BG2008
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Posts posted by BG2008
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FMBL trades 0.77x book, 11-12x earnings, and has 2x+ the amount of capital to be well capitalized, and has close to $10B $8B of deposits across just 25 branches, 40 ish % of which are non interest bearing. The attraction of FMBL is a function of how much one values safety and over capitalization of that excess capital will never be returned to you. I value it because even if never returned it makes the earnings stream safer.
Staying with the theme of illiquid overcapitalized SoCal family go’s, LAACZ seems reasonable to me. Whether you think PMV is $3K/share or $4K plus, $2500/ share = 4% yield growing at mid single digits with an option on some kind of change.
Even hair cutting Apple, Berkshire continues to be very reasonable priced.
In a world where SPACs trade at 20% premium, EQC at 93-100 cents of NAV offers reasonably priced optionality.
BSM and DMLP offer close to 10% yields with direct exposure to hydrocarbon price/volume with low to no leverage. Can still be bad investments though if production collapses.
I actually think GOOG and FB, even MSFT are not unreasonably priced. Not cheap, certainly some tax and regulatory risk, but, not crazy to me.
Multi family REITs (including non urban) are at 5 caps and can borrow at 1-3% and have low leverage.
What I don’t understand about the 50%+ cash crowd is I think there are plenty of securities out there that are highly likely to preserve amd grow purchasing power over time out there. I don’t think any of the above will CAGR at 15% for the next 10 years, but I’d be surprised at less than say 6% (unless say EQC doesn’t find a deal).
Laacz is a great cash/bond alternative if you don't run a fund. Since I run a fund, I decided to not want to sit around and wait for a K-1 form to be mailed to me in Mid March
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Chemicals, Real Estate, materials, etc all up
DuPont, Univar, Corteva, etc Indus,
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I don't think many would argue that Giuliani did some fine things as mayor. But that doesn't mean you can't also judge his actions over the last ten years in a negative way. People change. Rudy has not aged well.
Yes, Rudy was well respected then but now has become a shadow of his former self. Blasio is simply not able to govern the city effectively in a time it really matters (like Rudy did around 9/11/2001).
I think there will be a big reset coming, one way or another.
Well, let's not forget how Big Mike got us through the GFC
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This kind of shit really scares me despite having a large concentration of my wealth in both private and public NYC real estate plays. The truth is that middle/upper class people may want no bail, equality, diversity etc. The reality is that if this becomes an expected outcome on a daily basis, you can kiss rent collection and rent growth goodbye in NYC. It's not like this is a marginal area like the Bronx. This is motherfucking 5th Ave and 21st Street. The best investment in the next 10 years may be gated communities in Florida as lacking in character as they are. When you examine the pyramids of needs, safety is at the bottom. I'm going to keep monitoring this. But I may bail out of my NYC position if this becomes a thing. At times like this, I really do miss Bloomberg as mayor. DeBlasio has been terrible. I am worried that there is not mayor candidates who is going to reverse this trend. There was a great reddit thread once that talks about "perception of risk by a group of teenagers". I think our society cuddle teenagers too much. The reality is that a group of 14-20 years risk perception has not been fully developed. They don't fully understand consequences at that point. Our society is currently giving a blank check for youngsters to destroy and hurt people and property without the threat of jail time. Why the political rant all a sudden? Well, it affects the investment thesis of owning RE in Florida. Redneck Riviera looks a lot more attractive at the moment. Should've bought some Joes.
you are likely not old enough to remember the Dinkins administration...squeejee men who would spit on your car if you didnt pay them to clean your perfectly clean front windshield. take it from me, things will get worse before they get better in NYC. I dont see any sanity on the near horizon
I am old enough to remember squeezy man, mob controlled everything, and not wanting to be in now very nice parts of Brooklyn. I also remember the gangs of Chinatown. I remember a time when both liberals and conservatives hail Rudy as cleaning up the city. It's bizarre for me to see how much people hate Rudy today. I am very liberal when it comes to who gets to have sex with who and whether you can have abortions or not. But I am conservative when it comes to law and order and fiscal stuff.
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This kind of shit really scares me despite having a large concentration of my wealth in both private and public NYC real estate plays. The truth is that middle/upper class people may want no bail, equality, diversity etc. The reality is that if this becomes an expected outcome on a daily basis, you can kiss rent collection and rent growth goodbye in NYC. It's not like this is a marginal area like the Bronx. This is motherfucking 5th Ave and 21st Street. The best investment in the next 10 years may be gated communities in Florida as lacking in character as they are. When you examine the pyramids of needs, safety is at the bottom. I'm going to keep monitoring this. But I may bail out of my NYC position if this becomes a thing. At times like this, I really do miss Bloomberg as mayor. DeBlasio has been terrible. I am worried that there is not mayor candidates who is going to reverse this trend. There was a great reddit thread once that talks about "perception of risk by a group of teenagers". I think our society cuddle teenagers too much. The reality is that a group of 14-20 years risk perception has not been fully developed. They don't fully understand consequences at that point. Our society is currently giving a blank check for youngsters to destroy and hurt people and property without the threat of jail time. Why the political rant all a sudden? Well, it affects the investment thesis of owning RE in Florida. Redneck Riviera looks a lot more attractive at the moment. Should've bought some Joes.
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As soon as spring arrives and along with it, the 20-something year old chicks in short skirts w/ their tits out....people will remember what made NYC great!
Plastic surgery?
I think you are thinking of Texas and California
But to Greg's point, I distinctively remember back in 2005, I was failing at my first gig and my coworkers and I was sitting outside during the spring. It has been a brutal winter and we had a 55 degree day and was the first sign of Spring. All a sudden, the ladies dressed up and all of our hormones started raging. Thanks for bringing back a fun memory from 15 years ago.
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I live in suburb CT.
Met a few new people in our town recently.
All moved from NYC.
It’s driving our local real estate mkt to a bull market.
Many houses that haven’t been sold for a couple of years are sold at top prices.
Some NYCers who were renting and couldn’t buy anything at NYC came here and bought a house in a month.
Definitely have been hearing a lot of that lately. Long Island, CT, NJ, etc. I think there are 2 factors at play. 1) No vaccine at the moment 2) the average age in the city is likely higher at the moment
I think there is a natural purge going on where it hasten the family of 3-4 to buy a house. I still do think that the city has a lot of elasticity. Again, let's see what summer of 2021 leasing look like.
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as I walk the streets of NYC, plenty of moving tucks with boxes going in, not coming out
This winter is going to be tough. Let's see what happens when people get vaccinated. If people don't move back in summer or fall of 2021, I will have to change my mind. NYC is not enjoyable in the current form, well obviously.
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Average GEOS was high $5s. Started buying around $6.50 and pyramided into about a 2% position in the mid 5s.
Either lucky or good, who cares right? Strange though seeing a pretty legit, almost net-net type US listed company like that. Chart looks good and I'm hoping we push towards $8 for the rest. Setup still seems there, but I'm getting a little skittish with the market and also building a new core position. And also as discussed, dont want to marry this bitch.
If I learned one thing about O&G investing in the last 10 years is that you "rent" them, you never "marry" them. Size them small and diversified. Your mental health will thank you greatly in the end.
I’m finally getting my thick skull to realize that. Have wasted way too much time trying to make money off O&G in the last 15 years.
Everytime, I am like "if this goes down, I will back the truck up." I never have the balls to do it when it actually happens. I am no smarter today than 10 years ago because who knows what oil price will be and you have to play game theories involving the Saudis, Russia, US and Venezuela. Berry Global (plastic packaging) prints 2-4% organic volume increases in the middle of a pandemic and pays of almost a $billion of debt in 2020 and it trades for single digit P/FCF in 2020 and still trades at 7-8x P/FCF. Why bother with O&G. Although GEOS as a net-net is probably a decent allocation because liquidation will bring about 80% upside which means you should sell after a 20-30% bounce.
Sold out of my GEOS. No idea why it swing up 40%. Have been selling in the 7s and now the 8s. Rent them, don't marry them.
Okay this one is now up 50% in about 5 days. No regerts!!
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Renters return to Manhattan, driving 30% gain in new leases in November
People got bored in the boondocks, demand is elastic, young people can't stand living with their parents and want their freedom/get laid
Sounds like a thesis that could endure. Enclosed malls, won't touch them with a 10 foot pole.
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Renters return to Manhattan, driving 30% gain in new leases in November
People got bored in the boondocks, demand is elastic, young people can't stand living with their parents and want their freedom/get laid
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Starter in ALCO and MAA, shorted some ZM. Added to BYND puts.
Greg,
Curious about BYND strikes and expiration date. Thank you for the GEOS trade. I'm fully out. But that thing is on fire! Holy shit!
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Average GEOS was high $5s. Started buying around $6.50 and pyramided into about a 2% position in the mid 5s.
Either lucky or good, who cares right? Strange though seeing a pretty legit, almost net-net type US listed company like that. Chart looks good and I'm hoping we push towards $8 for the rest. Setup still seems there, but I'm getting a little skittish with the market and also building a new core position. And also as discussed, dont want to marry this bitch.
If I learned one thing about O&G investing in the last 10 years is that you "rent" them, you never "marry" them. Size them small and diversified. Your mental health will thank you greatly in the end.
I’m finally getting my thick skull to realize that. Have wasted way too much time trying to make money off O&G in the last 15 years.
Everytime, I am like "if this goes down, I will back the truck up." I never have the balls to do it when it actually happens. I am no smarter today than 10 years ago because who knows what oil price will be and you have to play game theories involving the Saudis, Russia, US and Venezuela. Berry Global (plastic packaging) prints 2-4% organic volume increases in the middle of a pandemic and pays of almost a $billion of debt in 2020 and it trades for single digit P/FCF in 2020 and still trades at 7-8x P/FCF. Why bother with O&G. Although GEOS as a net-net is probably a decent allocation because liquidation will bring about 80% upside which means you should sell after a 20-30% bounce.
Sold out of my GEOS. No idea why it swing up 40%. Have been selling in the 7s and now the 8s. Rent them, don't marry them.
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The best part about IB is if you call in to their "trade desk", you'll probably get the order in right as the internet login gets fixed.....in about an hour!
IB's help line is absolutely atrocious. If you have a client with 8 figure accounts and you put them on hold for 20 minutes. They are bound to leave in frustration over time. But I have also just invested a ton in learning how to use their algos.
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Trimmed the GEOS and some more CRSP, paid down some margin and bought a little GS.
Any news for GEOS to trade up 30% since that day of forced selling?
Only news I saw was the $6 to ~$8 move which in a round about way screamed, "ALWAYS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF FORCED SELLERS!"... I've trimmed position down again to about half; I think the rest I'll layer out of in the 8s. I would not be surprised to see a sale of the company though. The buyback was actually intentionally, or unintentionally, brilliantly timed as well.
Thank you IBKR outage for forcing me to hold this into the $8s, still can't log in though
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Trimmed the GEOS and some more CRSP, paid down some margin and bought a little GS.
Any news for GEOS to trade up 30% since that day of forced selling?
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As soon as possible which probably means that medical providers would have taken it for an additional quarter or so which by that point it would have more data. Frankly, the comfort of knowing that the vaccine protects 95% will be big mental relieve.
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Bought back all the GEOS I flipped. Selling here is purely related to boot from the index. Volume is great for once too.
I second GEOS. Bought a little bit and followed Gregmal into this. It's great little trade sized at 1%. That's exactly what it should be, no more no less. Trade up 15-20%, dump it. Trade down, buy a little more. Liquidation is $11, but you know what they say about cigar butts.
Sheet, man. I guess you know what I did with a nice chunk of my position today then....
Thanks for reminding me. I guess 15% in 6 round trip is the same as 90% or something like. Plus, you don't get mad at your stock not working.
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Bought back all the GEOS I flipped. Selling here is purely related to boot from the index. Volume is great for once too.
I second GEOS. Bought a little bit and followed Gregmal into this. It's great little trade sized at 1%. That's exactly what it should be, no more no less. Trade up 15-20%, dump it. Trade down, buy a little more. Liquidation is $11, but you know what they say about cigar butts.
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Hi Gang,
If I wanted to put unique identifiers in a pdf presentation, what is the best way to do so? Say if someone signed a NDA and then they wind up sharing the info. If the presentation gets distributed, the unique identifier will allow me to figure out who violated their NDA. Is there a feature in the Adobe Acrobat that permits this? I have noticed that law firms have these numbers on the bottom. Not sure if they are unique to each client or to each file.
Is the easiest thing to do here to put a water mark that says created solely for client X or Y? Thanks in advance.
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Average GEOS was high $5s. Started buying around $6.50 and pyramided into about a 2% position in the mid 5s.
Either lucky or good, who cares right? Strange though seeing a pretty legit, almost net-net type US listed company like that. Chart looks good and I'm hoping we push towards $8 for the rest. Setup still seems there, but I'm getting a little skittish with the market and also building a new core position. And also as discussed, dont want to marry this bitch.
If I learned one thing about O&G investing in the last 10 years is that you "rent" them, you never "marry" them. Size them small and diversified. Your mental health will thank you greatly in the end.
I’m finally getting my thick skull to realize that. Have wasted way too much time trying to make money off O&G in the last 15 years.
Everytime, I am like "if this goes down, I will back the truck up." I never have the balls to do it when it actually happens. I am no smarter today than 10 years ago because who knows what oil price will be and you have to play game theories involving the Saudis, Russia, US and Venezuela. Berry Global (plastic packaging) prints 2-4% organic volume increases in the middle of a pandemic and pays of almost a $billion of debt in 2020 and it trades for single digit P/FCF in 2020 and still trades at 7-8x P/FCF. Why bother with O&G. Although GEOS as a net-net is probably a decent allocation because liquidation will bring about 80% upside which means you should sell after a 20-30% bounce.
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Average GEOS was high $5s. Started buying around $6.50 and pyramided into about a 2% position in the mid 5s.
Either lucky or good, who cares right? Strange though seeing a pretty legit, almost net-net type US listed company like that. Chart looks good and I'm hoping we push towards $8 for the rest. Setup still seems there, but I'm getting a little skittish with the market and also building a new core position. And also as discussed, dont want to marry this bitch.
If I learned one thing about O&G investing in the last 10 years is that you "rent" them, you never "marry" them. Size them small and diversified. Your mental health will thank you greatly in the end.
LOL, this is hilarious and impeccably timed on my end via pure accident. Took a little chips off the table today actually. Like I said, rent O&G names, don't marry them.
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Average GEOS was high $5s. Started buying around $6.50 and pyramided into about a 2% position in the mid 5s.
Either lucky or good, who cares right? Strange though seeing a pretty legit, almost net-net type US listed company like that. Chart looks good and I'm hoping we push towards $8 for the rest. Setup still seems there, but I'm getting a little skittish with the market and also building a new core position. And also as discussed, dont want to marry this bitch.
If I learned one thing about O&G investing in the last 10 years is that you "rent" them, you never "marry" them. Size them small and diversified. Your mental health will thank you greatly in the end.
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50% of PLTR 200% gain
70% of NIO 270% gain
I'll play with house money from here :o
I thought there was supposed to be a rotation into value happening ;D
Lots and lots of money can be made in bubbles. Just make sure YOU rotate into value before everyone else! I agree on the house money strategy. You can make many multiples of your investment but can only lose 100%. Huge advantage if you know what you're doing.
I trimmed some of my GEOS position today and took off another 1/3 of BEAM.
Greg,
Great call on GEOS. Just curious what your cost basis was. I bought a little at $6. Great set up in terms of price and activism etc. This is the classic Ben Gramham bucket sized at 1%.
What is Reasonably Priced
in General Discussion
Posted
Berry Global - Scale plastic packaging at 8x P/FCf and 8x EBITDA is very reasonable when they can borrow at 1-2%
Alexanders - NYC office with 8 year lease to Bloomberg is very reasonable. Probably 50 cent dollar.
INDUS - Former Griffin, is trading at NAV. But you get the optionality that the CEO and new chairman maybe able to turn this into a multi-bagger
Most multi-family REITS
GOOG/FB - Don't own any, but very reasonable
ASPEN - Very affordable online nursing with high gross margin growing 40% topline a year trading at 3x next year revenue.
Berkshire, Fairfax (Although I don't own any)
Howard Hughes is probably worth $150 and trades at $80. Will like long time for market to agree with me
ANGI is reasonable - It's a good call option on if they can build a market place for home repair, recommend smaller allocation 1-3% and see if it "right tail" for you
Univar - About 8.5x 2022/2023 P/FCF after they fully integrate the acquisition of Nexeo
There are plenty of still very cheap and reasonable stocks out there.