5$, it would dropped even further because some funds would have to sell it...
So i've been too greedy in wanting a lower price even though I knew it was a great bargain at 5$. And of course when you are that greedy you don't buy at 6$ because you tell youself you could have buy at 5$ a week ago. At least I bought some good chunks at 7-8$ on the way up.
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A few years ago on Mont-Royal street in Montreal there was 2 Second Cup coffee shop an no Starbucks, and financials of SCU were doing fine. Today, I've notice that there is now three Starbucks coffeee shops near those two Second Cup on Mont-Royal. And SCU financials results are now struggling.
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I believe that the reason you cannot short in a RRSP or TFSA is because you cannot go on margin in those accounts.
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Rite Aid results are improving but I'm afraid the stock price is fully valued right now.
It also look quite expensive on an EV/EBITDA ratio.
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One of the best exemple of investing in common in a leverage company is SCI. In early 2000 they went on crazy acquisition spree, overpaying, etc.. and leveraging themselves. Then they started having problem servicing their debt. But is you looked at the cash flow statement you could see that they had lots lots of FCF. They sold a few cemetary and lowered their debt. I bought the common at around 1,75$ at that time and sold at 2,75$ a few months later. Was very proud of myself until I looked at it again lately...
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I'm thinking that with EM currencies devaluation, from which S&P500 companies derived a portion of their profits from , and with rising long term rates which will eventually lower corporate profit because of higher interest payment, that this does not bode well for record profit margin that US corporation has enjoyed lately.
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S&P500 yield is what 6% and 30 year US bond is 3.75%. A 2.25% spread is not what I call extreme.
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Didn't you hear? I guess you were at the rest room. Bernanke just sang the 'take me out to the ball game' anthem.
Oil Oil, everywhere
in General Discussion
Posted
I have looked quite extensively at the numbers of a few Canadian oil producers, namely Canadian Oil Sand, Whitecap Resources, Baytex. And if oil averaged 75$ a barrel in the future(5-10 years), those stocks are probably fairly priced.
What I want to say here is that, 100$/boe was probably too high because this has led to an oversupplied market. 50$/boe is probably too low because no one is making money (other than the Saudis and few others)
That is why I'm coming with price in the middle ->75$/boe.
But in this scenario, even if oil stocks have decreased significantly ( 50% and more) they don't interest me because I can't find the 1$ for 0,50$ that a value investor is looking for.
So I prefer to stay on the sideline for now.
Just sharing my thinking with you here.
Ftr