Liberty

http://bovinebear.blogspot.ca/2014/08/s-500-triples-in-5-years.html Putting the past 5 years in historical context.

Very good interview, thanks cubsfan!

Gotta get your edge where you can! It all compounds!

Canadians are getting screwed, probably because there's a lot less competition in most industries up here. Retailers might complain about the US being over-retailed, but it has benefits for customers.

Yeah, the realtor boards are shameless, but honestly I can't really blame them... their job is to sell houses, not provide an objective view of the market. Nobody expects a car salesman to give you objective and unbiased advice. Blaming realtors for pooping out dubious market data is like blaming a bird for pooping on your car. That's their job... it's just what they do. Now the media on the other hand... their job is to inform the public and to ask hard questions of authority. So seeing the media just regurgitate the realtors' bad data without questioning it at all is pretty galling. They are either complicit or lazy. And the CMHC, well... I'm not sure even they know exactly what their raison d'être is anymore. But you'd think an agency that is ultimately backstopping most of the residential mortgages in Canada would have some decent data on the internal dynamics of the housing market. But apparently not. I also blame the media and the regulators, but I don't think realtors are blameless, even if there's no surprise in their behavior. Lying isn't a good thing, y'know.

Timing is always hard. A lot of people thought there was a tech bubble in the mid 90s and had to wait for years before it burst. Some even changed their minds, capitulated, and bought near the top. What we have to remember is that the market doesn't have to do anything on a schedule that is convenient for us, but the laws of economics haven't been repealed either.

Vancouver's the worst in the country, but the epicenter of a crisis doesn't even have to start there. It's about sentiment (certainly not about fundamentals -- look at multiples of incomes and rents), so if the market blows up first in Toronto or elsewhere, you can be certain that Vancouver people will take note and proceed to freak out in turn.

This. Exactly this. But what we do know is that if most of the data comes from realtors, it's going to be heavily biased to help them, not the other way around. That's why they quietly revise last year's numbers downward to make this year's numbers look better or double and triple count sales just because they've been listed in more than one place and stuff like that.

Garth Turner writes a lot about the so called 'hot-asian-money' and how it isn't nearly as much as most people think. Lots of media and realtor hype and little substance on a scale that could prop up the whole market. Many Canadians of Asian ancestry are being mistaken for foreigners too.

In the same way that the stock market is (somewhat) forward-looking, I think the RE market is. So you won't need a lot of people to lose their shirt before things turn, you'll just need a change of sentiment; people who don't think anything bad can happen change their mind and realize that trees don't grow to the sky. Anything could be a catalyst. Then the marginal buyer who doesn't think twice today about getting a gigantic mortgage will evaporate. Otherwise, what will it be? In 10 years everybody making 65k will live in 2-3 million dollar houses? While similar houses in the U.S. go for maybe 400k?

And where is Japan's real estate market now compared to where it was at its peak? Not that it matters. Canada is very different from Japan on so many levels, I don't think it's a very useful country to compare it to.

Thanks for sharing. This is what capitulation near the top smells like, I think. Reminds me of the Citigroup exec: "As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance."

Let me suggest an appropriate title for the review: "Intern reviews boss's book and likes it" You're absolutely right.

Review of the book: http://www.beyondproxy.com/book-review-education-value-investor/

Have you looked into low-lying plants that cover the ground and never grow much? http://eartheasy.com/grow_lawn_alternatives.htm http://www.gardenista.com/posts/fields-of-green-5-favorite-lawn-substitutes

No idea, but it's always something. "When something can't keep going, it will stop," as they say.

The most common profound thoughts that pop into my head while trying to stay focused: - I wonder how much time is left on the clock. - My eyelid/ankle/elbow is itchy. - In a guided meditation: It feels like he hasn't said anything for a long time. Maybe the audio track got paused. - In a guided meditation: Wouldn't it be funny if he suddenly screamed "BOO!"? - I'm doing it! I'm doing it! I'm maintaining focus! Oh wait, oops... ;D

I have been doing some meditation for about a month now, most of the time with my wife in the evening. I haven't been doing it every day, and mostly just 10 minutes at a time (the first few time we played the Sam Harris guided meditation audio, and after that we didn't because we had pretty well internalized the concepts), but I really like it. I think I'll try to be more disciplined about doing it more often. It's really interesting how a lot of ideas pop into your mind when you're trying to just focus on your breathing and the moment. Not always mind-blowing ideas, but still, it seems like trying to calm your mind frees a creative part that gets drowned out at times because you're always actively thinking about stuff and never passively just letting it roam around. I feel like still quite the beginner in this, but I'd recommend it to others. Just google Sam Harris guided meditations or check earlier in this thread and give it a try.

http://m.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424127887324616904580108330021565828?mobile=y Barrons piece on Greenblatt. Not much new.

Other companies problems don't make the new like Berkshire does either. Exactly. "GE fined a million bucks for some paperwork thing" is not something anyone will click on, but "Buffett screws up" gets the eyeballs.

I'd be curious to compare how many fines and regulatory problems Berkshire had against other companies worth 100s of billions... I doubt zero is a realistic number for any of them.

Thank you Max! Much appreciated! :)

http://basehitinvesting.com/the-stock-market-a-look-at-the-last-200-years/

I can't even begin to unravel the non-sequiturs. I think I'm done for now.

http://hoydenabouttown.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/inigo-montoya_that-word.jpg (Replace "word" by "argument"...)