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jacobwolinsky

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Posts posted by jacobwolinsky

    Bill Ackman Starts New Company

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    this is really old news.

     

    How is this old? The company just started. I have no idea why its in the UK, maybe tax reasons?

     

    If you consider Feb 2011 just starting, then yes it is new. It is most likely UK based because this is Berggruen's baby, not Ackman's. Berggruen has raised 1 maybe 2 UK SPACs already and this is just another iteration.

     

    Hi Sdev,

     

    Thank you for clearing that up. I did not think it was new bc I thought it was 11, I asked a friend who is analyst at distressed hf in London and follows Ackman if he could confidentially find out more information. At the conference Ackman talked about the company for maybe 3 minutes. My friend couldnt find any info, neither could I. He thought it was new. Ackman does not even show up as one of the shareholders (as of yesterday at least). You seem to know this company well so if you have any insights please share.

     

    Hey Jacob,

     

    I just read about it a while ago when I was reading about Berggruen. He has a really interesting story, and if you look up his wikipedia, there are some great profiles on him. They talk about some of the SPACs he's done in the past and one of them most likely mentions the Justice SPAC. All in all, I don't think there's anything particularly special about it, aside from the fact that it may be selling at a discount (I haven't looked at it). I think Berggruen's last SPAC didn't do so hot if my memory serves me correctly, but overall his track record has been amazing.

     

    Thanks Sid, appreciate the explanation. I am also not interested in this stock, but am curious about the story. Will find some more info about Berggruen. I appreciate the help.

    Bill Ackman Starts New Company

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    this is really old news.

     

    How is this old? The company just started. I have no idea why its in the UK, maybe tax reasons?

     

    If you consider Feb 2011 just starting, then yes it is new. It is most likely UK based because this is Berggruen's baby, not Ackman's. Berggruen has raised 1 maybe 2 UK SPACs already and this is just another iteration.

     

    Hi Sdev,

     

    Thank you for clearing that up. I did not think it was new bc I thought it was 11, I asked a friend who is analyst at distressed hf in London and follows Ackman if he could confidentially find out more information. At the conference Ackman talked about the company for maybe 3 minutes. My friend couldnt find any info, neither could I. He thought it was new. Ackman does not even show up as one of the shareholders (as of yesterday at least). You seem to know this company well so if you have any insights please share.

    Interview with top value manager

    in General Discussion

    Posted

     

    While inception may be important, they are only underperforming vs the S&P in the 5 year number.  The mid cap blend does outperform over the 5yr and 10yr, but that is an unfair comparison as they are an all cap fund.  Holding the likes of MSFT and INTC.  2008 was a tough year, and clearly erased a lot of alpha.  Since 1975, they have outperformed, which is pretty impressive.  Their 3yr number is very good and everything under and including the 1yr number is solid.  You can continue to have your own opinion about the fund, but the story is solid and there are few funds that invest the right way. 

    George Soros “Expect Civil Unrest”

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Keep in mind that Soros was born in the 1930’s depression. He saw first-hand the impact on family, he saw that in Europe the depression only really ended with Germany re-arming, & he knows what it is to have to run - & have to leave almost everything behind.  He knows his topic; the audience – not so much.

     

    All the kings horses, men & women believe that the crises can be ... managed .... with enough time & money. Wide-scale sub-prime collapse in the US, wholesale austerity contraction in Europe, repeated material bank bail-outs, multiple sovereign debt collapses, youth unemployment at 20-25%+, etc.  Market players need only minor reform, & what has happened far away (Arab Spring) could not possibly happen here. Back then the market players were Carnegie, Van De Bilt, Mellon, etc - & what happened far away ..... was an assassination in Serbia. Been there, done that, twice.

     

    Repress high unemployment for an extended period & you get regime change. Often disruptive (Egypt, Libya, Syria), & the new really no different than the old. But when you rely on their exports (oil), & large portions of their population are guest &/or illegal workers in your country – those causes become your causes, & spread like wild fire if you have similar conditions. And European history has repeatedly shown that when disruption is wide spread, bad things happen. Post WWII we’ve had the UN, the IMF, & the Euro to hold the place together .... & all of them are evidencing signs of not being up to today’s demands. 

     

    The US & Canada are not islands, but they are far enough away that most of the damage will be ‘over there’ versus ‘here’. As in WWII you may lose men, money, & materials in large numbers – but your productive capacity remains intact (it isn’t bombed every night). How you use that capacity changes dramatically, but the fact that you were able to adapt your use, is what pulls you out of the depression. Adaption to industrial & social disruption is what the US & Canada is very good at. 

     

    With euro GNP contracting, unemployment/hopelessness can only worsen & the possibility of wide-spread & higher % Icelandic style debt repudiation can only increase. Iran closing the Strait of Homuz & sending oil to $150/barrel+ may be enough to tip it over the edge .... & finally make the crises unmanageable.

     

    The specifics may have been different in Soros’s early days, but the overall look & feel may well be largely the same. Given that most trust their gut over their head, it is nice to see that he’s speaking up.

     

    SD   

     

    Good point. He experienced it first hand growing up in Hungary. Psychological factors are always at play, even for the best investors.

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