Poor Charlie

Liberty, I have no problem at all with that.

Moore, I have them in .zip file. PM your email and ill send them to you.

Scorpion was kind enough to send me the pre-2003 letters. PM me your e-mail and ill send them your way.

PaulD. This is a great question and one I have been trying to figure out myself. In terms of the sustainability of Overstock’s partnership business I’m not sure I’m smart enough to figure out the sustainability of any tech company business over the long term. I do find it reassuring that Amazon’s partnership business has been around for a while and Overstock seems to be doing alright. Patrick talks about online retailing being like Lake Michigan with enough business to go around for everyone. I think as long Overstock can execute it will be difficult for them not to grow top line by 10%-20%. My biggest concern is expense control, which in a low margin business is the difference between making $10m and losing $10m. If they can grow 10%-20% and control costs they will do very well.

For those interested in Mike Burry you can find his message board posts from the late 90’s here: http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/profile.aspx?userid=690845

Myth, thanks for posting the slides. I find SD to be a very interesting company and would love to know the logic behind Watsa’s purchase. I am curious as to what some of you think the likelihood of an SD buyout is. The Century Plant would put OXY near the top of the list inmo.

Myth, thanks for the response. The Ken Peaks link was very helpful. I remember reading somewhere that in his divorce he let his ex have his ongoing salary in exchange for not giving up any equity. Must really believe in Contango. A few more basic questions on E&Ps: -What does a typical well decline curve look like? SDs Midcontinent wells come online at around 300boepd, peak at around initial production, and produce 300-500mboe total. Are these results comparable to other onshore U.S. (Permian,Bakken,etc)? Also how long does a typical well produce? Read that Permian legacy assets have +30 years of production potential while as Roundball mentioned frac is very short. -How economic is tertiary oil recovery (CO2,water,well downspacing)? OXY has had very good success with these but don’t hear much from anyone else. Do they have the same potential as frac’ing to increase oil production? -When Tom Ward and others talk about 50% RoR in the Permian and +100% RoR in Midcontinent are they referring to the entire life of the well?

Hi everyone. I would like to begin by saying I have been following this board for some time and am very happy to be a member of your community; I just hope I will be able to contribute meaningfully while I’m here. I have noticed many of the recent conversations have been about E&P companies (atpg,pbn,sd,chk). I have no experience with E&Ps and was wondering how you all approach determining intrinsic value for these companies (FCF,BV,PV-10,M&A??). Even at $90/bbl many E&Ps have low (no) earnings, outspend cash flow, and have little/negative book values. Is this a distortion due to the accounting methods (full cost) or are E&Ps really doing this poorly? According to the company presentations new wells are generating great roic (+50%), why is this not reflected in the #’s? Thanks for any responses! Poor Charlie